[Voltz]

The current streetcars are capable for running in "reverse". They can be altered and rebuilt to become double-ended, with doors on both sides and an operator cab at both ends, without buying new streetcars if needed instead of retiring them after 30 years.

Please stop bringing this up.

 

[ssiguy2]

Time to move on, please!

Your answer exemplifies the problem, no questions or accountability required just I shrug of the shoulders with the obligatory "what are ya gunna do?".

The fact that the City wants superior transit to the area is NOT the issue. The issue is the obscene amount of money they say it's going to take and the willingness of the City to spend this amount of money on 4 km of streetcar knowing this means a plethora of other needed transit projects will be, at best, put on hold but probably indefinitely cancelled. How can the City say they have a billion for this line and yet somehow can't even afford to upgrade it's 19th century switching system? As I stated earlier, all infrastructure projects should be based upon a cost-benefit analysis and under no situation does this line pass that test.

So again I will ask this question to all of you "what are ya gunna do" crowd out there.......if it takes a $1 billion {for some unknown reason} for the Union rework and $200 million for a Cherry Street tunnel, how, in God's name, is it going to take another $1.8 billion for the remaining 3km ? This is not a rhetorical question, I really would like an answer. If I get a reasonable answer, I promise I'll shut up.

 

[DSCToronto]

Your answer exemplifies the problem, no questions or accountability required just I shrug of the shoulders with the obligatory "what are ya gunna do?".

The fact that the City wants superior transit to the area is NOT the issue. The issue is the obscene amount of money they say it's going to take and the willingness of the City to spend this amount of money on 4 km of streetcar knowing this means a plethora of other needed transit projects will be, at best, put on hold but probably indefinitely cancelled. How can the City say they have a billion for this line and yet somehow can't even afford to upgrade it's 19th century switching system? As I stated earlier, all infrastructure projects should be based upon a cost-benefit analysis and under no situation does this line pass that test.

So again I will ask this question to all of you "what are ya gunna do" crowd out there.......if it takes a $1 billion {for some unknown reason} for the Union rework and $200 million for a Cherry Street tunnel, how, in God's name, is it going to take another $1.8 billion for the remaining 3km ? This is not a rhetorical question, I really would like an answer. If I get a reasonable answer, I promise I'll shut up.

I for one have given up listening. “Ignore “ is a useful UT feature.

 

[drum118]

Your answer exemplifies the problem, no questions or accountability required just I shrug of the shoulders with the obligatory "what are ya gunna do?".

The fact that the City wants superior transit to the area is NOT the issue. The issue is the obscene amount of money they say it's going to take and the willingness of the City to spend this amount of money on 4 km of streetcar knowing this means a plethora of other needed transit projects will be, at best, put on hold but probably indefinitely cancelled. How can the City say they have a billion for this line and yet somehow can't even afford to upgrade it's 19th century switching system? As I stated earlier, all infrastructure projects should be based upon a cost-benefit analysis and under no situation does this line pass that test.

So again I will ask this question to all of you "what are ya gunna do" crowd out there.......if it takes a $1 billion {for some unknown reason} for the Union rework and $200 million for a Cherry Street tunnel, how, in God's name, is it going to take another $1.8 billion for the remaining 3km ? This is not a rhetorical question, I really would like an answer. If I get a reasonable answer, I promise I'll shut up.

I agree the one billion for the loop is over kill considering it was out data when I first saw the plans and it will never handle the ridership once lines are built as well development. As for one who been in the hole during the construction of the west concourse, a lot of surprises were found causing delay, redesign and extra cost to deal with those surprises, Until the loop is open to see what behind those hidden walls, you are guessing as what may go wrong and providing funds to cover if it is needed.

What was vision for Cherry St Tunnel is a lot different today than it was 10-15 years ago that will raise the cost as well along with inflation.

The 1.8 billion is over kill for the line as well if you add the cost to rebuild QQ along with the extension that was part of WT cost in the first place. It seems WT needs more funds to cover their overrun cost on a number of projects to build QQE and the island

End of the day, we have no say and will never have a say how the city and WT is doing things wrong at great cost for everything.

 

[TwoWheelPoli]

Matt Elliott's latest Toronto Star column takes a dig at Metrolinx's management of transit projects and calls the Waterfront East LRT an opportunity for the City of Toronto (and the TTC) to show Metrolinx how's it's done.

