[OneCity]

In a world where the province's entire budget is being spent in Toronto, maybe.

It's like some of you think the government only cares about transit and only about Toronto.

Over the next 4 years, I foresee no more than the 905 LRTs already on the books (and that's debatable), Ottawa's Stage 2, London's Shift, and for Toronto, finishing Eglinton, the SSE, and improving GO. RER is doubtful. And Finch West is under threat.

Nothing major will happen for additional funds until the next Federal election. If Trudeau remains in power he may not work well with Ford. If a Conservative is Prime minister i believe we see a good partnership as far as infrastructure goes. Atleast this Premier is from Toronto and is all about subways so it's the best chance Toronto gets solid funding with a loud voice. Wynne was not the same voice

 

[innsertnamehere]

In a world where the province's entire budget is being spent in Toronto, maybe.

It's like some of you think the government only cares about transit and only about Toronto.

Over the next 4 years, I foresee no more than the 905 LRTs already on the books (and that's debatable), Ottawa's Stage 2, London's Shift, and for Toronto, finishing Eglinton, the SSE, and improving GO. RER is doubtful. And Finch West is under threat.

why exactly do you think this? What indicates that this will occur?

RER is a huge political machine, much more so than any 905 LRTs. Finch would cost essentially as much to cancel as it would to build it at this point, it's staying.

And $5 billion in new transit funding was a key part of Ford's platform. He's not gunna pull a u-turn and *cut* 5 billion from transit funding.


What will happen is we will see Yonge North, DRL, SSE start construction, with Sheppard doing it's planning this term. Finch, and Hurontario will get built. Hamilton is dependent on Municipal outcomes. RER is safe. I expect Waterfront East (not west) will cobble together some funding from the Feds and the Municipality, bypassing the province.

I expect we will see some high deficits for a few years to pay for his tax cut promises, along with severe operating spending cuts. Expect hospital, school, etc. funding cuts, but I expect capital spending will remain largely the same.

Even then, If economic growth continues as it is, the budget can probably mostly flatline with the tax cuts being paid for by economic growth. The Ontario economy is expected to grow by around 2% in 2018 - That is $2.5 billion in additional tax revenue.

 

[narduch]

Most of the available money will be squandered on the SSE.

There won't be enough money to pay for other projects and other PC promises unless they plan to run a massive deficit.

 

[OneCity]

why exactly do you think this? What indicates that this will occur?

RER is a huge political machine, much more so than any 905 LRTs. Finch would cost essentially as much to cancel as it would to build it at this point, it's staying.

And $5 billion in new transit funding was a key part of Ford's platform. He's not gunna pull a u-turn and *cut* 5 billion from transit funding.


What will happen is we will see Yonge North, DRL, SSE start construction, with Sheppard doing it's planning this term. Finch, and Hurontario will get built. Hamilton is dependent on Municipal outcomes. RER is safe. I expect Waterfront East (not west) will cobble together some funding from the Feds and the Municipality, bypassing the province.

I expect we will see some high deficits for a few years to pay for his tax cut promises, along with severe operating spending cuts. Expect hospital, school, etc. funding cuts, but I expect capital spending will remain largely the same.

Even then, If economic growth continues as it is, the budget can probably mostly flatline with the tax cuts being paid for by economic growth. The Ontario economy is expected to grow by around 2% in 2018 - That is $2.5 billion in additional tax revenue.

Exactly. The Eglinton lines and Waterfront LRT are the only ones on hiatus everything else moves forward and there is now zero Opposition to prevent these plans, unlike what was faced at City council. The Feds will continue to be more involved at the table as well moving forward and next Federal election is a good timing of a top up of funds. I dont imagine Ford will very be quiet when requesting required funds from above I see this Admin being very good for the much needed capital infrastructure. Operational funds likely not so much.

 

[44 North]

Wonder if we can do Eglinton East, minus the LRT. In other words do all the capital works/beautification, which is a major aspect of in-media LRT/BRT. But save the LRT part for another date. Would still be huge improvement.

RER I can see subsiding. Not relative to the PCs, I think this would happen regardless of who won (even if Libs). As the plan exists today it's not binary, it's a phased process to a long-term goal. We'll just see the phases drawn-out a bit and changed up, which again would likely be the situation anyway. More diesel, less electric, LSE+LSW will be delayed longer (even though it always should've been front and centre).

Hopefully with a project like hypothetical Sheppard ext we think of ways of bringing down costs. Not lame one-liners that mean nothing, I mean actual tangible ideas. Ditto for SSE. There are no doubt ways to bring its costs down and add stations. No stupid 100' deep Lawrence.

 

[centralblue]

However if they are going to eventually connect Sheppard to STC would it not make sense to start the design work so that when the TBM got to STC form th line 2 extension it could keep going up McCowan to Sheppard and turn for the run home to Don Mills. I mean if we are going to blow our load on subways lets at least keep things moving so something that can pretend to be useful gets completed.

 

[muller877]

On the upside, we won't be hearing an announcement from Il Duce anymore.

Rod Phillips is a likely Transportation Minister, and as much as he has to do the Dougma Dance, he is well up on the portfolio, and acquitted himself very well on the Agenda's Transportation special a few weeks back.
https://tvo.org/transcript/2502779/...teve-paikin/the-ontario-transportation-debate

Being from Ajax, regional transit is high on his agenda.

I'm not so sure he will be. I would say that the "inner circle" will be Elliot, Phillips, Bethlenfalvy, Mcleod, Mulroney, Fedeli and Rickford.

