[IRT_BMT_IND]

^Just one little thing that may be guiding their thinking: the number of people in the country from this area has surged over the last 10 years.

Maybe, but there are lots of other considerations, like:

• How many business class seats do you expect to sell.
• How many frequent fliers do you expect.
• What are the opportunities for connections vs. O&D.
• What is the opportunity cost of sending an expensive 777/787 on a long haul to Lagos or Joburg vs. somewhere else.
• Can the safety of crews on layovers be guaranteed (to the satisfaction of the crew members themselves and the unions).
• Are there security concerns from Canada regarding direct flights to some of these places (probably not as there are direct flights to the US, but not impossible either).
• Are there local political and regulatory concerns (for instance can you convert local currencies freely back to CAD - AC got burned in this in Venezuela).

And more. Likely AC has a good idea of what the answers to most of these questions are.

 

[nfitz]

Likely AC has a good idea of what the answers to most of these questions are.

I'm not sure where the sudden assumption of AC competence came from. They can't even run a competent baggage operation - let alone the stuff where you have to think.

 

[Adjei]

Maybe, but there are lots of other considerations, like:

• How many business class seats do you expect to sell.
• How many frequent fliers do you expect.
• What are the opportunities for connections vs. O&D.
• What is the opportunity cost of sending an expensive 777/787 on a long haul to Lagos or Joburg vs. somewhere else.
• Can the safety of crews on layovers be guaranteed (to the satisfaction of the crew members themselves and the unions).
• Are there security concerns from Canada regarding direct flights to some of these places (probably not as there are direct flights to the US, but not impossible either).
• Are there local political and regulatory concerns (for instance can you convert local currencies freely back to CAD - AC got burned in this in Venezuela).

And more. Likely AC has a good idea of what the answers to most of these questions are.

I wonder how United which flies from Newark to Joburg and Cape Town, from Washington DC to Accra and Lagos and start Dakar from May is able to make it work ?

Or Delta which flies from New York to Dakar, Accra, and Lagos ,from ATL to Lagos, Cape Town, and Joburg?

Or the numerous airlines from Europe and the Middle East which fly there ?

 

[rdaner]

^Another little thing is that a lot of people do not want to travel through The States.

 

[Richard White]

What's funny is that Air Canada made big claims in the past that the 787s would open up vast new frontiers in South America, Africa, and Central Europe.

For years Air Canada Rouge had direct Toronto to Budapest flights but those were canceled just prior to Covid. The thinking was that they would return at some point but 5 years later that has yet to happen.

 

[Amare]

For years Air Canada Rouge had direct Toronto to Budapest flights but those were canceled just prior to Covid. The thinking was that they would return at some point but 5 years later that has yet to happen.

Which were done with their 767s and not 787s.

 

[Woodbridge_Heights]

What's funny is that Air Canada made big claims in the past that the 787s would open up vast new frontiers in South America, Africa, and Central Europe. Frontiers that they couldnt serve since they claimed they were limited by the 767s. Yet here we are years later, big talk with empty results.

Now they are claiming that the A321LRs and A220s will open up frontiers for them to do Trans-Atlantic and Central American flights respectively. Normally i'd say it's big talk, but since Air Canada is always looking to screw their customers at every level, I see that talk as being more believable since they will be able to cram more people into smaller aircraft frames, thus saving them money. They would then be able to redeploy some of their 787s and A330s elsewhere, but where that would be is beyond me with their thought process.

For years Air Canada Rouge had direct Toronto to Budapest flights but those were canceled just prior to Covid. The thinking was that they would return at some point but 5 years later that has yet to happen.

The question is how many additional 787's did AC order above and beyond replacing it's long haul fleet at the time of the 787 order? If there was simply a one to one replacement than there wouldn't be scheduling room to add new destinations. I don't know how to look up the history of AC's fleet, which aircraft are moved out/retired, which are moved in, and the net change in number of aircraft. Nor do I have the time to look it up.

I do know that AC has in recent years added new routes to smaller markets. Eg. YUL-NAP, YUL-OPO, YOW-LHR.

 

[Deadpool X]

I wonder how United which flies from Newark to Joburg and Cape Town, from Washington DC to Accra and Lagos and start Dakar from May is able to make it work ?

Or Delta which flies from New York to Dakar, Accra, and Lagos ,from ATL to Lagos, Cape Town, and Joburg?

Or the numerous airlines from Europe and the Middle East which fly there ?

The answer may lie in the number of Africans that live in or travel to US, compared with the numbers in Canada.

 

[drum118]

The question is how many additional 787's did AC order above and beyond replacing it's long haul fleet at the time of the 787 order? If there was simply a one to one replacement than there wouldn't be scheduling room to add new destinations. I don't know how to look up the history of AC's fleet, which aircraft are moved out/retired, which are moved in, and the net change in number of aircraft. Nor do I have the time to look it up.

I do know that AC has in recent years added new routes to smaller markets. Eg. YUL-NAP, YUL-OPO, YOW-LHR.

This is your friend for Finding things

 

[Amare]

This is your friend for Finding things

Good find, I forgot about this website.

The question is how many additional 787's did AC order above and beyond replacing it's long haul fleet at the time of the 787 order? If there was simply a one to one replacement than there wouldn't be scheduling room to add new destinations. I don't know how to look up the history of AC's fleet, which aircraft are moved out/retired, which are moved in, and the net change in number of aircraft. Nor do I have the time to look it up.

I do know that AC has in recent years added new routes to smaller markets. Eg. YUL-NAP, YUL-OPO, YOW-LHR.

I remember at the time Air Canada placed the 787 orders, they were planning on a 1:1 replacement roughly (the plan was for them to retire all 767s and A330s and replace them with the 787). Looking back to the fleet around the time of the 787 order, this was Air Canada's fleet (from their MD&A in 2010). They were also positioning themselves to replace all their Airbus aircraft with Boeing aircraft.

https://www.aircanada.com/content/dam/aircanada/portal/documents/PDF/en/quarterly-result/2010/2010_MDA_q4.pdf

Today, not only have they matched the number of 787s that they planned on replacing 15 years ago, they now have exceeded their wide-body fleet totals from those 2010 numbers (basically they have an additional 18 A330s that they originally never intended to operate after all 787s were to be delivered).

So in other terms, they have had the ability to increase international destinations to other international destinations they have longed talked about but for whatever reason they consistently choose not to (part of the reason I know is because they have increased frequencies on Asian destinations, and other reasons have been silly ie: putting 777s and 787s on long-haul domestic routes to squeeze competition):


Air Canada 2010 Fleet:

Air Canada 2016 Fleet:

Air Canada 2025 fleet:

 

[Tim MacDonald]

There is still a huge shortage of lift across many carriers worldwide that will take some time, for different reasons, to resolve.