[BurlOak]

Because the perception, rightfully or not that a vote for the NDP weakens the votes against the PCs in our FPTP system. You can be guaranteed that the Liberals will play to that perception, campaigning that if you want to stop DoFo you must vote Liberal, even if that means holding your nose.

Your statement assumes those on the left who oppose Ford are OK with the corruption.
If you want to stop Ford and you have an ounce of moral fiber, you must vote NDP.

 

[King of Kensington]

Riding results map here:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-pc-leadership-results-1.4571699

Toronto pretty much went as expected, with Ford dominating working class outer TO and Elliott winning the core and "elite" ridings like St. Paul's and DVW.

In the 905, Peel defied conventional wisdom and was pretty evenly split. Ford dominated York Region (McMansion/nouveau riche demographic). Elliott won Durham (home turf) and Halton (more "establishment").

Ford won in "rust belt" ridings and in the North as well.

 

[PinkLucy]

Policymaking is the reward you get for politicking well.[/QUOTE]

To get to that stage you have to win an election. Self-evident no? Why play pointless gotcha games?

Policymaking is the reward you get for politicking well.

Yes, I was being somewhat snide and sarcastic. However, I think Doug is in it to win for winning's sake. I don't think he gives a hoot about actually governing, or having a vision, or making the province better, whereas the majority of politicians do. His comments about being a councillor showed how little he enjoyed the job, so one wonders why he wants to stay in politics other than that he enjoys being the centre of attention, and he enjoys saying negative things about his opponents. I think he is happier complaining about everyone else than he is actually doing something.

 

[PinkLucy]

Christine would like you to donate $7. Doug only asked for $1.

The pace of this Ontario PC leadership race has been rapid.

There have been a number of unexpected turns along the way.

That's why our team took the last twenty-four hours to review the results of an election that was incredibly close.

After completing my review, I am confident in the results.

I extend my congratulations to Doug Ford on a hard-fought campaign.

I have been a proud Progressive Conservative for over 25 years and my commitment remains steadfast.

As I have been saying every day during this campaign, Ontario needs us.

That is why I entered this race.

Ontario needs a Progressive Conservative government to finally defeat Kathleen Wynne.

I look forward to running as a candidate on the team that will form that government on June 7th.

My deepest thanks to the thousands of supporters and incredible volunteers across Ontario.

United, we WILL win.

Donate $7 to help beat the Liberals on June 7th!

Sincerely,

Christine Elliott

 

[Hopkins123]

^ Beat me to it. Elliot has conceded to Ford.

Hillary vs. Trump 2.0 - Ontario Edition begins now!

 

[King of Kensington]

A major difference between the US is the two-party system and direct election of the executive. So in a two-way race "HRC" would prevail over "Trump" in Ontario (just as she did in Minnesota, Illinois, New York, California etc.). But in our multi-party parliamentary system, a "Trump" only needs 40% of the vote or so for a majority.

 

[BurlOak]

Yes, I was being somewhat snide and sarcastic. However, I think Doug is in it to win for winning's sake. I don't think he gives a hoot about actually governing, or having a vision, or making the province better, whereas the majority of politicians do. His comments about being a councillor showed how little he enjoyed the job, so one wonders why he wants to stay in politics other than that he enjoys being the centre of attention, and he enjoys saying negative things about his opponents. I think he is happier complaining about everyone else than he is actually doing something.

It appears that Ford's are not micro-managers, and just speak in broad strokes. In transit, Rob Ford just wanted transit out of the way of cars (and thus vice versa), but left it to others to work out the details - in which Stintz and Metrolinx let him down. He said he wanted a 4 year labour contract that cut benefits, and left it to Holiday to work out the details - in which he did a great job.
Doug will likely set the tone and leave things to the ministers to implement.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Ford dominated York Region (McMansion/nouveau riche demographic).

Your disdain for this group is evident. If Liberals are to stand a chance they need to park their sarcasm and contempt for those unlike like. Otherwise they’ll face their basket of deplorables moment.

 

[christiesplits]

I think the U.S. experience last November shows that strong economic indicators can't win an election if people still feel like they're struggling. For instance, GDP is irrelevant if people are concerned that their job could be shipped overseas or their company downsized by a private equity firm. The unemployment rate is irrelevant if people are working in short-term, precarious jobs, living check-to-check.

I think there is considerable economic anxiety that makes it difficult to be an incumbent, particularly at a provincial/state or federal level. Add in Liberal Party fatigue (four terms - longer than the Rae years and Common Sense Revolution combined), an endless list of scandals, high energy costs, and a PC party that finally seems to have its act together, and I think Wynne is in deep trouble.

 

[SunriseChampion]

But in our multi-party parliamentary system, a "Trump" only needs 40% of the vote or so for a majority.

Yes, but that should read: In our FPTP electoral joke (sorry, I meant system), a "Trump" only needs 40% of the vote or so for a "majority".

 

[kEiThZ]

In my life I see people who live in big houses, who have multiple vehicles in the driveway, who are regularly flying off on vacation, who cheer the unsustainable rise in real estate and equity prices, really upset about that Kathleen Wynne. They don't appear to be living hard lives. If anything they'd be boastful about the great lives they do lead. I'd grant you that the Liberals have been in power too long and haven't been the best managers. But that doesn't seem to be the real issue. Seems to have more to do with giving the least in society a raise, or updating the sex ed curriculum after decades, or windmills, or something like that.

I am going to guess you either don't live in immigrant heavy suburbs like Scarborough or Etobicoke, or you don't live in rural Ontario. And these are the places that will vote PC/Ford.