Elliot (Health), Fedeli (Deputy Premier) and Rickford (Natural Resources/Northern Affairs/Ring of Fire) each can run a Ministry and Ford doesn't have to worry about what they do.
Bethlenfalvy I would pick as Treasury Board to help with the "efficiencies" to be found in the gov't. But he also would be ideal to cut the red tape for transit construction. Maybe a super-Treasury role that includes both Treasury and cutting red-tape
Which leaves Mcleod or Phillips as Finance Minister. Personally I would want the experience the Mcleod has for the education file (and more moderate than Monte).
Which leaves Phillips in Finance
And Mulroney as transportation. Fairly high profile which will give her 8 years of development and then she's ready to take over either provincially or federally (unless she screws up)

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

Exactly. The Eglinton lines and Waterfront LRT are the only ones on hiatus everything else moves forward and there is now zero Opposition to prevent these plans, unlike what was faced at City council. The Feds will continue to be more involved at the table as well moving forward and next Federal election is a good timing of a top up of funds. I dont imagine Ford will very be quiet when requesting required funds from above I see this Admin being very good for the much needed capital infrastructure. Operational funds likely not so much.

Eglinton West is almost passed the point of no return and runs right through doug's neighbourhood. It's getting built. EELRT is another story however.

In a world where the province's entire budget is being spent in Toronto, maybe.

It's like some of you think the government only cares about transit and only about Toronto.

Over the next 4 years, I foresee no more than the 905 LRTs already on the books (and that's debatable), Ottawa's Stage 2, London's Shift, and for Toronto, finishing Eglinton, the SSE, and improving GO. RER is doubtful. And Finch West is under threat.

GO transit will help maintain votes in the 905. He needs Georgetown, Milton and Brampton to stay in power.

 

[syn]

The SSE is about the most sure transit project you'll get from this government. They just won over half the seats in Scarborough, and were close in the other two. And the SSE is tied to the Ford brand. It's getting built. Even if they have to cancel every other project for the 416 to deliver it.

Then they'll have to deal with the consequences, which likely won't be too favourable.

 

[syn]

Calm down. At least the Ontario NDP are a respectable party again

For how long though?

This was their chance to win. If the Liberals can get their act together I can see them becoming the main option next election. In normal situations I'd think we'd have at least two terms of PC government, but with Ford in charge you never really know.

 

[gweed123]

Over the next 4 years, I foresee no more than the 905 LRTs already on the books (and that's debatable), Ottawa's Stage 2, London's Shift, and for Toronto, finishing Eglinton, the SSE, and improving GO. RER is doubtful. And Finch West is under threat.

I think we'll wind up seeing a scaled back version of RER, perhaps only using diesel instead of electric. There are numerous additional track and grade separation projects that are associated with RER, but that aren't directly part of RER, and I think those will continue (Stouffville double-tracking, LSE 3rd track, Burloak grade separation, etc). Many of the service increases, even diesel increases, are predicated on those projects going ahead.

As for Finch West, I think it's safe, as the contract was signed just before the election. Unless Ford wants his own Gas Plants scandal, I think he'll let it go through.

 

[OneCity]

For how long though?

This was their chance to win. If the Liberals can get their act together I can see them becoming the main option next election. In normal situations I'd think we'd have at least two terms of PC government, but with Ford in charge you never really know.

Exactly and the NDP did this with a very likeable leader and a collapsed Liberal party. Will Horwarh even continue after this term? After the Liberals clean house they will certainly take back many seats from the NDP. Would take more than a crack scandal and a great Liberal leader to stop from 2 terms of Ford

 

[kEiThZ]

why exactly do you think this? What indicates that this will occur?

RER is a huge political machine, much more so than any 905 LRTs.

Do you guys actually talk to people off this forum? In real life. The average person has exactly zero clue about RER. And given the massive price tag and near decade long timeline, it's a huge target.

Now I will agree that improved GO service would be a huge political asset for them. But full blown RER? I have my doubts.

And $5 billion in new transit funding was a key part of Ford's platform. He's not gunna pull a u-turn and *cut* 5 billion from transit funding.

His platform promised many things. He won't have the funds to pay for all of them. Time will tell. But I have a feeling his caucus cares more tax cuts than transit.

They'll give him his signature project: the SSE. So he can say he delivered. The rest? That gets to compete with all their other promises. Like the 15 000 new long term care beds he promised, while budgeting for a third of their actual cost. Do you think the Boomers who elected the PCs care more about RER or long term care?

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

His platform promised many things. He won't have the funds to pay for all of them. Time will tell. But I have a feeling his caucus cares more tax cuts than transit.

They'll give him his signature project: the SSE. So he can say he delivered. The rest? That gets to compete with all their other promises. Like the 15 000 new long term care beds he promised, while budgeting for a third of their actual cost. Do you think the Boomers who elected the PCs care more about RER or long term care?

People have also forgotten that their base cares overwhelmingly about cars/highways (hence a promise to reduce gasoline price) - and the majority of people in the 905 are not transit users - not even GO.

The only saving grace, if any, is the Federal interest in this file - and the strings it comes with may induce some level of commitment to the projects.

AoD

 

[kEiThZ]

I think we'll wind up seeing a scaled back version of RER, perhaps only using diesel instead of electric. There are numerous additional track and grade separation projects that are associated with RER, but that aren't directly part of RER, and I think those will continue (Stouffville double-tracking, LSE 3rd track, Burloak grade separation, etc). Many of the service increases, even diesel increases, are predicated on those projects going ahead.

This is exactly what I envision.

A huge problem for RER is that the average Joe has no clue about it. The cost is huge, a lot of it upfront and delivery in the second or third them. That's not attractive to any politician.

So I think they'll try to do some enabling works and increase GO service. Something all their 905 MPPs can point to.