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Actually, about a quarter of the LRC cars are in fantastic shape. The 23 or so LRC cars that were done by IRSI are good for another 15 years or so - if needed to be. It's the rest of the cars that are the problem.

The other problematic fleet is the HEP2s. Despite their stainless steel construction, most of the cars are suffering from side sill rot due to poor maintenance prior to VIA's ownership. They've only got another 5 years or so left in them. The Siemens fleet can't come soon enough.

Dan
Toronto, Ont.

Correct me if I'm wrong here. I thought that the LRCs that were rehabilitated have structural issues too. My understanding is that the structural issues were cracks in the aluminum frame. Unlike steel, aluminum is brittle, and cracks, and cracks cannot be fixed. I've only heard this from on-train VIA employees and never in any official documents, so my information could be wrong.
 
Just up at the Globe:
VIA ‘confident’ Ottawa will support new passenger rail lines following $1-billion purchase of new trains

BILL CURRY
OTTAWA
PUBLISHED 2 HOURS AGO UPDATED DECEMBER 14, 2018

After this week’s purchase of nearly $1-billion worth of new trains, VIA Rail President Yves Desjardins-Siciliano is setting his sights on the Liberal government’s 2019 budget in hope that it will green light a multibillion-dollar expansion of its passenger rail network.
The Crown corporation’s plan has strong support at the federal cabinet table from Infrastructure Minister François-Philippe Champagne, who told The Globe and Mail this week that he is convinced of its merits.
Via’s proposed “High Frequency Rail” project – or HFR – would see the installation of dedicated passenger rail lines along the Quebec City to Toronto corridor – and possibly further west to Windsor, Ont. – so that travellers are no longer left waiting along the line as freight trains receive priority on the current lines owned by other companies, primarily CN Rail.
Mr. Desjardins-Siciliano told The Globe on Thursday that he expects a decision will be made early next year, either with traditional infrastructure funding or through the new Canada Infrastructure Bank.
“We’re still confident that a decision will be made on this file by the government of Canada early in 2019,” he said.

Via Rail announced on Wednesday that it is awarding a $989-million contract to Germany’s Siemens for new passenger rail cars and locomotives that will be manufactured in Sacramento, Calif. The decision was sharply criticized by Canada’s Bombardier Inc. – which had submitted a competing bid – and by Canadian labour leaders who said the contract should have supported local jobs. Federal Transport Minister Marc Garneau said Canada’s international trade obligations prevent Ottawa from favouring domestic firms.
Via’s proposal for dedicated passenger lines would cost at least $4-billion. The cost would rise to about $6-billion if the line is equipped to run trains using electric power.
Over the past three years, the Liberal government has offered tentative support for the idea with in-depth studies, but it has not fully endorsed the project.
Mr. Champagne, who represents the Quebec riding of Saint-Maurice-Champlain that would benefit from a new passenger rail line between Montreal and Quebec City along the north shore of the St. Lawrence River, told The Globe he is “totally” behind VIA’s plan.
“It’s in line with our vision for reducing greenhouse-gas emissions, it’s in line with our vision to promote public transit and, for me, it’s a great tool [for] empowering labour mobility,” he said.

Mr. Champagne is a key voice at the cabinet table as the government weighs its options for big infrastructure spending items that could be announced in 2019, a federal election year.
One of the challenges in terms of timing is that federal officials view Via’s project as a potential candidate for funding through the infrastructure bank. The new Crown corporation has a $35-billion budget, but has only funded one project. The bank is designed to operate at arm’s length of government. As a result, its leadership may not be moving at a pace that coincides with the Liberal government’s desire to announce infrastructure projects in the run-up to the fall 2019 election.
Some passenger-rail advocates accuse Via – and Ottawa – of thinking small. The HFR plan is based on running the new, traditional-style passenger trains at top speeds of about 177 km/h with frequent departures. That is very different from full high-speed passenger trains that can reach speeds of 250 km/h or more. However, high-speed rail is much more expensive because of the need to eliminate at-grade crossings with intersecting roads and rail lines.