I think the U.S. experience last November shows that strong economic indicators can't win an election if people still feel like they're struggling. For instance, GDP is irrelevant if people are concerned that their job could be shipped overseas or their company downsized by a private equity firm. The unemployment rate is irrelevant if people are working in short-term, precarious jobs, living check-to-check.

I think there is considerable economic anxiety that makes it difficult to be an incumbent, particularly at a provincial/state or federal level. Add in Liberal Party fatigue (four terms - longer than the Rae years and Common Sense Revolution combined), an endless list of scandals, high energy costs, and a PC party that finally seems to have its act together, and I think Wynne is in deep trouble.

People have still learned nothing from the US. General stats mean nothing. Most of the gains from the recovery went to the top. Real incomes have been basically stagnant for a while.

We've had it slightly better in Ontario. But the housing bubble has basically destroyed purchasing power from any income gains. When you couple this with decimation of manufacturing in Ontario, there's a rust-belt dynamic forming in Ontario.

 

[jje1000]

Riding results map here:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-pc-leadership-results-1.4571699

Toronto pretty much went as expected, with Ford dominating working class outer TO and Elliott winning the core and "elite" ridings like St. Paul's and DVW.

In the 905, Peel defied conventional wisdom and was pretty evenly split. Ford dominated York Region (McMansion/nouveau riche demographic). Elliott won Durham (home turf) and Halton (more "establishment").

Ford won in "rust belt" ridings and in the North as well.

I think the U.S. experience last November shows that strong economic indicators can't win an election if people still feel like they're struggling. For instance, GDP is irrelevant if people are concerned that their job could be shipped overseas or their company downsized by a private equity firm. The unemployment rate is irrelevant if people are working in short-term, precarious jobs, living check-to-check.

I think there is considerable economic anxiety that makes it difficult to be an incumbent, particularly at a provincial/state or federal level. Add in Liberal Party fatigue (four terms - longer than the Rae years and Common Sense Revolution combined), an endless list of scandals, high energy costs, and a PC party that finally seems to have its act together, and I think Wynne is in deep trouble.

I think this article dovetails nicely into your observations. At this point we're basically seeing a populist uprising in slow motion, like in the US where the Rust Belt went for Trump. I think there are many people in those areas who are done with the Liberal's platitudes, look to the US and its economy (irregardless of whose economy it really is) and would like a Trump-equivalent here who will demolish the status quo.

Like what most of you are saying, the Liberals must be very careful to not duplicate Hiliary's "deplorables" moment and work towards both attacking Ford on economic grounds, while also equivocating an NDP as a vote for Ford. Likewise, they need to also do double work in the 905, to ensure the suburban and immigrant population doesn't go for the social conservatism (sex-ed) plank that Ford will surely bring out. And they need to make sure their Get-out-the-vote system is on point.

Reevely: Toronto's economy roars while the rest of Ontario hollows out

Ontario’s economy is ticking over nicely, the province’s financial accountability office says, but most of the benefits are going to Toronto.

Last year, Greater Toronto added 69,700 jobs and central Ontario (which includes the tech powerhouse of Waterloo) added 57,200, according to the independent budget watchdog at Queen’s Park. But everywhere else — eastern, northern and southwestern Ontario, combined — added just 1,600 jobs.

This is a bad, bad, bad bit of news in a report released Wednesday that’s overall pretty upbeat. “Ontario Records Strong Labour Market Performance in 2017” is the headline; the province saw the most jobs created in any year since 2003 and its lowest unemployment rate (6 per cent) since 2000.

Long-term unemployment is down. The number of people with precarious jobs is stable. The wage gap between men and women is, too — not improving, but not getting worse. Fewer young people are working, continuing a 25-year trend, but more of them are in school.

Zoom in, though, and it’s clear that you’d much rather be looking for work in Toronto than anywhere else.

Between 2007 and 2017, southwestern Ontario lost 21,900 jobs, according to Statistics Canada data the FAO crunched. Northern Ontario lost 20,800.

Ten years of population growth, trade, economic-development work by all governments, and now fewer people are employed in those big swaths of the province.

Eastern Ontario has gained 30,500 jobs in 10 years, though employment in this end of the province actually peaked in 2012 and has been stagnant since.

Greater Toronto, meanwhile, has added jobs every year since the recession, usually tens of thousands of them, for a total of 465,500 over 10 years. Central Ontario has added 129,300. That’s a big crescent of the farthest reaches of the GO transit network, from Niagara to Kitchener to Barrie to the Kawarthas. Greater Greater Toronto, really.

http://ottawacitizen.com/news/local...y-roars-while-the-rest-of-ontario-hollows-out

 

[Jasmine18]

What do people think will happen in Toronto proper?

I think it is certain he would win his seat in Etobicoke at Least, and maybe a few in Scarborough. I am not sure why people think these voters won't turn up for Ford running for the top job.

 

[King of Kensington]

I think some ridings will flip to Ford, but I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that the PCs will win every riding Ford won municipally where there are no party labels and hence it's easier to cross "party" lines.

Scarborough-Agincourt for instance is likely to flip PC. The federal Tories under the unknown Andrew Scheer were able to get 40% in a by-election there and Doug Ford is popular in the Chinese community.

But I see Scarborough-Guildwood likely staying Liberal. Mitzie Hunter is pretty popular.

 

[christiesplits]

At this point, does the Liberal Etobicoke North incumbent even run? I'd rather spend my June at the cottage than losing horrendously.