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I need to post that video again on Putin's priorities. Regime survival is not helped by using WMDs in Ukraine of any kind. It will harden European opinion and bring on worse sanctions (full visa ban for example). And it would guarantee the entry of the US and UK at least into the fight in Ukraine, making the Russian casualties worse. Why do that when you can rain white phosphorus every night in Ukraine without consequences?


Putin can take the loss. He will deal with challenges at home by increasing repression. So why escalate abroad, where he has less control, when he can escalate at home where he has full control?
 
DSC said:
I fail to see why you think Putin would care if he violated the Geneva protocols (in any way) as he has violated so many 'norms' already. If it's a choice of a firing squad or an angry mob vs breaking some 'law' I doubt the law would win!
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Yes but unlike Syria which was a small scale conflict in the middle of nowhere, Ukraine borders 4 NATO countries and is under intense surveillance.

Chemical Weapons are highly unpredictable, hence why they were so feared in WW1 and why they were prohibited. If Putin were to use Chemical Weapons, it would be found out almost immediately.

The US and the EU would detect the use of chemical weapons and it would provide reason for invading Russia or at the very least joining the War in Ukraine.

Chemical Weapons are highly unpredictable and could easily drift across borders into a NATO country without any sort of control. That would bring NATO into the conflict.

Putin is stupid but he is not that stupid. Using Chemical Weapons would mean bringing the US, UK and Germany into the war.
 
kEiThZ said:
I need to post that video again on Putin's priorities. Regime survival is not helped by using WMDs in Ukraine of any kind. It will harden European opinion and bring on worse sanctions (full visa ban for example). And it would guarantee the entry of the US and UK at least into the fight in Ukraine, making the Russian casualties worse. Why do that when you can rain white phosphorus every night in Ukraine without consequences?


Putin can take the loss. He will deal with challenges at home by increasing repression. So why escalate abroad, where he has less control, when he can escalate at home where he has full control?
Click to expand...
I'm not convinced Putin can take the loss, however I do agree completely that WMDs are not condusive to regime survival. I thought I've been quite clear in that WMDs are a possible route for Putin to take should he feel his regime will not survive, not in other circumstances.

I'm simply not convinced of the stability of his regime at the moment. It will be interesting to see what comes of his meeting with Xi later this week.
 
This is from 11pm last night our time:

1663071237096.png

source:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1569524295961026562

I believe from additional online sources that is likely that that Ukrainians have successfully hit the Russian barracks in Kherson. (the town/city for clarity).

I can't accurately assess any damage, or the means, though HIMARS would seem a likely choice.
 
There's more emerging about how Ukraine planned it's counteroffensives. Zelensky is going to go down as a modern day Churchill. It's him who instructed the UAF to get more aggressive. And they went from planning one large offensive to two, and gamed them out with the Brits and Americans. And now both have exceeded expectations.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569659732452937731
 
That's a very fine line that the US did not cross.

Technically, they just provided the ammo and intelligence but did not fire off a shot themselves. Gotta love technicalities!
 
Richard White said:
That's a very fine line that the US did not cross.

Technically, they just provided the ammo and intelligence but did not fire off a shot themselves. Gotta love technicalities!
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You think Ukrainians dying instead of Americans is a mere technicality?
 
kEiThZ said:
You think Ukrainians dying instead of Americans is a mere technicality?
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Not at all, I am saying the US is involved but not involved, if you get my thinking.

They involved themselves in the war by providing the ammo and intelligence but did not involve themselves in such an overt way as to start shooting Russians thereby dragging themselves into the war.
 
kEiThZ said:
Some of you were worried about Russia using nukes. Meanwhile the Russians are sending personnel from the Strategic Rocket Forces to fight as infantry. The Ukrainians just captured one.


https://twitter.com/x/status/1569834731944177667

To be honest, I'm shocked to learn they let conscripts near their nuclear deterrent. But Russia be Russia I guess.
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I wonder if Putin won't order a general mobilization because he is running out of qualified personnel to train conscripts.

It seems like he is scratching the bottom of the barrel.
 
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