There are also questions about the proposed routes. Rather than running parallel to the existing CN Rail lines between Toronto and Montreal, a new HFR line would run from Toronto through Peterborough, Ont., toward Ottawa and then on to Montreal. On the Quebec side, Via’s existing service along the south shore of the St. Lawrence River would be complemented by a Via-owned track linking Montreal and Quebec City along the north shore. The federal studies – which have not been released – included looking at extending the plan through Southwestern Ontario to Windsor, but that would not likely be part of the initial stage of the plan.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/pol...l-support-new-passenger-rail-lines-following/
 

WOW some big nuggets here:
  • plan has strong support at the federal cabinet table from Infrastructure Minister François-Philippe Champagne. He is "totally behind VIA's plan"
  • a decision will be made early next year
  • dedicated passenger lines would cost at least $4-billion. The cost would rise to about $6-billion if the line is equipped to run trains using electric power
  • federal studies – which have not been released – included looking at extending the plan through Southwestern Ontario to Windsor, but that would not likely be part of the initial stage of the plan
The fact that Minister of infrastructure FPC is so excited about it makes me more confident about its approval.
 
WOW some big nuggets here:
  • plan has strong support at the federal cabinet table from Infrastructure Minister François-Philippe Champagne. He is "totally behind VIA's plan"
  • a decision will be made early next year
  • dedicated passenger lines would cost at least $4-billion. The cost would rise to about $6-billion if the line is equipped to run trains using electric power
  • federal studies – which have not been released – included looking at extending the plan through Southwestern Ontario to Windsor, but that would not likely be part of the initial stage of the plan
Not mentioned in that is that Siemens is very "cash rich", albeit the term can be misleading. So is GM, but with the merger with Alstom, Siemens is going to be looking to expand operations... and BBD isn't cash rich, quite to the opposite. Perhaps Siemens could approach others to form a consortium to work with the Infrastructure Bank? The details would have to reflect Siemens' Consortium having enough of a share as to allow sole sourcing of Siemens trains, something that VIA would certainly be agreeable with. REM in Montreal did exactly that, even with the Caisse, which owns (30%?) of BBD Transportation, being agreeable to Alstom vehicles, and the Infrastructure Bank went along with that.
Alstom-led consortium to provide complete driverless light metro

Investment highlights
  • The Canada Infrastructure Bank’s $1.28-billion investment will take the form of a 15-year senior secured loan at a rate starting at 1% escalating to 3% over the term of the loan.
  • Given that the Canada Infrastructure Bank’s investment takes the form of a loan, CDPQ Infra’s equity stake in the REM project will be approximately 70% and the Government of Québec’s stake will be approximately 30%.
    • Dollar amounts for both CDPQ Infra’s and the Government of Québec’s investments remain unchanged, staying at respectively $2.95 billion and $1.28 billion.
    • Returns on equity also remain the same, at 3.7% for the Government of Québec and 8-9% for CDPQ Infra.
  • [...]
Canada Infrastructure Bank invests in Réseau express métropolitain

Opportunity for Siemens? I think so...

And there's a further cherry for the picking: The 'Consortium' building a line into Toronto that also satisfies 'Relief Line North' needs. QP should be overjoyed. They can lease pathings on it, and perhaps even lease Siemens or Alstom vehicles owned by the 'Consortium' to keep capital investment to a minimum for the province.

Stone two birds with one kill.
 
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How many trainsets would Via need to procure in order for riders to just show up and board like GO? (instead of having to book months in advance like an airline.)
 
How many trainsets would Via need to procure in order for riders to just show up and board like GO? (instead of having to book months in advance like an airline.)

No idea, but I believe that VIA has options for 16 more trainsets in the Siemens contract.
 
How many trainsets would Via need to procure in order for riders to just show up and board like GO? (instead of having to book months in advance like an airline.)

The number of trainsets is irrelevant, it’s the design of ticketing and reservation systems and the fare structure that determines this.

For instance - in many places in Europe and the UK, tickets aren’t put up for sale until 90 days before the trip. Reservations are a separate process... you can book the tickets in advance, to secure a better fare, but not book the exact train and seat until close to or even the day of.

