[ChazYEG]

Smith often uses the term "capital region" - I don't think she is as anti-Edmonton as you think.

It's less about what she says, and more about what she does.

Hot take on the general balance of Alberta politics:

1 - immigration patterns, especially interprovincial (in the short term) will likely push the province, but especially Calgary slightly to the left of where it is.

2 - Rural AB will eventually lose representation, due to the ridiculous pace of population growth in Edmonton and Calgary.
If projections for the next 20 years materialize, the CITIES of Edmonton and Calgary will account for about 65~70% of the province's population, with their CMAs accounting for about another 8~10% and less than 20% of the population living in rural AB (even less if you consider that cities like Red Deer, Lethbridge and Medicine Hat are not exactly rural). There will be pressure for redistribution of seats, for obvious reasons (most likely increasing the total number of MLAs)

3 - these two things together will create a very tricky situation for the UCP, being the dominant party in the province. They'll HAVE to try and get votes out of the (possible) new seats in Edmonton, and fight tooth and nail to keep all of their Calgary seats. This will probably make for some interesting shifts in the Conservative attitude towards Edmonton.

 

[Yeggy]

Smith often uses the term "capital region" - I don't think she is as anti-Edmonton as you think.

She may not be, but her base hears Edmonton and starts frothing like a rage zombie.

 

[Yeggy]

It's less about what she says, and more about what she does.

Hot take on the general balance of Alberta politics:

1 - immigration patterns, especially interprovincial (in the short term) will likely push the province, but especially Calgary slightly to the left of where it is.

2 - Rural AB will eventually lose representation, due to the ridiculous pace of population growth in Edmonton and Calgary.
If projections for the next 20 years materialize, the CITIES of Edmonton and Calgary will account for about 65~70% of the province's population, with their CMAs accounting for about another 8~10% and less than 20% of the population living in rural AB (even less if you consider that cities like Red Deer, Lethbridge and Medicine Hat are not exactly rural). There will be pressure for redistribution of seats, for obvious reasons (most likely increasing the total number of MLAs)

3 - these two things together will create a very tricky situation for the UCP, being the dominant party in the province. They'll HAVE to try and get votes out of the (possible) new seats in Edmonton, and fight tooth and nail to keep all of their Calgary seats. This will probably make for some interesting shifts in the Conservative attitude towards Edmonton.

Its not tricky they will just takes small chunks of the cities and drown them in rural votes. Its not like we haven't seen it done before.

The number of seats in the leg are currently capped by law and the PC’s have bemoaned large riding for years saying they cant service their riding.

Never underestimate the want of those who have power, to retain power.

 

[yeggator]

3 - these two things together will create a very tricky situation for the UCP, being the dominant party in the province. They'll HAVE to try and get votes out of the (possible) new seats in Edmonton, and fight tooth and nail to keep all of their Calgary seats. This will probably make for some interesting shifts in the Conservative attitude towards Edmonton.

I've said this before, but with our provincial politics being a competitive 2-party system (especially if current demographic trends hold), the UCP can't afford to neglect Edmonton, and the ridings within city limits that sit along the Henday will become more competitive battlegrounds. If the UCP's government makes sincere efforts to serve the needs of Greater Edmonton, particularly in healthcare, and the economy continues to do well, they can easily flip seats in the South/Southwest, West End, parts of the Northwest and Sherwood Park and St. Albert. It'll be like Stelmach's premiership. I don't see it happening under Smith, but if they get a leader from the "Capital Region" or elsewhere in Northern Alberta, it's quite likely.

 

[yeggator]

Comrade Dani out here doing more to promote state owned corporations than the NDP did. We just gotta get the Feds to commit to a Canada wide auto insurance regulation and we'll get it!

Plot twist: Danielle Smith is a train-loving socialist larping as a hardcore conservative to infiltrate the UCP.

 

[occidentalcapital]

She may not be, but her base hears Edmonton and starts frothing like a rage zombie.

Don't think this is true either

Base includes a lot of central and northern AB

Edmonton is their place for shopping, eating out, they are usually oilers fans not flames fans, etc.

 

[The_Cat]

I’ve lived in Sherwood Park most of my life and I’ve always said I'm from the Edmonton region

 

[northlands]

Don't think this is true either

Base includes a lot of central and northern AB

Edmonton is their place for shopping, eating out, they are usually oilers fans not flames fans, etc.

I disagree… the opinion of Edmonton in rural areas (whether central, north, wherever) generally is “socialist ****hole”followed by distasteful comments about our supposed far left mayor, city council, NDP MLAs, etc.

Yes they come here for Oil games and WEM but mostly it’s followed by comments about all “bums and addicts” after they look across the street from Rogers.

