[hw621]

This is exactly what I envision.

A huge problem for RER is that the average Joe has no clue about it. The cost is huge, a lot of it upfront and delivery in the second or third them. That's not attractive to any politician.

So I think they'll try to do some enabling works and increase GO service. Something all their 905 MPPs can point to.

Without electrification SmartTrack is dead though...

 

[Avenue]

If you believe Doug Ford would build shit in areas that have no chance of flipping to him in next election (e.g. DRL) you're so gullible and I cannot believe how you've made it so far.

Not only he's not interested in building anything useful, he's just not competent enough.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

I think we'll wind up seeing a scaled back version of RER, perhaps only using diesel instead of electric. There are numerous additional track and grade separation projects that are associated with RER, but that aren't directly part of RER, and I think those will continue (Stouffville double-tracking, LSE 3rd track, Burloak grade separation, etc). Many of the service increases, even diesel increases, are predicated on those projects going ahead.

As for Finch West, I think it's safe, as the contract was signed just before the election. Unless Ford wants his own Gas Plants scandal, I think he'll let it go through.

I'm more worried for eglinton east but even that is becoming more city based. And it's in Scarborough. I don't think any transit is as in danger as the people on this forum say it is.

 

[rbt]

What will happen is we will see Yonge North, DRL, SSE start construction, with Sheppard doing it's planning this term. Finch, and Hurontario will get built. Hamilton is dependent on Municipal outcomes. RER is safe. I expect Waterfront East (not west) will cobble together some funding from the Feds and the Municipality, bypassing the province.

Only if we completely ignore maintenance.

After subways are uploaded, Metrolinx will have a ~$700M/year SOGR capital program on their hands just to keep what we have in working order. $7B per decade is not trivial, does not have a dedicated funding stream, and a chunk of that federal/provincial cash was going to be put toward it just as has been done in the past (rolling stock orders, resignalling system, etc.). Ford indicated he would contribute $160M/year toward it; that'll keep water out of the tunnels but won't buy new trains to run in them.

A tax cut will put significant pressure on the provinces borrowing capacity which is already tight; so borrowing even for capital will challenging for a few years.

I think you need to take ~$4B in items off your list for this term; perhaps in his second term (2022 to 2026) if the province goes it alone (federal cash is to last through 2028; Trudeau got almost no polling bump from the investment so is not likely to double-down on it).

I agree that Finch is safe. Also, I won't be sad if waterfront west dies too (GO + actual fare integration + frequent local bus service would offer cheaper + better service for that area).


Of course, I also expect Ford will experience a recession (through no fault of his own) which will also put a crimp on borrowing capacity: US economic confidence polls are quite high, a strong sign that the market will soon (if not already) overheat.

 

[BurlOak]

Imo

Scarborough
Sheppard
Yonge
Finch West DRL
Eglinton West

I think Eglinton East will be built, but it's going to be 50/50.

Based on the past 10+ years - it appears that only one project goes at a time. As long as the PC's can do better than that, they can check the box as an accomplishment.

I would expect Scarborough to go first. And they put a little thought into reducing cost and adding the 2 missing stations (or essentially adding the stations for no cost). That way they can add their brand onto it.
Eglinton West design would proceed as grade-separated, with start of construction near the end of first term.
DRL will maybe be sent back to the drawing board for some value engineering. Sheppard design will be dusted off and re-iterated.

Sheppard and DRL will then be carried to a point where they would be campaign promises for the second term to actually start construction.
GO improvements would be ongoing, but that is more of a trickle and not 1 specific project with ribbon cutting.

 

[gweed123]

This is exactly what I envision.

A huge problem for RER is that the average Joe has no clue about it. The cost is huge, a lot of it upfront and delivery in the second or third them. That's not attractive to any politician.

So I think they'll try to do some enabling works and increase GO service. Something all their 905 MPPs can point to.

Those enabling works are already largely either tendered, out for RFP, or are substantially into design. They should be relatively easy to accomplish, or at least be mostly through, in one term.

To me, those enabling works are more important than electrification. If the electrification can gets kicked down the road another 4 years, that's not the end of the world. Just get the track and bridge work done so that all that's needed for RER is some substations, catenary, and procure new vehicles. You can still get service increases in the meantime.

I'm more worried for eglinton east but even that is becoming more city based. And it's in Scarborough. I don't think any transit is as in danger as the people on this forum say it is.

Eglinton East was on the chopping block anyway, because it's been bundled with the SSE. And there's no way that thing is staying on budget.

 

[kEiThZ]

Eglinton West is almost passed the point of no return and runs right through doug's neighbourhood. It's getting built. EELRT is another story however.

I actually think Eglinton end-to-end could just happen with this government. Ford's hood on one end, Scarborough on the other. Which is why I said he'll finish Eglinton. For me that means more than just ECLRT.

All that said, I'd caution about "point of no return". Ford's own dad helped cancel the Eglinton subway the last time around. You have to have substantial construction before you hit PNR. Government's cancel contracts from the last government all the time. Chretien paid hundreds of millions to cancel the EH-101 contract. Ottawa paid tens of millions to cancel the last LRT contract. Toronto paid millions to cancel the SLRT. Eglinton West is less further along than all of those.