A wise operator doesn’t sell tickets they can’t honour, and because VIA is so consist-challenged, its practice has been to sell exact seats from the beginning, so it can be definitive about whether a train has sold out. They manage fares so that demand matches available seats - but that may reduce demand below what the market might reasonably bear.

This is part of the reason I have been grinding the axe about the new fleet size. It is clearly in VIA’s interests to not turn away a single passenger - if people form the impression that it’s hard to secure seats, particularly close to a trip date, they will just dismiss train as an option. Apart from the most heavy travel days, potential customers have to be able to just turn up and find a seat waiting. (It helps that in other places, if a train is full, there is likely another train only an hour or less later). VIA needs to have more cars in its fleet so that no train is ever sold out.

It makes no sense to haul empty cars, or to create demand by setting fares too low.... but a slightly larger fleet might let VIA change its price point to boost ridership and still match or exceed current cost recovery.

- Paul
 
The number of trainsets is irrelevant, it’s the design of ticketing and reservation systems and the fare structure that determines this.

For instance - in many places in Europe and the UK, tickets aren’t put up for sale until 90 days before the trip. Reservations are a separate process... you can book the tickets in advance, to secure a better fare, but not book the exact train and seat until close to or even the day of.

A wise operator doesn’t sell tickets they can’t honour, and because VIA is so consist-challenged, its practice has been to sell exact seats from the beginning, so it can be definitive about whether a train has sold out. They manage fares so that demand matches available seats - but that may reduce demand below what the market might reasonably bear.

This is part of the reason I have been grinding the axe about the new fleet size. It is clearly in VIA’s interests to not turn away a single passenger - if people form the impression that it’s hard to secure seats, particularly close to a trip date, they will just dismiss train as an option. Apart from the most heavy travel days, potential customers have to be able to just turn up and find a seat waiting. (It helps that in other places, if a train is full, there is likely another train only an hour or less later). VIA needs to have more cars in its fleet so that no train is ever sold out.

It makes no sense to haul empty cars, or to create demand by setting fares too low.... but a slightly larger fleet might let VIA change its price point to boost ridership and still match or exceed current cost recovery.

- Paul

Has VIA ever been in the situation that they had to turn potential passengers away?
 
The Renaissance cars are evidently badly rotting out and are beyond refurbishment. Also, the LRC cars are built of aluminium frames, which are evidently starting to show cracks. You can't fix that. Unfortunately, both fleets have to be mothballed.
Actually, about a quarter of the LRC cars are in fantastic shape. The 23 or so LRC cars that were done by IRSI are good for another 15 years or so - if needed to be. It's the rest of the cars that are the problem.

The other problematic fleet is the HEP2s. Despite their stainless steel construction, most of the cars are suffering from side sill rot due to poor maintenance prior to VIA's ownership. They've only got another 5 years or so left in them. The Siemens fleet can't come soon enough.

Dan
Toronto, Ont.
Correct me if I'm wrong here. I thought that the LRCs that were rehabilitated have structural issues too. My understanding is that the structural issues were cracks in the aluminum frame. Unlike steel, aluminum is brittle, and cracks, and cracks cannot be fixed. I've only heard this from on-train VIA employees and never in any official documents, so my information could be wrong.

Maybe someone can correct me on this, but why can they not cut out the bad structural parts, and weld in new structural parts?
 
It makes no sense to haul empty cars, or to create demand by setting fares too low.... but a slightly larger fleet might let VIA change its price point to boost ridership and still match or exceed current cost recovery.
Here's where Siemens might be able to get 'investment creative': They study the situation, determine what you state, and then offer to *lease* (with the offer to buy later along with their added order) some extra trainsets to VIA. It will be far easier for Siemens to do this as an order add-on now that they finance than to do it later, at least for a couple of trainsets. Siemens might retain the right to use them elsewhere if the volume use doesn't justify their offer. It looks like Siemens have a 'winner' in more ways than one, and this would be an investment that would pay off for them in terms of *satisfying extra demand* and thus engendering even more.