Matt Elliott: Why the Waterfront East LRT is a chance for Toronto to show Metrolinx the better way to build a transit project

City hall, the TTC and Waterfront Toronto need to make sure they mitigate some of the factors that have made Canada’s recent infrastructure projects some of the most expensive in the world.

www.thestar.com

 

[innsertnamehere]

Matt Elliott's latest Toronto Star column takes a dig at Metrolinx's management of transit projects and calls the Waterfront East LRT an opportunity for the City of Toronto (and the TTC) to show Metrolinx how's it's done.

Matt Elliott: Why the Waterfront East LRT is a chance for Toronto to show Metrolinx the better way to build a transit project

City hall, the TTC and Waterfront Toronto need to make sure they mitigate some of the factors that have made Canada’s recent infrastructure projects some of the most expensive in the world.

www.thestar.com

Oh, you mean the same City that is still trying to put pavers on John Street 17 years after it started? Or the one that has been building a simple valley trail in the Don Valley for 13 years? Or the one that perpetually lets it's best, highest traffic parks look like trampled gravel pits?

Somehow I'm doubtful..

 

[Northern Light]

Matt Elliott's latest Toronto Star column takes a dig at Metrolinx's management of transit projects and calls the Waterfront East LRT an opportunity for the City of Toronto (and the TTC) to show Metrolinx how's it's done.

Matt Elliott: Why the Waterfront East LRT is a chance for Toronto to show Metrolinx the better way to build a transit project

City hall, the TTC and Waterfront Toronto need to make sure they mitigate some of the factors that have made Canada’s recent infrastructure projects some of the most expensive in the world.

www.thestar.com

After appropriately dunking on Mx, this is Matt's key:

To which I offer:

100% design, 100% design, 100% design. We do not tender incomplete ideas, we will not have project management staff who can be bamboozed with what problems need to be solved, how to solve them or what it costs.
We should complete 100% design with a Class 1 estimate before this goes to tender.

Every finishing element should be decided on. Soil tests and utility locates for the underground section (tunnel to Union) should be comprehensive and unassailable. .

The internal mandate should be to deliver the project 1 year early and 10% under budget, so that if any minor hiccups occur, they are fully absorbable into the project schedule and budget.

The mantra "Under promise and Over deliver' should be brow beaten into everyone on the project team. Followed by the idea of 'Surprise and Delight on opening" When the goal is perfection, excellence becomes increasingly achievable.

 

[Northern Light]

I'm going to add one more thing to the above, as a carrot to any winning construction trades or subs; If you complete work on this project, on schedule, on budget, with no substantive deficiencies, you automatically pre-qualify for all comparable transit projects led by the City or WT for 5 years after completion. (not a work guarantee, but they can avoid the pre-qualify phase).

 

[duty free]

Yes, once it is built it will become the 507 or whatever number (or letter) designation it gets.

You mean Line 7? Too soon?

 

[NoahB]

After appropriately dunking on Mx, this is Matt's key:

View attachment 727219

To which I offer:

100% design, 100% design, 100% design. We do not tender incomplete ideas, we will not have project management staff who can be bamboozed with what problems need to be solved, how to solve them or what it costs.
We should complete 100% design with a Class 1 estimate before this goes to tender.

Every finishing element should be decided on. Soil tests and utility locates for the underground section (tunnel to Union) should be comprehensive and unassailable. .

The internal mandate should be to deliver the project 1 year early and 10% under budget, so that if any minor hiccups occur, they are fully absorbable into the project schedule and budget.

The mantra "Under promise and Over deliver' should be brow beaten into everyone on the project team. Followed by the idea of 'Surprise and Delight on opening" When the goal is perfection, excellence becomes increasingly achievable.

Today, I just remembered that the much more complex Broadview extension in Vancouver is about the same length and also has a budget of 3 billion.
Losing faith is the least of our worries when we start building streetcar extensions at a higher cost than Skytrain extensions.
I know the inclusion of the Union Station loop and Queens Quay rebuild makes it more than just a typical streetcar extension. But still... Vancouver is building 7 subway stations, including a complex interchange, for the same money.

 

[Northern Light]

Today, I just remembered that the much more complex Broadview extension in Vancouver is about the same length and also has a budget of 3 billion.
Losing faith is the least of our worries when we start building streetcar extensions at a higher cost than Skytrain extensions.
I know the inclusion of the Union Station loop and Queens Quay rebuild makes it more than just a typical streetcar extension. But still... Vancouver is building 7 subway stations, including a complex interchange, for the same money.

Just to be fair here...in that comparison........

