[JonnyCanuck]

Well the Sovereignty bill passed the legislature in the wee hours of this morning. Significant change was that the power to change legislation solely by Smith and her cabinet, is now maintained within the legislature. I guess as long as the UCP have a majority they can still manipulate this bill to their liking.
There were less than 35 members that were in the legislature at the time of voting (UCP 27 vs NDP 7). I don't understand how a bill as controversial as this is allowed to pass without a full house in attendance or say at least 90% of members.

 

[CalgaryTiger]

Well the Sovereignty bill passed the legislature in the wee hours of this morning. Significant change was that the power to change legislation solely by Smith and her cabinet, is now maintained within the legislature. I guess as long as the UCP have a majority they can still manipulate this bill to their liking.
There were less than 35 members that were in the legislature at the time of voting (UCP 27 vs NDP 7). I don't understand how a bill as controversial as this is allowed to pass without a full house in attendance or say at least 90% of members.

As long as they had the quorum. And honestly it's not the fact that the bill passed that's the problem, it was going to, it's the spineless conga line (apologies to the Cuban carnival dance of the same name) of UCP MLAs that got behind this. I will never forget the long list of disasters the UCP manufactured and then stood around mouth breathing (sorry to mouth breathers) looking at each other.

 

[Chinook Arch]

I am actually shocked and appalled at how close it is.

I agree the spread should be further. Calgary has had a hard time getting rid of the mentality that NDP=evil.
If the NDP can get in and do a decent job over the next term it’ll go a long way to helping get rid of that mentality. Especially if the economy can stay solid.

 

[JonnyCanuck]

I agree the spread should be further. Calgary has had a hard time getting rid of the mentality that NDP=evil.
If the NDP can get in and do a decent job over the next term it’ll go a long way to helping get rid of that mentality. Especially if the economy can stay solid.

The NDP will have to demonstrate how they are going to attract business investment to Alberta and create private sector jobs. That may require further investment in fossil fuel projects as well as other industries. I realize some policies of our current federal government have been the main hurdles with oil & gas investment and an NDP provincial government may not be able to overcome that if the Liberals remain in power.

 

[CalgaryTiger]

Maybe this is oversimplifying it but IMO if the NDP get in and are a stable, predictable government and the current business trends continue, they'll do just fine and could be re-elected in 2027. If things change, that could mean another single-term government.

A recession is coming. Can the Alberta economy stay strong through that recession? If it falters and falls off a cliff the NDP will be blamed.

Our housing market doesn't have as far to fall as places like Toronto and Vancouver but a collapse in housing will be felt by all incumbent governments even though the province has the least to do with it.

How much longer will the Russian invasion go on? If it drags on this benefits Alberta O&G. I mean Cenovus is already talking of 25% growth in their natural gas business. If prices come down and we truly have reached peak oil, the NDP will be blamed.

Are we coming out of a pandemic and having a bad fall or has our healthcare system really started to deteriorate? If its the former and the healthcare system gets some time to catch its breath in the spring and summer, the NDP could get credit for righting the ship. If its the latter, its time for hard questions and likely cold hard cash, which could label them as the high spending government. Especially if the money doesn't equal results.

(Quick aside: I know nothing about healthcare and how to do it best but when I was at a small conference on hybrid work solutions and so were 15 people from AHS, it really made wonder if it's as lean as it could be.)

 

[JWhite]

The NDP will have to demonstrate how they are going to attract business investment to Alberta and create private sector jobs. That may require further investment in fossil fuel projects as well as other industries. I realize some policies of our current federal government have been the main hurdles with oil & gas investment and an NDP provincial government may not be able to overcome that if the Liberals remain in power.

I don’t recall the UCP under Kenny doing anything differently than the NDP did under Notley.
There has been a steady stream of non-O&G business coming to Calgary, but can any of that be attributed to the UCP?
With respect to the O&G industry bouncing back, it had zero to do with the UCP. Not that the NDP would’ve bounced the industry back either, but either way it’s nothing to do with the provincial government.

 

[Silence&Motion]

There's a new Angus Reid Poll out that has the UCP up by 4 points (48 to 44) provincially. However, it also has the NDP leading by 11 points in Calgary (51 to 40). They show a higher lead for the NDP in Calgary than in Edmonton, so I'm not sure what to think about that.

 

[Silence&Motion]

I don’t recall the UCP under Kenny doing anything differently than the NDP did under Notley.
There has been a steady stream of non-O&G business coming to Calgary, but can any of that be attributed to the UCP?
With respect to the O&G industry bouncing back, it had zero to do with the UCP. Not that the NDP would’ve bounced the industry back either, but either way it’s nothing to do with the provincial government.

