[kEiThZ]

Question is... will they leave troops in Crimea and the Donbas?

If they leave everywhere but, it will leave more than enough troops and firepower to clear out both.

Step 1: Withdraw to Feb 23rd lines.

Step 2: Withdrawal to Crimea when they lose Donbas.

Step 3: Withdrawal to Russia.

 

[afransen]

As someone else said, the Russian lines are falling to pieces. This is turning into Putins Afghanistan, his Vietnam if you will.

Much like Afghanistan contributed to the fall of the Soviet Union, I can see the war in Ukraine contributing to the fall of Russia as we know it.

This is far worse than Afghanistan or Vietnam.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

Way, way worse.

Neither of the conflicts mentioned had losses like this. Both in materiel or personnel. And neither Afghanistan for the USSR or Vietnam for the USA, saw a wholesale destruction of credibility of those countries as military powers. The Ukrainians have truly shown the world that the emperor is naked.

Also you have to wonder what the broader implication will be - considering his forays in Syria and Mali. Assad ought to be a tad worried because Daddy won't be there for him soon.

AoD

 

[Richard White]

You have to wonder just how good their nukes are - sure you don't need that many to work, but you do wonder what conditions their nuclear arsenal is in.

AoD

If I had to guess, not very. With all their focus on Hypersonic missiles I feel like this is a "small p****, big ego" overcompensation.

They talk the talk but I doubt their tech is more modern than about 20ish years. .

 

[Richard White]

Way, way worse.

Neither of the conflicts mentioned had losses like this. Both in materiel or personnel. And neither Afghanistan for the USSR or Vietnam for the USA, saw a wholesale destruction of credibility of those countries as military powers. The Ukrainians have truly shown the world that the emperor is naked.

Won't be long before they start firing off Scud-C's.

 

[afransen]

It will be interesting to see whether Putin will be able to hold on in the face of this humiliation. And would Russia do something rash in the face of this collapse.

 

[Richard White]

It will be interesting to see whether Putin will be able to hold on in the face of this humiliation. And would Russia do something rash in the face of this collapse.

I think he can salvage things *IF* he does not lose Crimea and/or the Donbas. These were the whole reason he initiated this war and if he loses them it will be confirming it as a failure. It would also go so far as to tell the Russian people that their children, family, etc all died for Putin's ego.

You need to remember, Ukraine has always been looked upon as subservient to Russia. Russia looks down upon Ukraine as if they are beneath them. Losing the Donbas and especially Crimea to Ukraine would be like Canada invading the US and winning.

It would be bad, very very bad for Putin to lose Crimea or the Donbas to Ukraine.

 

[kEiThZ]

It will be interesting to see whether Putin will be able to hold on in the face of this humiliation. And would Russia do something rash in the face of this collapse.

Who is going to challenge him?

One of the few things Putin has been successful at is neutralizing all potential rivals. There's a reason the Russians have so many branches of their armed forces and so many private militias. Makes it hard for a military coup.

Military losses don't always mean the end of power for the dictator. That can hang on for quite a while after.

 

[Richard White]

Who is going to challenge him?

One of the few things Putin has been successful at is neutralizing all potential rivals. There's a reason the Russians have so many branches of their armed forces and so many private militias. Makes it hard for a military coup.

Military losses don't always mean the end of power for the dictator. That can hang on for quite a while after.

This may be the case but if the Russian Oligarchs see him as a lame duck or a risk in any sense of the word he may find himself at a Dacha under guard.

 

[kEiThZ]

This may be the case but if the Russian Oligarchs see him as a lame duck or a risk in any sense of the word he may find himself at a Dacha under guard.

The oligarchs exist at Putin's pleasure. Not the other way around. Go check out what happened to Mikhail Khodorkovsky, if you want an idea of what happens to oligarchs who challenge Putin. At least he managed to keep his life in exchange for loss of wealth. Others were not so lucky.

At least eight Russian businessmen have died in apparent suicide or accidents in just six months

At least eight prominent Russian businessmen have reportedly died by suicide or in as yet unexplained accidents since late January, with six of them associated with Russia's two largest energy companies.

www.cnn.com

 

[Richard White]

The oligarchs exist at Putin's pleasure. Not the other way around. Go check out what happened to Mikhail Khodorkovsky, if you want an idea of what happens to oligarchs who challenge Putin.

That may be true but one thing I have learned about Russia is never to underestimate their pride.

They are a proud nation, a proud people. They very much hate being seen as weak and will not hesitate to stage a coup if that happens. As I said, look at Gorbachev in 1991 when he was working towards the breakup of the USSR or Yeltsin when he was power tripping in 1993.

Both Gorbie and Yeltsin were not forced out but it just goes to show what happens when leaders are ineffective in Russia and the people are pissed.

 

[Bjays92]

I know this hasn't been mentioned publicly in a long time but behind closed doors there is still genuine concern about use of chemical weapons and tactical nukes (chemical weapons are much more likely but there are brand new plans and contingencies for fighting a nuclear war). I'm not suggesting it'll come to that, but if Putin were to contemplate chemical weapons, this is almost certainly the moment to use them, specifically on Ukrainian forces bearing down on Kherson.

 

[Richard White]

I know this hasn't been mentioned publicly in a long time but behind closed doors there is still genuine concern about use of chemical weapons and tactical nukes (chemical weapons are much more likely but there are brand new plans and contingencies for fighting a nuclear war). I'm not suggesting it'll come to that, but if Putin were to contemplate chemical weapons, this is almost certainly the moment to use them, specifically on Ukrainian forces bearing down on Kherson.

I highly doubt that Putin would violate the Geneva Protocol in such a public way.

Using chemical weapons in Ukraine would be akin to using nukes

 

[DSC]

I highly doubt that Putin would violate the Geneva Protocol in such a public way.

Using chemical weapons in Ukraine would be akin to using nukes

I fail to see why you think Putin would care if he violated the Geneva protocols (in any way) as he has violated so many 'norms' already. If it's a choice of a firing squad or an angry mob vs breaking some 'law' I doubt the law would win!

 

[Bjays92]

I started typing out a reply, and then saw DSC's comment.

It's exactly what he said. I'm not implying Putin will use chemical weapons or nukes, I'm simply stating if he were to, this is kinda the time to do that.

Putin is a man with his back against the wall, he's faced with a variety of options. He could go out quietly like Hitler, he could go out with a bang, or he could find a way to hold on to power still somehow. Underestimating him is not a good idea.