narduch
Senior Member
He's held the riding since 2003. Ironically, he was born in Chicago!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shafiq_Qaadri
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- Thread starter MetroMan
- Start date
He's held the riding since 2003. Ironically, he was born in Chicago!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shafiq_Qaadri
torontologist
Active Member
LOL.... "contempt"?! A majority of their caucus and ministers are from the 905. They define their policy. The "contempt" is imaginary.
kEiThZ
Superstar
They don't have to flip a lot of seats for the Liberals to be in trouble. If the PCs flip even half the seats where Ford dominated in the mayoral election, the Liberals will be in trouble.
The Liberals will have to work hard to steal some NDP seats up north, while defending as much of the 905 as they can. A tall order.
kEiThZ
Superstar
Do you know many people in Scarborough and Etobicoke? You dismiss their concerns at your peril.
torontologist
Active Member
Well, I'm not a politician, thank god, so I don't have to pander to anyone's concerns. I'm dismayed that political discourse in this province (and really the world at large) has deteriorated to the point where we must address imaginary slights and contempt that are projected by the insecure onto people that aren't like them. Nobody is out to get the 905 or rural Ontario. In fact, their representatives are the ones in control.
My comment was directed at the 905, not the inner suburbs, but I'll bite. Yes, I know many people in Scarborough. Not so many in Etobicoke. The ones I do know are young people, mostly people of colour, who have the same concerns that I do: finding a job and finding an affordable apartment. None of them will be voting PC. Doug Ford does not represent everybody in the inner suburbs, not by a longshot.
Videodrome
Senior Member
So basically, the SoCons got played again.
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I look forward to hearing him speak French.
animatronic
Senior Member
My god - and nobody saw this coming!
Admiral Beez
Superstar
But he only need to appeal to those that can vote (citizens, adults) and those that will vote (the motivated, available).
With 57% of Scarberians being foreign born, it's strong odds that many are not citizens, and thus can be ignored. I immigrated to Canada in the 1970s and I'm the only citizen in my whole family, the rest never bothered, and thus never votes. Then there's a availability to vote. If you're working long hours, and not close to your polling station can you make it to vote?
The PCs only have to appeal to those in the inner suburbs who will vote.
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christiesplits
Senior Member
This poll-by-poll map of the 2014 mayoral election shows you just so how screwed the Liberals are in Toronto. Since Ford's election, the Liberals can add at least 10 new ridings to the 'likely lose' category, and that doesn't include the potential NDP pick ups in Beaches-East York or Davenport.
https://globalnews.ca/news/1647117/poll-level-maps-show-torontos-election-in-extreme-detail/
https://globalnews.ca/news/1647117/poll-level-maps-show-torontos-election-in-extreme-detail/
AlvinofDiaspar
Moderator
Don't be so sure - considering he was quick to promise action on the Sex Ed file. Abortion is a totally different story that even he won't want to touch with a 10 foot pole, and this ain't the US.
AoD
kEiThZ
Superstar
Just to be clear. This is a sentiment I share. But I do think it's important to understand where Ford voters are coming from. And I think we are not well served on that front when their concerns are so readily dismissed.
For example, you think Ford's base is in the 905. I don't think that's really true at all. And I find it to be bizarre assertion to begin with, given how long he's been in Toronto politics.
The results of the last mayoral election definitely say that Ford resonates with suburban voters more than you think:
While I think what you say is true for younger voters, I am not certain this holds for the majority of suburban voters. And I do think there's a perception in those immigrant heavy inner suburbs that the Liberals aren't delivering for them. I saw a lot of it first hand, during the campaigning in Malvern for the by-election in 2016. That riding has been straight Liberal since 1985 provincially, and with the exception of one NDP term, straight Liberal federally since 1988. Went PC in 2016. And the margin was not small. Watching that first hand is what got me to realize that Ford is far, far more popular than people realize.
UrbanToronto's user base is very downtown centric, left leaning and I am willing to bet less racially diverse than the city at large, and especially those inner suburbs. To pretend that the views of people here are some kind of broader, universal truth is quite frankly foolish. My Tamil and Punjabi neighbours in Malvern are far more likely to be sympathetic to Ford's message than the concerns of many from these parts. I am increasingly curious about why that is, and how their concerns can be addressed on a forum like this.
kEiThZ
Superstar
The PCs will pick up some. But I think the NDP is going to get decimated next election. Those voters will flee to the Liberals to try and stop Doug Ford. I expect a lot of Liberal pickups from NDP ridings. The real question is whether the NDP pickups in Toronto and the North outweigh the PC flips in the outer 416 and the 905.
christiesplits
Senior Member
Another big question is how the large Ford support in TCHC clusters play out in ridings like Toronto Centre or Spadina-Fort York. Do they chip away more Liberal votes or NDP votes? Or does Ford reach out to constituencies who wouldn't have voted had Ford not been on the ballot?
Right now there's only one NDP incumbent running for re-election in Toronto, Peter Tabuns. Also, I would reckon that most of the NDP's support in SW and NW Ontario is in ridings where Ford's populist platform - not Wynne - is far more attractive.
We're really in uncharted territory. Ford Nation doesn't have any clear political stripes. The PC's ceiling seems as high as 80 seats in the new 124 seat legislature.
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kEiThZ
Superstar
Why would they even bother? Just write off Northern Ontario and Ottawa. And campaign where they actually have a shot. The Liberals and the NDP duking it out in the North, also means the Liberals draining resources there.