[CalgaryTiger]

Do the polls motivate people to vote NDP or do they cause people to back the likely winner?

Either way next Monday isn't the end, UCP candidates in Calgary are on doors telling voters they'll work to oust Smith.

 

[DougB]

Smith has been signing contracts with raises for unions. The last raises for those unions were under the PCs after Redford and before Prentice.

I’m not sure your conclusion matches with reality.

Are the raises lower than what the NDP would have approved under $80 oil and 4% inflation?

 

[Ned]

President of Mainstreet Research shows that in 7 Calgary ridings the undecided voters are leaning toward the NDP 7 to 1.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1661834055313248258

He also suggests that less than 1000 votes could be the difference between a 45-42 UCP win and a 45-42 NDP win.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1661817235680239616

 

[darwink]

It is really interesting. We’re so used to assuming an either equal in the ground effort or a superior Conservative effort. What I’ve seen is an unfocused and under volunteered UCP ground game and a very strategic and well resourced NDP ground game.

Now does that make a difference on election day? Historically a good local level campaign can close an 8% gap I remember learning decades ago. Will differential local campaigns lead to a lot of surprises?
¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

[Surrealplaces]

President of Mainstreet Research shows that in 7 Calgary ridings the undecided voters are leaning toward the NDP 7 to 1.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1661834055313248258

He also suggests that less than 1000 votes could be the difference between a 45-42 UCP win and a 45-42 NDP win.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1661817235680239616

The undecided vote going toward the NDP seems to match the most recent Abacus poll.

 

[Surrealplaces]

Just finished voting. My advice is to vote during the day if you are able. There was nobody in line when I went to vote, but I imagine come 4:00pm it's going to pile up quickly.

 

[Mountain Man]

I went Saturday morning at the advance polling station, was in and out in 5 minutes.

 

[UrbanWarrior]

This one is a nail biter… but I’m losing hope. Looks like the NDP only has a shot in exactly 44-46 districts, and a comfortable lead in only 29. One to three losses means we lose. Bleh.

Either way, heading out to vote because fuck neo-fascists!

 

[Surrealplaces]

In situations like this every vote counts . Even if voters think it won't affect the outcome of the riding, every vote gets counted, and after the election many will be analyzing the numbers. If the UCP wins, which I suspect will be the case, tonight's numbers will also show that many of the Calgary ridings were close and it at least sends a message.

 

[Duck Lightning]

A UCP majority. RIP healthcare

 

[UrbanWarrior]

Literally in the wackos speech she was basically like “oh yeah and fuck Ottawa and this entire federation!” She actually showed some grace and what I thought might be an incling of intellect up until that point. Silly me.

Honestly though, the result suuuucks but holy shit, the NDP taking 38 seats!!! Not the result I wanted, but actually sorta thrilled to see we have a real path to victory next time, which didn’t seem possible yesterday.

 

[darwink]

Yesterday Notley was less than 2000 votes from being Premier.

Which should raise eyebrows: because they would have lost the popular vote by a wide margin and won the seat count.

 

[UrbanWarrior]

Wowzers! Yeah! I can’t believe how close some of the ridings are, especially in Calgary! NDP leading by 30 and 7 in Glenmore and Acadia, respectively. UCP holding Calgary North and Northwest by 113 and 149, respectively. A lottt of districts well under a thousand difference, including East Lethbridge. There is a clear path to victory in 2027. We lost this battle, we’ll win the war.

Also of note, NDP has a secure victory (1500+ vote separation) in 27 districts at least. More than their entire caucus last election. It would be unbelievable if they had won, but I’m still in awe at this result.

 

[Mountain Man]

Well shit....

 

[Surrealplaces]

I guess the numbers aren't overly surprising. I had thought maybe 4 of the toss-up ridings that were leaning UCP (Calgary Bow, Calgary North, Calgary NW and Calgary Cross) might surprise and go NDP. Calgary East and Lethbridge-East were not far off either. As Darwink had alluded to, if the NDP had 2-3k more in votes, they could have taken it. That said, there were some seats the NDP won that were very close as well.

The big takeaway for me is and what is not good news for the UCP is the amount of votes the NDP got in Calgary. The NDP winning 14 seats (close to winning 18) in Calgary is significant. As I've said before, the cities are future for Alberta elections. It makes me wonder what would happen if the NDP had a leader from Calgary for example.