New April 2-3 poll from Mainstreet (behind paywall)
24% - Chow
23% - Bailao
13% - Saunders
9% - Matlow
8% - Bradford
8% - Penalosa
7% - Hunter
****
8% - Other candidate
This is much more in line with the kind of situation I was expecting vs. the previous poll that had Saunders so high and Bailao so low.
Saunders being lower here is good for the city and good for the election I think. If Saunders is a threat to winning we'll just get stuck in strategic lesser evil fear voting pushing people to safe candidates and making it hard for other candidates to gain support to overcome the hurdle. I welcome a situation where different candidates can put forward ideas and attract votes and support without people feeling compelled to go to a safe candidate or one they wouldn't otherwise vote for due to strategic voting.
And even though my recent post was sharply critical of Bailao, she's certainly not a terrible result as mayor (I find the dishonesty around the presentation of the Gardiner ""~plan~"" and such so frustrating in particular because I expect better of her and find it depressing to see her do that) and I think would be better than Tory. She's certainly not going to inspire nearly as much fear-based strategic voting as Ford or Saunders.
On Penalosa, I agree he should drop out. But I wonder if he might think Matlow should drop out and support him. Given the headwinds against Matlow, perhaps Gil actually would be the better candidate — or thinks he is — for a shake-things-up progressive candidate. But with Gil what it comes down to for me is I just don't think he will, can, or even intends to build the political machine necessary to win. At least Matlow probably will bring a perspective of running an election campaign, get out the vote, fundraising, etc.
Presuming say half or more even of the Bradford vote collapses into Bailao that puts her over the top. But if Chow's in the race there's a lot of potential sources she could pick up votes from due to either general progressive alignment but also her being a recognizable figure: Penalosa, Matlow, Hunter, from undecideds and even probably from candidates you wouldn't expect. Who knows, you could even have a Saunders -> Chow crossover voter from someone who isn't as traditionally partisan-aligned or some may be more inclined to vote for people who they know of as public figures.
Bailao could also pick up votes from Hunter, Saunders, others. Honestly not sure how this is going to play out if Chow's in the race. I think she could win and I think Bailao could win, but I might give the edge to Chow based on public-figure awareness and perhaps more other candidate sources of votes to draw on.
If Chow doesn't enter the race I have even less clue of what will happen. Where does her 24% go? There's no obvious candidate.
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