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^One of my reservations with the Havelock routing is that double tracking would be so costly that it may never be justified. Having said that, while I once assumed that any HxR line ought to be double track, I have become a fan of not taking that step. VIA's very effective use of its Ottawa-Brockville line is Exhibit A in that.

For HFR, assuming a base service plan of hourly service in each direction, with trains running at roughly 100 mph, trains would need to meet every thirty minutes at spacings of 50 miles apart. In a perfect world, one would only need a passing siding or short length of double track every 50 miles. For the Toronto-Ottawa segment, that implies at most 4-5 "default" passing points to deliver that basic HFR spec. Ottawa- Montreal only needs one or two.

To get flexibility, one would at minimum need to add sidings to adjust meets as timekeeping requires. The traditional steam-age standard was rougly 7 miles between sidings. On the Toronto-Ottawa line, restoring sidings where they once existed may be the cheapest strategy as the terrain will often make another location more costly. That siding spacing ensures there are no long waits for opposing trains, and it's amenable to any upgrades to track that increase speeds in slow zones.

Having built that basic design, there would be very low payback to double track.... except..... each potential meet adds minutes to the schedule...one must assume that VIA is allowing several minutes for up to 5-6 en route meets for its basic HFR spec.

The question then becomes, where can you add double track to save minutes, and how difficult is the terrain at that location? Cost may vary widely depending on location.

It makes sense to take those "default" meeting points and add double track for a few miles at each end, using higher-speed turnouts (as @smallspy has suggested). That would ensure meets do not force either train to slow down, let alone wait. However.....if track speed changes, the double track may not be in the right place, as the optimal meeting points have moved.

Bottom line - the business case for double track has to consider impacts on track speed, and scheduling. The payback may depend a lot on the construction costs at specific locations. One wonders how much scalability there truly is to this route.

- Paul
 
PS - re cost - the Kingston Sub TT was budgeted at $4M per Km but came in at $10M per Km, as per the Auditor General's report. And that was in nice flat farm country.

- Paul
 
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Wow - that"s more than double.

It feels to me that VIA is pushing very hard to make the costs on this seem much lower than they are. That's the same kind of issue they had with the Orange line extension to Laval and the McGill superhospital projects. Unrealistic costing.

The belief sometimes seems to be the only way to get such projects built is to underestimate the costs.

If that's taken hold here, I'd think the funding partners are going to figure it out, and this whole HFR thing will set back any improvements to VIA service back many years.

Oh well, at least they've got the new trains ordered.
 
The belief sometimes seems to be the only way to get such projects built is to underestimate the costs.

Such is the way of government contracting. One would think (hope) that with private money involved the due diligence would be stronger, but they know that, at the end of the day, public money will make it all better. They're not going to stop the project in Kaladar because the well ran dry.
 
PS - re cost - the Kingston Sub TT was budgeted at $4M per Km but came in at $10M per Km, as per the Auditor General's report. And that was in nice flat farm country.

- Paul
Unless you are referring to a different Auditor General report, let me correct this sentence for you:
PS - re cost - the Kingston Sub TT was budgeted at $1.6M per Km but came in at $4.5M per Km, as per the Auditor General's report. And that was in nice flat farm country.
I think I posted this table more than a dozen times in this forum, but here we go again:
upload_2016-5-4_9-15-52-png.74820

Source: Auditor General of Canada (2016)

As far as I recall, these works were conducted by CN which then billed VIA afterwards (while assuming ownership of the new taxpayer-funded tracks) - an arrangement which hardly created transparency or incentives to minimize the cost to the taxpayer. But even if that figure is representative for what building tracks will cost a private investor building infrastructure for HFR, $2.1 billion (divided by $4.5 million) would be enough to build 466 km of tracks, which is equivalent to the entire distance between Smiths Falls (assuming that Ottawa-Smiths Falls is - just as Coteau-De Beaujeu-Ottawa - already very close to HFR standard and therefore requires little, if any, investment) and Toronto (400km - 61km = 339km) plus double-tracking on over one-third ([466-339=]127 km/339 km=37.6%) of the distance...
 
Excuse my ponderings. I am trying to think through here. So at what traffic level is double tracking needed. We're already at 15-18 each direction in the HFR proposal. Could they go to 20? 25? If I'm reading Johannes' post accurately, it could be upto $3 billion to twin track the entire HFR corridor from Toronto to Quebec City. That money could, for example, build HSR worthy corridor between Ottawa-Montreal or solve the tunnel issues in Montreal, etc. I would assume VIA has a roadmap of where they go after launch and when twin tracking becomes mandatory.

I'd be really curious to see what an institutional investor would say about all this.
 
Excuse my ponderings. I am trying to think through here. So at what traffic level is double tracking needed. We're already at 15-18 each direction in the HFR proposal. Could they go to 20? 25? If I'm reading Johannes' post accurately, it could be upto $3 billion to twin track the entire HFR corridor from Toronto to Quebec City. That money could, for example, build HSR worthy corridor between Ottawa-Montreal or solve the tunnel issues in Montreal, etc. I would assume VIA has a roadmap of where they go after launch and when twin tracking becomes mandatory.

