How do people traveling by train cross the border now, customs wise? Does a train stop in Buffalo before/after it crosses the border to inspect everyone’s paperwork? Wouldn’t a GoTrain be held up if someone didn’t have their docs? This seems like it would end like the Rodchester ferry again, a novel idea without doing the homework on implementation.
Indeed, a simple phone call with the desired railroad operator might have revealed such nitpicking details such as that only
federally regulated railroads may operate across provincial or even international borders. As for the border inspections, I don't see how any remotely reliable cross-border commuting service could be operated across Canada's only international border. I remember that at the French-Spanish border, regional (and other national trains) terminate at the first station after the border (Cerbere and Hendaye in France, Port-Bou and Irun in Spain), which used to have the advantage (in pre-Schengen times) that passengers with travel document issues would not delay all other travellers (or the train, which would return empty across the border, while the "difficult cases" are escorted to the border office)...
If the Canadian did shift to CP, they might have to replicate a version of The Superior to serve then-isolated communities on the CN, although I'm admittedly not familiar with the details of VIA's 'remote service mandate'.
I believe it is reasonable to assume that a service would be required to operate which is comparable to what VIA operated between November 1981 and January 1990, when the Super Continental was jointly operated with the Canadian between Sudbury and Winnipeg:
Source:
official VIA Rail timetable (effective 1989-04-30, p.48)
So, what objections could Transport Canada have against swapping the Canadian onto CP and the "remote service" onto CN? Well, from VIA's Annual Reports and Timetables we can approximate the operating costs per train-km, which yields a range between $24 (Sudbury-White River) and $40 (Winnipeg-Churchill). Unfortunately, Winnipeg-Churchill is the most representative service for what Capreol-Winnipeg might require and extrapolating the $39.67 over 1499 km distance gives you an operating cost of $12.4 million, representing an increase of $8.8 million over the current Sudbury-White River service even when only assuming 2 frequencies year-round:
Compiled from:
VIA Rail Annual Reports 2016 and 2017, as well as official VIA Rail timetables.
Note: 2016 chosen as reference year for “Winnipeg-Churchill”, given the partial closure between May 2017 and December 2018.
Despite all the conspiracy theorists, there might have been very rational reasons to choose the CN line over the CP line. That said, I met quite a few travellers on board my (so far unfortunately only) trip on the Canadian, which said that a rerouting to its old route along Lake Superior would certainly compel them to do a second "once-in-a-lifetime" trip on board the Canadian...