[Adjei]

I don't see the use now of phasing in the stations. It's not as if we they will be ready for the Pan Am games or something else significant. It's already late so just finish it up besides if they try to phase it in, it may even end up costing more money.

 

[muller877]

I don't see the use now of phasing in the stations. It's not as if we they will be ready for the Pan Am games or something else significant. It's already late so just finish it up besides if they try to phase it in, it may even end up costing more money.

And the Region of York funded $350M vs $525M for the city of Toronto. In fact, the York proportion is disproportionately higher than Toronto's given the distance in each jurisdiction and the number of stops in each jurisdiction (Steeles is on the border so 2 1/2 in York and 3 1/2 in Toronto).

If I was in York I would say fine, if you want to delay the opening to our city (even though we funded it), then you don't get our money. Toronto would have to find not $400M but $750M.

I would love to see the contract. It was the TTC that coordinated the trades, not York Region. Does anyone know if the TTC is responsible for paying the costs overruns (vs York)?

 

[nfitz]

Why do you think the price keeps on skyrocketing? Poor management as a result of incompetence is just a part of the problem. Look no further than Quebec...

Skyrocketing? You sound like it's constantly been creeping upwards. The price estimate before they started was $2.63 billion. This is the first change we are seeing to that. And it's not yet clear if that's because they want to speed things up.

There's certainly no suggestion of criminality, and I fail to see the basis for such statements. It's been no secret for 50 years that the mob runs large-scale construction in Quebec. This has never been the case in the GTA. The mob can only run construction if they can make sure that they control the low-bid, and they inflate it. They've never been able to pull this off in Ontario, and the continued presence and success of large multinational firms here (unlike in Quebec) is evidence of that. The mob might well have it's fingers in a paving contract here and there - but not jobs this large.

I'd think much of the extra cost is because of the delay in spending the money - spending was supposed to be complete in 2015. Now it appears to be 2017. Also now with talk of opening part of the subway before the other, it means that costs for some work will be more, because you can't just do it once.

 

[wopchop]

The schedule delay is clearly the reason for the estimated cost overrun. The TTC itself, on March 26th 2008 (see link) estimated the project to cost $2.63 billion (in $2015), which falls in line with the article from the star. Since the project completion is being delayed from Fall 2015 to 2017, this will undoubtedly increase the costs, as the article itself confirms.

The final tally will depend on how quickly the TTC and the city want the project done, said TTC board chair Josh Colle, councillor for Eglinton—Lawrence.
“How aggressive do we want to be to get this back on track,” he said.
Toronto and York Region would be on the hook for those additional costs. But given the longstanding, extensive issues with the project it wouldn’t be unreasonable for Ottawa and Queen’s Park to chip in a commensurate amount, said Colle.
“If it’s the will of York Region, Toronto and the TTC to get this in line with the targets that have been set, it’s going to cost a lot of money,” he said, citing accelerated work schedules and increased labour costs..

They are clearly saying that to meet the 2017 completion date will necessitate more spending, as now they are spending $2016 and $2017 dollars, and the price of any extra labour costs or overtime to meet an accelerated schedule.

I don't understand the confusion here.

If you dig into this further, you can start to see what happened. Construction of the subway was delayed by 16months due to funding issues, and the schedule was never adjusted (see Toronto Star article). Does anything think this wouldn't possibly affect the overall cost of the project, of final completion date?

The subway extension into York Region has suffered setbacks almost since work began in 2010. The subway construction started 16 months late due to funding issues and the schedule was never adjusted to account for that, said Byford

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

What a joke. Suburban Subways are a waste of time.

 

[1overcosc]

If there's ever been a solid argument in favour of P3 financing and against TTC control, this is it. Everything the TTC does in-house gets delayed and cost-overrun.

All future transit projects in Toronto better be P3.

 

[Rainforest]

IMO, they should follow the path that minimizes the overall construction cost.

If it is cheaper to open the Finch West and York U stations in 2017, and the remaining stations in say 2019, they should do that.

But if it is cheaper to open the whole line in 2018 or 2019, they should select that option.

No reason to rush either section.

 

[MrsNesbitt]

Even more than a solid argument against TTC control of things, this is a solid argument against suburban subways, just like Den said. On the evening news tonight we were treated to a lengthy clip of John Tory prattling on about how "furious" he is at this. Well, let's see him put his money where his mouth is: clean house at the TTC and never waste money on a suburban subway again. Gonna do that? Nope, didn't think so.

I know that Tory is the wrong target for frustration over the TYSSE, but there is so much backwards thinking from this city and province that it's hard to take sometimes.