The NDP's 2015 victory and 2019 loss was more about electoral math than any world events or economic indicators. They won because they unexpectedly united the progressive vote while the right splintered. Once the PC and WR parties merged, it's hard to see any scenario in which the NDP would hang on to power. Indeed, the NDP actually increased their overall vote total from 2015 to 2019.

The fact that the NDP has the potential to win with a clean majority of votes in 2023 is probably a good indicator that they did everything they needed to do during their one term in power. If the NDP does win, it will be the first time since the 1910s that the majority of votes in an Alberta election have gone to a non-conservative party. That's the real sea change.

 

[artvandelay]

I don’t recall the UCP under Kenny doing anything differently than the NDP did under Notley.
There has been a steady stream of non-O&G business coming to Calgary, but can any of that be attributed to the UCP?
With respect to the O&G industry bouncing back, it had zero to do with the UCP. Not that the NDP would’ve bounced the industry back either, but either way it’s nothing to do with the provincial government.

The NDP raised corporate income tax (in what was probably one of their most ideologically motivated and worst decisions as a government), while the UCP reversed that increase and more.

Corporate tax rates obviously have a direct and significant impact on capital budgeting decisions, both inside and outside the oilpatch. So to suggest that the recent influx of investment has zero to do with government policy is false. Of course, the impact of elevated global oil and gas prices and the ongoing energy crisis and realization that fossil fuels are here to stay has a far larger impact than any provincial policy.

The good thing is that I think the NDP learned a lot during their last term in government and they seem much better in tune with economic issues this time around, as evidenced by them bringing in a guy like Hirsch. So that's a huge positive!

 

[UrbanWarrior]

There's a new Angus Reid Poll out that has the UCP up by 4 points (48 to 44) provincially. However, it also has the NDP leading by 11 points in Calgary (51 to 40). They show a higher lead for the NDP in Calgary than in Edmonton, so I'm not sure what to think about that.

That’s hilarious. Can’t even take that with a grain of salt, it should just be completely disregarded.

Now that the sovereignty act has passed, UCP support will plummet to record lows.

 

[Unknown User]

There's a new Angus Reid Poll out that has the UCP up by 4 points (48 to 44) provincially. However, it also has the NDP leading by 11 points in Calgary (51 to 40). They show a higher lead for the NDP in Calgary than in Edmonton, so I'm not sure what to think about that.

https://calgaryherald.com/news/local-news/smith-led-ucp-pulls-into-statistical-tie-with-ndp-new-poll

I'm not a statistician but the results also seem questionable to me since "The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from Nov. 28 to Dec. 3, 2022 among a representative randomized sample of 591 Albertan adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum." would tend to skew heavily toward Russian bots. Regardless this quote from the Heard article tells you everything you need to know about support for Smith.

Those numbers represent a 10-point rise in support for the UCP compared to Angus Reid polling early in the year, a jump that reflects dwindling third-party support. Where the Wildrose Independence Party polled at 11 per cent in March 2022, only one per cent of respondents said they’d vote for them now.

 

[darwink]

and an NDP provincial government may not be able to overcome that if the Liberals remain in power.

If you believe this, neither did the PC vs the CPC nor the UCP with Trump. So ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Not like the UCP have a great record of success on this one.

 

[Just build it]

The NDP raised corporate income tax (in what was probably one of their most ideologically motivated and worst decisions as a government), while the UCP reversed that increase and more.

Corporate tax rates obviously have a direct and significant impact on capital budgeting decisions, both inside and outside the oilpatch. So to suggest that the recent influx of investment has zero to do with government policy is false. Of course, the impact of elevated global oil and gas prices and the ongoing energy crisis and realization that fossil fuels are here to stay has a far larger impact than any provincial policy.

The good thing is that I think the NDP learned a lot during their last term in government and they seem much better in tune with economic issues this time around, as evidenced by them bringing in a guy like Hirsch. So that's a huge positive!

I don’t know if a drop in corporate tax from 12% to 8% is the reason for the recent influx of all these non-O&G to Calgary. It certainly helped all the outbid province and out of country shareholders if oil patch companies.

It certainly didn’t hurt drawing in new companies, but if I’m a company looking to set up in Calgary I’m not going to base it on a tax rate that could change in a couple of years.
I would bet it’s more to do with the labour pool.
Maybe someone has some extra info on that?

 

[darwink]

Lack of labour pool was the number 1 piece of feedback from Amazon.

 

[Just build it]

Lack of labour pool was the number 1 piece of feedback from Amazon.

That makes sense to me. Skilled labour pools take a long to build up, and for some cities, they never build up.
I’m sure companies look at the long term history of tax rates in an area, but they can be changed overnight with a stroke of a pen, whereas a labour pool takes a long time to change.