I'd be really curious to see what an institutional investor would say about all this.

There's no easy answer to that question because a lot of it is still unknown. If the trains were to run at a similar or same schedule, and on evenly spaced headways, than a lot of the line may be able to be single-tracked with regularly spaced passing sidings to save on cost.

But if the schedule becomes irregular, or loadings are uneven and bog down the trains, than those few passing sidings become a huge hindrance and timekeeping goes down the drain. Hell, even having differently performing equipment can have a huge factor in how it all plays out. And that's where double-track, either as long sections or over the whole of the route, would come in really handy.

Dan
 
Dear Rail nerds, the pro Pickering airport nerds are looking for some input of passenger numbers on the HFR rail routes , Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal. We have come up with an estimate of base numbers, as well as how a Pickering station could pump those numbers, looking for some input on our estimates. Note, we are all volunteers, not corporate jokers, but do have some access to several of the private business cases. None of these have taken the impact of a Pickering station into account.

 
There's no easy answer to that question because a lot of it is still unknown.

Absolutely. But I would assume using the assumptions that VIA made to get to 15 trains in each direction, they'll have a similar assumption on what traffic levels does one track max out at.
 
Unless you are referring to a different Auditor General report, let me correct this sentence for you:

Thanks - teach me to write from memory! I was off by a country mile.



As far as I recall, these works were conducted by CN which then billed VIA afterwards (while assuming ownership of the new taxpayer-funded tracks) - an arrangement which hardly created transparency or incentives to minimize the cost to the taxpayer. But even if that figure is representative for what building tracks will cost a private investor building infrastructure for HFR, $2.1 billion (divided by $4.5 million) would be enough to build 466 km of tracks, which is equivalent to the entire distance between Smiths Falls (assuming that Ottawa-Smiths Falls is - just as Coteau-De Beaujeu-Ottawa - already very close to HFR standard and therefore requires little, if any, investment) and Toronto (400km - 61km = 339km) plus double-tracking on over one-third ([466-339=]127 km/339 km=37.6%) of the distance...

Well, the first track from Toronto to Havelock, and from Montreal to Quebec, will take some amount to bring up to standard. And the relay from Havelock to Glen Tay will cost more per km. Then there’s whatever civil works are needed alongside the CP mainline in Toronto.
The point is not that double track is wrong, it’s that there can’t be much room for much of it in the base HFR budget. Nor does there need to be - but the upgrading costs if it ever is needed will be substantial.

- Paul
 
Absolutely. But I would assume using the assumptions that VIA made to get to 15 trains in each direction, they'll have a similar assumption on what traffic levels does one track max out at.

As @Dan notes, It depends so much on what those added trains are. If GO were to want to run towards Peterboro, double track would be needed right away. It’s hugely difficult to have a fast train overtake a slower train on single track, when there is an opposing train in the mix.... takes four sidings. But with a rigid schedule and identical train types, one might get to half-hourly headways on single track.

I can’t imagine how that hourly service model would require enhancement, however. Adding more cars, even as doubled trainsets, would be far simpler. Maxing out capacity on 2-trainset trains with a demand pricing model in use would be a problem that VIA and its investors would love to have.

- Paul
 
Dear Rail nerds, the pro Pickering airport nerds are looking for some input of passenger numbers on the HFR rail routes , Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal. We have come up with an estimate of base numbers, as well as how a Pickering station could pump those numbers, looking for some input on our estimates. Note, we are all volunteers, not corporate jokers, but do have some access to several of the private business cases. None of these have taken the impact of a Pickering station into account.


If you are looking for a base case scenario, I would start with the following to generate discussion

15 trains a day 6 days a week, 300 seats per train, in each direction Toronto-Ottawa-Montreal-Quebec. 12 trains each way seventh day per week. Partial turnover of those seats in Ottawa and likely greater turnover at Montreal. 365 days of operation. Pick a load factor you feel comfortable with.

Scalability up to a little over double that capacity over time.

I would guesstimate that boardings at Pickering would be no more than 15% of the load arriving/departing Toronto from the east.

All this pure speculation, but as a back of envelope guess, if HFR generated this volume of ridership it would be a roaring success.

- Paul
 
If you are looking for a base case scenario, I would start with the following to generate discussion

15 trains a day 6 days a week, 300 seats per train, in each direction Toronto-Ottawa-Montreal-Quebec. 12 trains each way seventh day per week. Partial turnover of those seats in Ottawa and likely greater turnover at Montreal. 365 days of operation. Pick a load factor you feel comfortable with.

Scalability up to a little over double that capacity over time.

I would guesstimate that boardings at Pickering would be no more than 15% of the load arriving/departing Toronto from the east.

All this pure speculation, but as a back of envelope guess, if HFR generated this volume of ridership it would be a roaring success.

- Paul
Thanks Paul,
One point we are trying to zero in on is the Montreal to Quebec City line, this seems like a segment with low passenger numbers. Does it make sense to instead only focus in on Toronto-Ottawa-Montréal and ignore Quebec City?
 

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