The original tender for the Broadway extension was signed six years ago in 2020.

According to Stats. Can. the Construction Inflation index would have lifted the numbers by about 90% in that period.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1810028901&pickMembers%5B0%5D=2.1&pickMembers%5B1%5D=3.1&cubeTimeFrame.startMonth=01&cubeTimeFrame.startYear=2020&cubeTimeFrame.endMonth=10&cubeTimeFrame.endYear=2025&referencePeriods=20200101%2C20251001

Worth noting then, as the Broadway project is winding down, that the original tender in 2020 was for 1.7B and change.....and the current cost is estimated at over 2.9B . So that project is ~70% over budget.

When calculating even a similar project, you're going to calculate an estimate based on construction inflation forward costs over the life of the project. So you'd use a weighted average over the next 6 years or so. I don't expect Construction Inflation to run anywhere near as hot in the next 6 years as it did the last; but given uncertain global events and spiking energy prices you wouldn't want to be too conservative either.

The tunnel work here is also uniquely complex in that it involves lowering the grade of the existing tunnel and track. On the other hand, I believe this line can zero new fleet costs as the TTC has sufficient spare streetcar fleet to operate the line which is a savings.

At 60% design, which is where we are today, we should have a Class 2 construction estimate. The accuracy range is -10% to +20%. If they've done their planning properly, the 3B should include +20% over the true estimate. Which would mean they are hoping for 2.5B.

None of that is a free pass here, for a fully priced design, just an explanation to put it in context so we understand where it comes from and how to evaluate it.

 

[nfitz]

Worth noting then, as the Broadway project is winding down, that the original tender in 2020 was for 1.7B and change.....and the current cost is estimated at over 2.9B . So that project is ~70% over budget.

When calculating even a similar project, you're going to calculate an estimate based on construction inflation forward costs over the life of the project. So you'd use a weighted average over the next 6 years or so. I don't expect Construction Inflation to run anywhere near as hot in the next 6 years as it did the last; but given uncertain global events and spiking energy prices you wouldn't want to be too conservative either.

The tunnel work here is also uniquely complex in that it involves lowering the grade of the existing tunnel and track. On the other hand, I believe this line can zero new fleet costs as the TTC has sufficient spare streetcar fleet to operate the line which is a savings.

At 60% design, which is where we are today, we should have a Class 2 construction estimate. The accuracy range is -10% to +20%. If they've done their planning properly, the 3B should include +20% over the true estimate. Which would mean they are hoping for 2.5B.

None of that is a free pass here, for a fully priced design, just an explanation to put it in context so we understand where it comes from and how to evaluate it.

100%

I've been pointing to the Construction Price Index here for years, when people use the very low Consumer Price Index. Typically I've used 2-3% for a consumer index escalator and 5% for a construction estimate - though even the latter is too low in recent yaers.

 

[urbanclient]

Just to be fair here...in that comparison........

The original tender for the Broadway extension was signed six years ago in 2020.

According to Stats. Can. the Construction Inflation index would have lifted the numbers by about 90% in that period.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1810028901&pickMembers%5B0%5D=2.1&pickMembers%5B1%5D=3.1&cubeTimeFrame.startMonth=01&cubeTimeFrame.startYear=2020&cubeTimeFrame.endMonth=10&cubeTimeFrame.endYear=2025&referencePeriods=20200101%2C20251001

Worth noting then, as the Broadway project is winding down, that the original tender in 2020 was for 1.7B and change.....and the current cost is estimated at over 2.9B . So that project is ~70% over budget.

When calculating even a similar project, you're going to calculate an estimate based on construction inflation forward costs over the life of the project. So you'd use a weighted average over the next 6 years or so. I don't expect Construction Inflation to run anywhere near as hot in the next 6 years as it did the last; but given uncertain global events and spiking energy prices you wouldn't want to be too conservative either.

The tunnel work here is also uniquely complex in that it involves lowering the grade of the existing tunnel and track. On the other hand, I believe this line can zero new fleet costs as the TTC has sufficient spare streetcar fleet to operate the line which is a savings.

At 60% design, which is where we are today, we should have a Class 2 construction estimate. The accuracy range is -10% to +20%. If they've done their planning properly, the 3B should include +20% over the true estimate. Which would mean they are hoping for 2.5B.

None of that is a free pass here, for a fully priced design, just an explanation to put it in context so we understand where it comes from and how to evaluate it.

All the more reason to blame those involved for not getting the ball rolling sooner. Hindsight 20/20.