I am aware that many posts have been made on this topic. I fully support the idea of HSR along the 401 corridor, with a triangular link to Ottawa and Montreal. But I have always had doubts, and stated them, that HSR will get funded in any meaningful way in the next decade.
Really, we need both.
I have always preferred the "Gananoque cutoff" solution, as it enables the creation of a regional rail service that could be really valuable for communities along the lakeshore, while also delivering a service that is just as good (likely better) Toronto-Ottawa.
That solution never found much favour here, because a) it was more expensive than HFR, so in the years where HFR was the going proposal, it ranked lower, and b) there still needed to be a solution for the Liverpool-Kingston section, where continued or expanded operation on CN is problemmatic. and c) being regionally locally focussed, it did not move far enough towards the higher-end solution.
But the upgraded Peterboro-lined HSR proposal makes sense to me also, as a "virtual airport" solution replacing airport capacity at Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal and QC only (albeit with the ability to improve first/last mile travel with suburban stops, and providing only enough stopping at Peterborough and Perth to satisfy a not-enormous local demand). The tipping point here is the projected need for investment in airport capacity and at what threshold is a top end HSR cost effective in relation to more airport investment. My gut says the tipping point is there, but it may take years for that to fully emerge. Included in that tipping point is the congestion created in first/last mile travel to airports.... take airport travel off the highways in Montreal and Toronto, and that removes many, many vehicles from the busiest highways.
There is a parallel (in my mind, anyways) to the history of the UP Express - where Ontario built the sexy, boutique solution of an airport express train before it addressed the more mundane question of the local transit capacity running on the same line. For a time we had a pricey airport train that was being appropriated by local commuters.... and then there was pressure to lower fares to support the local commuters.... and only then did ML actually address and add service for the local traffic. And we are still waiting for a true regional/local commuter 2WAD on that line. In hindsight, we should have installed the (mundane, not sexy) GO service first and deferred the (sexy, politically attractive) UP service until the bigger need had been met.
Using that precedent, I would value regional intercity service over the virtual airport. For this reason I would advise an incoming government to invest say $5B in the Gananoque cutoff, and make incremental improvements to Smiths Falls-Ottawa and Ottawa - Montreal serivcces. That investment would throw some fire on the demand for the airport replacement, and would provide more stimulus to more regional development and housing growth - and remove more congestion. And it's affordable, and politically sellable, where HSR may not be under current conditions.
In phases, I would build a new line alongside or close to CN/CPKC between Liverpool and Kingston. The CN line is already triple tracked for a fair ways from Belleville eastwards. Building in phases, say 40 kms every few years, would be affordable and would not trigger the same sticker shock. It might also draw funding from both federal and provincial coffers.
But that's all free advice that Ottawa isn't considering, HSR is likely a go-no go binary decision that turns on who the next government is.
- Paul