No slight to anyone from rural AB and I know this is just anecdotal generalization but again there’s a good reason virtually all of rural AB is a UCP stronghold while Edmonton is all orange.

 

[occidentalcapital]

I disagree… the opinion of Edmonton in rural areas (whether central, north, wherever) generally is “socialist ****hole”followed by distasteful comments about our supposed far left mayor, city council, NDP MLAs, etc.

Yes they come here for Oil games and WEM but mostly it’s followed by comments about all “bums and addicts” after they look across the street from Rogers.

No slight to anyone from rural AB and I know this is just anecdotal generalization but again there’s a good reason virtually all of rural AB is a UCP stronghold while Edmonton is all orange.

Generalizations can be fun to make but ultimately not useful for describing collections of individuals.

Edmonton metro area isn't all orange, and most edmontonians aren't die hard left wingers. Federally edmonton is very conservative. when you look at the federal vs provincial electoral maps, it seems like the big reason people voted NDP was strategic- they thought it would be better for the city and were worried about health and education services

Equally, NDP also picked up thousands of votes outside 2 major cities, it just wasn't enough to make a majority in many ridings.

You might be thinking of a very specific type of person but my point is just that you shouldn't assume the entire UCP base is made up of that person.

 

[Garneau2Go]

We might be more left, and there are deep roots of left wing politics here. The overton window has moved so much in the last decade that it's hard to really pinpoint where we're at but I'd say we're still closer to "PCs" (bordering on blue grits) than the reactionary right.

Think Ed Stelmach and Allison Redford vs...whatever mess we have now.

 

[Airboy]

we are missing that slightly right of centre. The OLD PCs.

 

[ChazYEG]

Edmonton metro area isn't all orange, and most edmontonians aren't die hard left wingers. Federally edmonton is very conservative.

Most Edmontonians are very pragmatic and will vote whoever they feel will benefit them the most, through a very objective lens.

Also, while volunteering in door-to-door campaigning, in several neighborhoods and ridings, I heard so many times that people miss the old PCs, because they were not as far right and ideological as the UCP (and even part of the CPC... Have heard a lot of the "crazy ideology" refering to Pierre Polievre recently).

 

[David A]

Generalizations can be fun to make but ultimately not useful for describing collections of individuals.

Edmonton metro area isn't all orange, and most edmontonians aren't die hard left wingers. Federally edmonton is very conservative. when you look at the federal vs provincial electoral maps, it seems like the big reason people voted NDP was strategic- they thought it would be better for the city and were worried about health and education services

Equally, NDP also picked up thousands of votes outside 2 major cities, it just wasn't enough to make a majority in many ridings.

You might be thinking of a very specific type of person but my point is just that you shouldn't assume the entire UCP base is made up of that person.

I don't think generalizing too much is entirely accurate. Many northern Albertans do visit Edmonton regularly and probably have various impressions of the city, both good and bad, that are somewhat grounded in reality.

However, I think there is a significant number of UCP supporters, probably some from other parts of rural Alberta that don't come here often who might have less informed views.

 

[Kosy123]

Yeah nah, I'm sorry, like Northlands said, I'm not trying to disparage rural Albertans since the voting patters of many in rural Alberta are "retail politics" and not ideological in any manner at times. (Who shows up to this event or so and so gets my support). The average voter in rural AB isn't the same as the party base of the UCP. There are strong progressive folks living in rural AB, and we saw that in this recent election.

The average rural voter doesn't matter in this equation, what sets the direction of the party and influences MLA's and party organs is the party membership. Largely, that base has vitriolically turned to the right. Take Back Alberta has essentially taken over the membership and a significant amount of Constituency Associations and Executive Leadership posts within the UCP. These people live in a massive bubble and echo chamber and it's difficult to even approach or have conversations within this bubble.

If this was the UCP of 2019? You could argue that the base was less insane, but heavily micromanaged by Jason Kenney. Now? Nope. It's the same base which has absolute frothing hate for pronouns and 15 minute cities, and nothing exemplifies those values in Alberta more than Edmonton. Frankly, the fact that we have a person of colour as the mayor reinforces that base's hatred. You cannot believe the amount of vitriol I've heard in person and online about the city and the mayor based on that.

The UCP base just genuinely hates this city, and probably will continue to do so and increase in intensity as the city grows in size, scope and influence. Frankly, the biggest "f-you" this city can ever do is literally grow and be more influential. You wanna spite the provincial conservatives? Boost this city to hell and back.

 

[kcantor]

^
i also found it interesting how many of that base that are opposed to “15 minute cities” actually live in one of the scores of “15 minute cities” scattered all around the province.