Needless to say, Siemens could retain the right, when not needed in use, to use the leased out trainsets to 'showcase' them to other potential customers. The locos already have sales inertia, but the complete trainsets, other than Brightline (which may have custom items not normally offered, like locos both ends, seating, etc) might be unique 'salesroom' models that Siemens would be eager to promote.
Edit to Add: Since VIA has only so many slots available, the extra leased trainsets could be used to add-on to an existing fully booked one if a separate slot/pathing isn't available to run a 'special' close to the allotted timetable slot.
 
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Has VIA ever been in the situation that they had to turn potential passengers away?

Do trains sell out? Definitely. Also, like airlines, VIA tailors fares to incent last minute travellers to look for a less heavily loaded train. Some may find that unappealing.

I’m not criticising what VIA does.....demand management is a good thing.... but I’m questioning whether there might be opportunity for a different price/demand/operating cost equation if the fleet were a bit bigger. Telling VIA that it can only have the same seats as in the past, less some factor of added efficiency, is not growing the business. Maybe VIA knows it can do that with 9100 new seats, but we don’t have the benefit of their math, and I’m not taking anything for granted.

- Paul
 
faster travel times means they can move more people with fewer trains, remember. I have a feeling if HFR gets funding they will exercise the 16 optional trains as well.

HFR looks like it won't create any significantly faster trip times to Montreal now, just more consistant. Ottawa is going to be way faster now though, with consistent 3 hour travel times.

Given the fundamental change in the system, I wouldn't be surprised if VIA tweaks its fare structures anyway..

And besides, people love to complain about how expensive VIA is because they always try to book last minute. There is a lot of ways to get good prices on trips, especially if you can watch the sales and travel relatively frequently. On Black Friday my sister picked up a 6 pack of tickets for Oshawa-Kingston (a route she travels often) for $150, or $25 each trip. I believe you could have also bought a 6 pack of Toronto-Ottawa at the time for $200, or $33 each trip.
 
faster travel times means they can move more people with fewer trains, remember.
What faster trains? These trains would run the same speed as the current trains.

And the top HFR speed through Peterborough from Toronto to Montreal is slower than what they used to do on the current alignment.
 
And the top HFR speed through Peterborough from Toronto to Montreal is slower than what they used to do on the current alignment.

Because of freight, not absolute distance. HFR will be electric, albeit that aspect is being promoted as an option. In practice, if there's investors involved, who in their right mind wouldn't fork out the extra to 'do it right' electrically? CN is adamant about "*no catenary*, and CP, save for a branch line not doing double stack, is same.

The coaches, if built to the Austrian/German spec, are capable of:
230 km/h

The Railjet (branded as railjet) is a high-speed train of the Austrian Federal Railways (ÖBB) and Czech Railways (ČD), which was introduced with the timetable change of 2008-2009 and operates at speeds of up to 230 km/h (143 mph).
Railjet - Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Railjet

HFR, until grade separation and electric locos, will run 125 mph/200 kph.

@Urban Sky and others have produced time charts to make the case for for dedicated track via Ottawa to Toronto.
 
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Because of freight, not absolute distance. HFR will be electric, albeit that aspect is being promoted as an option.
If HFR is electric, why would they then take the option for the 16 extra diesel trainsets?

I'd assume that day one operations, that HFR must be diesel. Anyone can already see that the $ amount they've mentioned enough isn't enough for the basic infrastructure - let alone over 800 km of electrification! The recent Great Western Electrification is about CAN$6.7 million per kilometre of track(£4 million). At that price, if the HFR is entirely single-track, electrification would be on the order of $5.3 billion - with no inflation.

What was the VIA HFR proposal? $6 billion total? Was that including rolling stock? Clearly it doesn't can't include anywhere close to $5 billion of electrification!

In reality I'd think that HFR electrification from Toronto to Quebec City would be more than that, with passing track, and lot less inefficiency per km with a lot of single-track segments, so the cost per km of track would be higher than the Great Western, which has a lot of 4-track segments!
 
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