Karen Stintz fully realizes her campaign to become Toronto’s next mayor isn’t unfolding anywhere close to how she had hoped.
Since she first announced she would enter the race, Stintz has fallen — not risen — in opinion polls, her fundraising has proved harder than expected, several key campaign organizers have stepped aside and media coverage has declined.
Indeed, Stintz’s campaign — once so full of hope and promise — now seems hopelessly mired in the “also-ran†category, with some political commentators predicting she might soon quit the race.
Recent polls list the former TTC head’s support at just 4 to 6 per cent, down from 16 per cent in polls conducted late last year and far behind Olivia Chow, John Tory and incumbent mayor Rob Ford, the top three candidates.
It’s a harsh reality for the hard-working, energetic city councillor who has lots of experience, many good ideas and was once considered the darling of the right on city council.
Despite her stalled campaign, Stintz isn’t quitting — at least not yet.
In fact, Stintz is currently planning a major relaunch of her campaign after Labour Day, highlighted by the unveiling of her economic platform in a speech to key civic leaders, an aggressive social media program and a renewed push to better co-ordinate the efforts of her volunteers.
Her goal is to convince voters to at least give her a second look before the Oct. 27 election.
To prepare for the relaunch, Stintz is focusing her days this summer on raising money to fund her campaign, which so far is debt free, on getting her newly opened headquarters on Eglinton Avenue in shape, on recruiting more volunteers and on establishing business-style infrastructure needed for a serious mayoral bid.
Stintz is making the effort because she’s convinced the mayoral campaign is still very fluid and that there’s time for her to close the gap between herself and the three front-runners.
Back in the spring of 2013, Stintz made the decision to run. She recruited a veteran conservative campaign organizer, received help from a top speech coach, got advice from a team of leading policy advisers and launched an aggressive campaign to meet with senior community leaders.
Her campaign mantra was simple: keep city finances in check, keep taxes low and respect voters and the image of the city.
No one doubted her conservative credentials and she had gained a lot of friends because she was the first right-leaning councillor to stand up to Rob Ford, earning the now-disgraced mayor’s eternal hatred.
But Stintz’s candidacy suffered a near-fatal blow when John Tory entered the race. Tory is a moderate conservative like Stintz, but has bigger name recognition, more corporate connections and a greater ability to raise campaign funds.
Instantly, money dried up for Stintz, a critical element in an election where it will take some $1.4 million to run a serious campaign. At the same time, several veteran organizers left, forcing Stintz to scramble to find experienced staff to run the campaign’s day-to-day operations.
To this day, Tory remains Stintz’s biggest obstacle. When asked to outline the biggest difference between her and Tory, she replies bluntly: “I have a 10-year track record of success on council.â€
Stintz’s campaign also suffered when she fared poorly at a major speech before a packed crowd at the Toronto Region Board of Trade. She desperately needed to win over the audience, many of whom seemed ready to support her. But she was clearly nervous and delivered the speech in a manner that left the high-powered crowd with the impression she was trying too hard, was unprepared and not ready for prime time.
Without the support of big business and the media buzz surrounding it, Stintz started to disappear from the campaign discourse, losing out to Chow, Ford and Tory.
Does her bid deserve a second look?
Although critics suggest she is too brittle and too easy to anger, Stintz comes across in small meetings as charming, engaged and in command of the issues.
She has detailed ideas on easing congestion; for a downtown subway relief line from Queen to Pape Avenue, which she’d fund by selling off part of Toronto Hydro; for better integration of GO and the TTC; for a transportation czar and for ensuring neighbourhood playing fields aren’t sold off.
Also she deserves respect for refusing to be bullied by Ford and his brother Doug after they lashed out at her as a traitor for Ford’s subway plans despite having been appointed earlier by the mayor to head the TTC.
Ultimately, though, Stintz may be too far back at this stage in the campaign to mount a serious challenge to the front-runners. But with a lot of luck and a successful relaunch, Stintz might just get that second chance to get voters to listen to why she should be mayor.
