[King of Kensington]

That is an excellent point. I wonder how Duverger's Law can be interpreted in this case should the NDP win.

That being said, Duverger's Law has always made an exception and accommodation of the law for Canada due to party regionalism.

Duverger also says that "The simple-majority system...makes possible the creation of local parties or the retreat of national parties to local positions."

He gives the example of British Liberals (at least until the British election a month ago!), with a base in the "Celtic fringe." Right now the Liberals are starting to look like the party of our "Celtic fringe" (Atlantic Canada).

 

[Videodrome]

http://www.ipolitics.ca/2015/06/05/...pproval-numbers-hitting-near-historical-lows/

Harper's approval rating is pretty bad as expected.

https://mindbendingpolitics.wordpre...bill-c51-presumed-politically-dead-in-senate/

Thanks to the Senate scandal, C-51 could be rejected.

 

[King of Kensington]

I don't think it's the "Trudeau's not ready" ads that are hurting him. I really think it's his stance on c-51. So many liberals I know, myself included, who traditionally vote for the Liberal party are flocking to the NDP because of it.

Yeah, C-51 was a fatal mistake on the part of the Liberals. Here's a lame defense of that policy:

http://www.liberal.ca/liberals-and-bill-c-51-up-front-with-canadians/

 

[urbandreamer]

From what I hear, the real reason the Liberals could lose is thanks to those Wynne Liberals.

 

[christiesplits]

Yeah, C-51 was a fatal mistake on the part of the Liberals. Here's a lame defense of that policy:

http://www.liberal.ca/liberals-and-bill-c-51-up-front-with-canadians/

It's been mind-numbing watching an otherwise sharp and intelligent Adam Vaughan twist himself into a partisan pretzel trying to defend C-51.

 

[King of Kensington]

Sending Vaughan to Ottawa was a failed experiment.

 

[FNTS]

Things are about to get interesting

 

[CodeMonkey]

WARNING: Rant Ahead

Am I the only one here that is getting tired when mentioning you'll be voting NDP in the next federal election that people always bring up the Ontario NDP and the "horrors" of those years? Not realizing its been twenty years, three premiers and Bob Rae switching political stripes later that this grudge has been legal drinking age in this province for over a year now and will be the legal drinking age in the USA next year. I just wish people would get over it, but I'm not holding my breath that people in this province will change.

 

[WislaHD]

I wasn't alive at the time but I am still unsure what those horrors truly were. Seems like Bob Rae had to chose between two bad options and chose the lesser one, then had to deal with a recession.

The horrors of Mike Harris is what I grew up with. My classrooms were 35 students in size, my city was amalgamated against its will, infrastructure was downloaded burdening my city further, and the subway that should've opened up on my street as a kid is not opening until after I complete my masters degree. Excuse me while I don't vote Conservative.

 

[Videodrome]

I was a student during the Bob Rae years and following two terms of Mike Harris. The latter Premier gets no love from me...

So long as my MP loses, I am fine with it, whether it be NDP or Liberal.

 

[CodeMonkey]

I also grew up under the Mike Harris era, and I've voted Liberal in the past as a result, but the federal NDP are growing on me and I'm ready to switch my vote. Usually when I or when I see someone make such announcement, it's usually followed by being told the "horrors" of Rae Days that happen twenty years ago, and I usually shrug it off. But with it event that the Liberals have lost Quebec they've become the split vote that could get Harper get re-elected again, and it seems more urgent than ever to start shaming people who still hold this stupid grudge to finally get over it, judge the party for what they stand for today, not what happen a lifetime ago now.

 

[adma]

Am I the only one here that is getting tired when mentioning you'll be voting NDP in the next federal election that people always bring up the Ontario NDP and the "horrors" of those years? Not realizing its been twenty years, three premiers and Bob Rae switching political stripes later that this grudge has been legal drinking age in this province for over a year now and will be the legal drinking age in the USA next year. I just wish people would get over it, but I'm not holding my breath that people in this province will change.

Actually. I think the "horrors" perception had less to do with policy than with a party that never had experience in provincial power, wasn't really *expecting* to be elected, and didn't know how to coordinate itself into properly handling the gift horse it was given. Thus thanks in large part to Rae regime, the NDP became indelibly associated with not-ready-for-prime-time ineptitude in power--and of course, it's a cloud that looms over the the Layton/Mulcair Quebec caucus, or Rachel Notley's Alberta team. (Though to me, the more direct parallel is in how Mario Dumont's ADQ rose from 4 seats to 41 in the 2007 Quebec election--and back to 7 in 2008.)

 

[Tuscani01]

Latest Forum poll has the Liberals back at 32%, PC's at 31% and NDP back down to 28%. Also mentions that the PC's are within majority government territory due to the efficiency of their votes and the split on the left.

 

[Videodrome]

Polls and polls! What are polls? (Star Trek reference)

Seriously though, how can the Liberals go from a distant third to being in the lead?

 

[Tuscani01]

Polls and polls! What are polls? (Star Trek reference)

Seriously though, how can the Liberals go from a distant third to being in the lead?

The margin is so small that even a small change in voter intentions can be the difference between first and last place. Statistically, they're all tied in terms of the share of the vote.