[kEiThZ]

Don't be so sure - considering he was quick to promise action on the Sex Ed file. Abortion is a totally different story that even he won't want to touch with a 10 foot pole, and this ain't the US.

AoD

Either way, abortion is not something you can't open up at the provincial level anyway.

I sincerely hope the Liberal campaign is not centred around Sex Ed. It will become a distraction from the economic issues that are driving most voters this summer.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

Either way, abortion is not something you can open up at the provincial level anyway.
I sincerely hope the Liberal campaign is not centred around Sex Ed. It will become a distraction from the economic issues that are driving most voters this summer.

Well, he can do it peripherally if he wanted to, but anything more and you'd be sure the government will get dragged to the courts and lose.

Agreed, sex ed is not the salient issue of this campaign - there are bigger fishes to fry (and besides, you can't do anything if you lose).

AoD

 

[kEiThZ]

Edit. Sorry. Meant to say can't open up at the provincial level.

 

[kEiThZ]

Well, he can do it peripherally if he wanted to, but anything more and you'd be sure the government will get dragged to the courts and lose.

Agreed, sex ed is not the salient issue of this campaign - there are bigger fishes to fry (and besides, you can't do anything if you lose).

AoD

I fear the Liberals may think this is a social issues like campaign. Like when they struck Tory out over the religious schools funding pitch. That will not work this time.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

I fear the Liberals may think this is a social issues like campaign. Like when they struck Tory out over the religious schools funding pitch. That will not work this time.

It depends on the audience - don't talk social issues in the inner suburbs/905. Talk transit, talk public safety, health care, etc.

AoD

 

[narduch]

I fear the Liberals may think this is a social issues like campaign. Like when they struck Tory out over the religious schools funding pitch. That will not work this time.

They do seem to be putting all their eggs in the social spending basket. That's why they have introduced programs like their limited pharmacare. And why they are willing to run a deficit in an election year.

They think they can spend their way to victory.

They have been pretty silent on concrete transit initiatives.

 

[animatronic]

Why would they even bother? Just write off Northern Ontario and Ottawa. And campaign where they actually have a shot. The Liberals and the NDP duking it out in the North, also means the Liberals draining resources there.

Because he was just bullshitting. Of course he isn't going to take a single hour of French class. He bullshits everything.

 

[MetroMan]

Had the NDP realized that they can’t become the anybody but Ford alternative with Horwath and held a convention to elect a new leader, I think that many would easily move from the Liberal column to the NDP.

It’s kind of crazy to consider that now but the PCs bumbled through a disastrous leadership convention a couple of months from the election and polls show them leading by 10 points. Dropping Horwath right now would be a masterful political stroke by providing a fresh face to go up against Doug.

 

[ADRM]

It’s kind of crazy to consider that now but the PCs bumbled through a disastrous leadership convention a couple of months from the election and polls show them leading by 10 points. Dropping Horwath right now would be a masterful political stroke by providing a fresh face to go up against Doug.

I'm super interested to see their response. Do they continue to run, as they have been, as essentially centre-right alternatives, trying to capitalize on DoFo's coronation and stealing some #NeverFord centre-righters? Or do they position themselves on an ideological par or to the left of the Liberals and try to steal away would-be Liberal support and make a pitch as the "real" left-of-Ford alternative?

It's a big strategic decision, and there's probably a way they could try to do both through their platform whenever they release it. I imagine they'll wait to see what the Liberals do in their budget and then make that final decision, though. I don't think they can promise less than whatever the Liberals will (especially on transit, to the point made in a different post above) and hope to hive off Liberal support, especially in the 905 and Toronto, without which they couldn't form a government.

 

[King of Kensington]

In spite of KW's personal unpopularity, I wouldn't rule out a stampede of Toronto progressive voters to the Liberals. This is after all the PCs led by DOUG FORD.

The NDP fortunately seems to have some popular MPPs in the "rust belt" (like Wayne Gates in Niagara and Taras Natyshak in Essex) who may block Ford's PCs from prevailing in some rust belt ridings. But I think the NDP's populist-rust belt strategy has probably maxed out in terms of seats. Anything that stuck with Hudak in 2014 (Sarnia, Chatham and so on) will find Ford more appealing.

 

[King of Kensington]

It'll be interesting to see how the 905 goes. Under Ford, I see a seat like Woodbridge as more likely to flip PC than say, Oakville . Peel Region is a bit of a mystery. For all the hype about Ford's huge support among immigrants and working class voters, he didn't do that well in Peel which is full of both. Jagmeet Singh's brother sounds like he's very serious about running in Brampton East.

 

[narduch]

Under Ford, I see a seat like Woodbridge as more likely to flip PC than say, Oakville . .

I don't know. The only time that riding ever went Conservative recently was with Star candidates (Fantino, Palladini). They are running a nobody vs. Steven Del Duca.

That being said if the PC's trounce the Liberals I could see the candidate (Michael Tibollo) riding the wave to victory.

 

[kEiThZ]

In spite of KW's personal unpopularity, I wouldn't rule out a stampede of Toronto progressive voters to the Liberals.

People keep saying this. But they forget that geography matters. You can get 100% turnout in progressive areas in downtown Toronto and it won't mean a thing in real terms to this election.

It'll be interesting to see how the 905 goes.

What it will really come down to in the end.

 

[christiesplits]

Like the Democratic Party in 2016, I think the Ontario Liberals are in danger of being the party of the professional urban class. Similar to Clinton winning the Upper East Side, Orange County and NW Virgina, I can see a scenario where the Ontario Liberals get relegated to as few as 15-20 seats. These seats will be overwhelmingly professional, urbane, with many 30 and 40 somethings in fields like tech and healthcare. Think downtown Toronto, some ridings in Peel, Halton, KW and some ridings Ottawa. These are communities that are affluent with solid community structures and social and economic stability.

However, if you can't afford a home, if your kids are swimming in student debt, you are working check-to-check, and life seems to be getting harder, Ford becomes a sort of savior. He's easy to understand for the average voter, and he can point to a million scapegoats. And unlike Trump, he appeals particularly to newcomers.

Likewise, I could see some historically 'blue' and upper crust pockets, such as North Toronto, resisting Ford Nation. Heck, in stuffy pockets of Toronto like Don Valley West and Eglinton-Bathurst, Doug Ford came third behind both John Tory and Olivia Chow.

We're entering a totally new landscape. Ford Nation is politically agnostic; they cheer Ford like he's their favourite hockey player, not a politician.

 

[King of Kensington]

People keep saying this. But they forget that geography matters. You can get 100% turnout in progressive areas in downtown Toronto and it won't mean a thing in real terms to this election.

They do look at the horse-race and forget. See Olivia Chow in 2004, who was widely expected to win in Trinity-Spadina but lost because of "stop Harper" sentiment.