[Surrealplaces]

Do we have a thread for this project by Truman in Yorkville?

Pretty much what MichaelS said, it's the same for me. I usually don't make threads for greenfield projects, as there are so many, but if there is a particular project of interest, we can make a thread. Most of the greenfield stuff is usually part of an overall development that is mostly multi-family like Trinity Hills, West District, etc..

 

[Surrealplaces]

I like to check out old pics of Calgary. Sometimes things look better, but other times they don't and I feel good about the progress that's been made in the past 50 years.

Calgary 1975

 

[Dārayavauš]

Bit out of the loop on downtown and the population growth, but I just read that Calgarys Downtowns population grew from 38,663 in 2016 to 46,763 in 2021. That’s quite impressive, especially considering the downturn we experienced. I’m assuming the population now would be closer to 50,000 in 2025.

The numbers above reflect the Greater Downtown neighbourhoods

• Downtown Core
• Downtown West
• Eau Claire
• Chinatown
• East Village
• The Beltline

Given this number predates a lot of office conversions that will increase the number of residential units in the downtown core alone, plus with the Central Station and Events Centre getting built out in Victoria Park with the master plan and rapid growth, what is the population going to reach in the next 25 years by 2050?

Do you think it will be getting close to 75,000?

Not sure if there is an official plan on what the population target by 2050 is, but that’s my conservative projection. What does everyone think?

 

[RolleyMakr_168]

Bit out of the loop on downtown and the population growth, but I just read that Calgarys Downtowns population grew from 38,663 in 2016 to 46,763 in 2021. That’s quite impressive, especially considering the downturn we experienced. I’m assuming the population now would be closer to 50,000 in 2025.

The numbers above reflect the Greater Downtown neighbourhoods

• Downtown Core
• Downtown West
• Eau Claire
• Chinatown
• East Village
• The Beltline

Given this number predates a lot of office conversions that will increase the number of residential units in the downtown core alone, plus with the Central Station and Events Centre getting built out in Victoria Park with the master plan and rapid growth, what is the population going to reach in the next 25 years by 2050?

Do you think it will be getting close to 75,000?

Not sure if there is an official plan on what the population target by 2050 is, but that’s my conservative projection. What does everyone think?

I definitely think the development of the Rivers District will definitely play a major role in the growth of Greater Downtown. Once Scotia Place is complete- just think of all the opportunities for development in the area. The Beltline too will play a major role.

75K is a good estimate- I would argue as high as 83K if we were really pushing it.

 

[Dārayavauš]

I definitely think the development of the Rivers District will definitely play a major role in the growth of Greater Downtown. Once Scotia Place is complete- just think of all the opportunities for development in the area. The Beltline too will play a major role.

75K is a good estimate- I would argue as high as 83K if we were really pushing it.

Can’t wait to see all the development that will come downtown. Lots more vibrancy on the horizon.

Wouldn’t mind seeing the numbers even higher, but I doubt that will happen

 

[UrbanWarrior]

I'd guess considerably above 50 k now honestly, given the growth between 2016 and 21. The downtown population definitely increased more in the last 4 years than it did then. I'd bet about 53 - 54,000.

 

[Surrealplaces]

Hard to tell what the DT and Beltline population would be today but I would bet easily over 50K.

Here's the changes individually for each core neighborhood from 2016 to 2021. Interestingly enough EV and Downtown CC actually lost people, but the others especially the Beltline had solid growth.


Beltline 21958 - 25880 (16985)
Downtown Commercial Core 8758 - 8225 (4925)
Downtown West 2344 - 2825 (1625)
Downtown EV 3242 - 3140 (2110)
Chinatown 2104 - 2250 (1145)
Eau Claire 1666 - 1875 (1135)
38,663 in 2016 to 46,763 and a total of 36,170 residential units in 2021, which works out to roughly 1.3 people per unit.

I can't think of any new buildings for Chinatown or Eau Claire since 2021, but there are a few for the other neighborhoods,
EV
- Arris 3rd and 5th west tower (337 units)
Core
- Sierra Place (108 units)
- Cornerstone (112 units)
Downtown West End
- West Village towers (554 units)
Beltline
- BLVD (650 units)
- Nude (177 units)
- Park Central (462)
- Hat @ 14th (239 units)
- Oliver East tower (405 units)
- UPTEN (277 units)
- West Tenth 1400 (106 units)
11th + 11th (369 units)

......and going by the addition of 3,796 units and a rough estimate1.3 people per unit, we get 4,935 people, a conservative estimate which puts us well over 50K I say conservative estimate because the greater downtown grew by 8,100 people from 2016 to 2021 with less development. The true population is probably closer to @UrbanWarrior prediction of 54K.

A couple of things to note. Not all of those buildings are full, and conversely I didn't add buildings that were opening up around census time Redstone (137) or Telus Sky ( 326) 935 5th (66 units) also I didn't add Oliver II and its 461 units as it's only recently opened. Another factor would be how many people may have taken on roommates in this time of increased rent prices. I don't know anyone personally who has but have seen it mentioned a lot on social media.

 

[Beltline_B]

This part jumped out to me:

Purchase price was $46,500,000, according to commercial real estate brokerage Avison Young, who brokered the sale on behalf of GWL Realty Advisors, which acquired the property from the Bank of Montreal in 2005 for a reported $188 million.​

Seems like some more realistic valuations of office buildings are helping spur some more opportunities. It's been a long time waiting for those over-priced buildings to water down to something that transacts. Exciting to watch a new era in downtown get (slowly) started.

It’s pretty shocking looking at the price difference, but talking to my brother in law about it he says the $46 mil was GWOs break even price given the lease revenue over the years.