 

[wopchop]

This could easily be an argument against TTC-control, but I don't see how this is a solid argument against suburban subways.

A downtown subway could just as easily (or arguably much more easily) go over budget and behind schedule as a suburban subway can.

 

[lead82]

This isn't about urban or suburban subways but pure incompetent management of the project. Why did construction have to stop for Ministry of Labour to investigate the death? It should not take 6 months. Why was the schedule delay not accounted for and contractors asked to accelerate work to catch up? The project had ample contingency and it was burned up rapidly. Why? Oh high water table bullshit excuse. All Toronto has this issue and it should have been scoped and accounted for. Oh contractor delays, well who wrote the contract and why are there no penalty clauses for delays?

I understand that some delays are unexpected but to burn through a 20-30% contingency (on a 2.6B project is madness. This recent cost overrun is another 15% extra.

This is insanity. We could have built 10 St Clair ROWs for that price. The question to ask is why Toronto continues to waste money on pet projects but stalls and delays absolutely critical ones like the Relief Line. Instead of spending money on overbuilding Spadina and Scarborough, and Sheppard, we could have had a DRL built by now and LRTs running in the suburbs for the same amount of money. It would serve more people and we would have downtown capacity for growth. Instead we have a broken transit system that teeters from disaster to disaster. It is almost daily that part of a line is down for repairs, signal problems, hydro, weather you name it. We have no alternatives and it's the passengers who get the short end of the stick. Eventually it will get bad enough that business and residents will leave town and Toronto will stall and start to have lower quality of life.

 

[nfitz]

Why did construction have to stop for Ministry of Labour to investigate the death? It should not take 6 months.

Good questions. But hardly in the control of TTC.

 

[rbt]

If there's ever been a solid argument in favour of P3 financing and against TTC control, this is it. Everything the TTC does in-house gets delayed and cost-overrun.

All future transit projects in Toronto better be P3.

One of the causes of price escalation with TTC is that they tender first and sort out engineering later. The provinces alternative (design+builds) results in a ton more engineering work being done upfront (you need to prove a problem does not exist to get a low tender) defers tenders by 12 to 18 months on smallish projects, possibly 2 years on a subway scale project. Construction inflation comes out pretty damn close to what the TTCs claimed cost overruns are; and incidentally most of that cost overrun is to accelerate the now delayed schedule which a P3 would not have prevented as those delays were outside the control of the contractors.


Elected parties in power really like P3s because it's nearly impossible for the a new government to change direction. It gives them power beyond their elected terms. It's a bitch if, like the Vancouver Canada Line, you mess up the contract (public was promised bored tunnel for minimal interruption but the contract didn't force it so contractor went with cut&cover; city took economic hit, contractor saved a few pennies) or like the gas plants you do want to change direction.


How often do you see P3 style setups (replace the "public" with a purchasing company) in private business? AMD doesn't have a 3rd party design+build+operate a fab then take it over 20 years later themselves; it's basically a rent to own.

 

[k10ery]

O
How often do you see P3 style setups (replace the "public" with a purchasing company) in private business? AMD doesn't have a 3rd party design+build+operate a fab then take it over 20 years later themselves; it's basically a rent to own.

Great post, but your last point is red herring. P3s are meant to solve problems in the public sector - so of course private firms don't use them (except as JVs). P3s do give better cost control than traditional cost plus, but they also make it harder to sell us a project by low-balling cost estimates, and they force government to use transparent accounting and focus on the bottom line. All things that the TTC and CIty clearly need to have forced on them.

A case in point: the Air Rail Link project was originally a DBFOM P3. It was only when SNC Lavalin found out that they couldn't make money that Metrolinx took it over and created the UPE. Well ok not how it's supposed to work but at least the P3 structure created some transparency, and it gave the politicians an off-ramp - which sadly they were too dumb to take...

 

[ksun]

At the end of the day not that big of a deal considering it is an investment that will be paying off for many years.

speechless about such comments. Just let every project to be 10years delay and 100% over budget, who cares as long as they will pay off for many years. Do you care about the cost of installing your furnace is $5000 or $8000 as you will use it for 20 years, guess no?

 

[TOareaFan]

I think you win the "post that moves the farthest" prize...you start with

This isn't about urban or suburban subways

and get, in fairly quick fashion, to

Instead of spending money on overbuilding Spadina and Scarborough, and Sheppard, we could have had a DRL built by now and LRTs running in the suburbs for the same amount of money. It would serve more people and we would have downtown capacity for growth.