GO transit will help maintain votes in the 905. He needs Georgetown, Milton and Brampton to stay in power.

Which is why I said he'll improve GO. You don't need RER to deliver better GO service. People on this forum forget that.

Then they'll have to deal with the consequences, which likely won't be too favourable.

What consequences? A good chunk of their MPPs would be able to sell the SSE. And with Eglinton Crosstown and Finch West coming on line, they'll be covered nicely. They don't need much more investment to protect their seats. Look at the electoral map. Their next move after the SSE is either Sheppard or Yonge North. SSE is a must though. It's tied to Ford's image and covers most of their Scarborough MPPs.

Without electrification SmartTrack is dead though...

DMUs are a thing. You don't need electrification for Smart Track. Though, I've always maintained and continue to do so that Smart Track is going to get rolled into GO. And once Metrolinx takes over the Toronto subway network, this will become all the more obvious.

 

[kEiThZ]

People have also forgotten that their base cares overwhelmingly about cars/highways (hence a promise to reduce gasoline price) - and the majority of people in the 905 are not transit users - not even GO.

AoD

This bears repeating. I can't believe people think this government is actually going to build more transit than the Liberals. That's some seriously sugary Kool-Aid.

The only saving grace, if any, is the Federal interest in this file - and the strings it comes with may induce some level of commitment to the projects.

I can almost see Ford being spiteful towards the Trudeau Liberals and not taking all the cash if he has to put in more. But we'll see. With transit, I don't think it's Ford driving this as much as the caucus. And they'll game out what they need to win. Between transit and all the other competing priorities they have.

 

[hw621]

DMUs are a thing. You don't need electrification for Smart Track. Though, I've always maintained and continue to do so that Smart Track is going to get rolled into GO. And once Metrolinx takes over the Toronto subway network, this will become all the more obvious.

Oh, I thought the last time we check diesel just cant accelerate and decelerate fast enough for the SmartTrack stop spacing...

 

[rbt]

Oh, I thought the last time we check diesel just cant accelerate and decelerate fast enough for the SmartTrack stop spacing...

A DEMU (Diesel generator, electric motor) can do all the tricks of an EMU at the cost of lugging around many tons of extra weight; if spec'd/manufactured to do so.

 

[kEiThZ]

Oh, I thought the last time we check diesel just cant accelerate and decelerate fast enough for the SmartTrack stop spacing...

There's options here. Change stop spacing. Skip stops. DEMUs. Hydrail. Battery-Electric trains. There's more than one way to skin the proverbial cat.

Smart Track is going to get sorted out with the RER, GO, TTC, Metrolinx reshuffling that is sure to come shortly.

 

[BurlOak]

I actually think Eglinton end-to-end could just happen with this government. Ford's hood on one end, Scarborough on the other. Which is why I said he'll finish Eglinton. For me that means more than just ECLRT.

If Ford can find a way of fixing Eglinton, it would be a win.

1. First off, it would be fully grade-separated - what Ford and his supporters want.
2. It basically goes through a number of PC or near PC ridings.
3. Then it would highlight how bad the Liberal plan was and the entire Eglinton line would be viewed as a PC project.
4. Then it would also have relatively quick completion time.

The only downside is that since it's currently under construction, the cost to do this now may be excessive.

 

[hw621]

There's options here. Change stop spacing. Skip stops. DEMUs. Hydrail. Battery-Electric trains. There's more than one way to skin the proverbial cat.

Smart Track is going to get sorted out with the RER, GO, TTC, Metrolinx reshuffling that is sure to come shortly.

That will drive Toronto mayor, council and taxpayers crazy, if they are still paying for the "SmartTrack" stations...

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

This bears repeating. I can't believe people think this government is actually going to build more transit than the Liberals. That's some seriously sugary Kool-Aid.

I can almost see Ford being spiteful towards the Trudeau Liberals and not taking all the cash if he has to put in more. But we'll see. With transit, I don't think it's Ford driving this as much as the caucus. And they'll game out what they need to win. Between transit and all the other competing priorities they have.

But but but he is the greatest transit advocate we've had!

I can see him wanting to do so out of spite, but at the same time, Fed cash is one of the few ways to keep the Ontario budget from blowing up.

AoD

 

[BurlOak]

This bears repeating. I can't believe people think this government is actually going to build more transit than the Liberals. That's some seriously sugary Kool-Aid.

The past 10 or 12 years, the Liberals have built 2 major transit project - basically one after the other. As long as the PC's can have 2 projects underway at the same time, it will be viewed as improved progress on transit. Nobody believes that the Liberals would have proceeded concurrently with construction on the numerous projects that they started design.

I can almost see Ford being spiteful towards the Trudeau Liberals and not taking all the cash if he has to put in more. But we'll see. With transit, I don't think it's Ford driving this as much as the caucus. And they'll game out what they need to win. Between transit and all the other competing priorities they have.

I see almost the opposite. Rely on the federal Liberal election promise to fund 1/3 of all projects and come forward with a number of projects. The federal Liberals would then say that there was only a finite financial commitment, and only 1 or 2 projects can be funded. That will actually spite Trudeau.