[Urban Sky]

Going through Kingston would be quite the costly scope creep to the project.

Compared to going 300 km/h, electrified, and all the way to Quebec City, the incremental cost might be less than you think and the EA headaches actually reduced. It should certainly be considered and fully assessed before a decision is made.

To compare, this is how it looks like when Deutsche Bahn presents the options they consider during public consultations:

Sources: Presentations for the HSR lines Fulda-Gerstungen and Frankfurt-Mannheim

You can really research the full planning evolution of these line by skimming through these presentations…

 

[Urban Sky]

Query, why does it have to be only 2 tracks? how much more expensive would it be to do like 4 tracks? do express and local service then?

Rail Simulations Analyst here (i.e., my employer pays five-digits just for the software licenses which allow me to answer questions like these): What kind of service patterns (frequency, design speed, stopping pattern) are you expecting so that it could possibly justify 4 tracks?

Have a look at the Tokyo-Nagoya-Osaka Shinkansen schedule below which operates 16 trains in a single hour with rather diverse stopping patterns over a line with only 2 tracks (though complemented by 2 additional platform tracks at most stations):

 

[micheal_can]

Rail Simulations Analyst here (i.e., my employer pays five-digits just for the software licenses which allow me to answer questions like me): What kind of service patterns (frequency, design speed, stopping pattern) which could possibly justify 4 tracks?

Have a look at the Tokyo-Nagoya-Osaka Shinkansen schedule below which operates 16 trains in a single hour with rather diverse stopping patterns over a line with only 2 tracks (though complemented by 2 additional platform tracks at most stations):

View attachment 634602

So, a 2 track network with all stations having 4 tracks? I am guessing they use those station tracks as passing sidings?

 

[nfitz]

I doubt that we'd be looking at anything like that for decades or more.

I haven't heard if this HST will have some 1- track sections worth passing, like some of previous concepts. (Though they've got years to change that 5 times)

 

[11th]

So, a 2 track network with all stations having 4 tracks? I am guessing they use those station tracks as passing sidings?

The milk run trains have longer dwelling time at some stations for express trains to pass through.

 

[Jonny5]

And the point about population is not simply how big the city is, but how many are served along the length of the line.

Also often left out of this discussion is the demand to actually go to the other destinations.
Do people in Peterborough want to go to Montreal or Toronto all the time? Do you really think they would go if HSR existed? Why? That question is never answered, because the answer is they probably wouldn't, and even if they did they would still drive.
The market for these trips is smaller on a proportional basis in smaller cities. Instead of 10% considering it it's 1%. There's little to no business travel from Peterborough to Montreal.

 

[Mihairokov]

Anecdotal, but a lot of the seats on current VIA trains are taken up by Queens students going either from Ottawa or Toronto, especially on Thursday and Sunday nights but also at other times, too. It's worth bearing in mind that not only is Kingston a larger CMA than Peterborough, but Queens has roughly twice as many students as Trent does. I imagine any Peterborough users are likely going to be going to Toronto over Ottawa and especially Montreal. This is more an argument against HSR stopping in Peterborough than it is for HSR diverting to Kingston, but I think Peterborough is at such a location on the HSR line that it makes sense to stop there, especially because it is not serviced by any other rail presently.

The idea of a GO line to Peterborough has been discussed here previously and I believe that convo ends at there being no real good intermediary stops between Scarborough and Peterborough and that there would be little point if Peterborough is already being serviced by HSR.

 

[Urban Sky]

Anecdotal, but a lot of the seats on current VIA trains are taken up by Queens students going either from Ottawa or Toronto, especially on Thursday and Sunday nights but also at other times, too. It's worth bearing in mind that not only is Kingston a larger CMA than Peterborough, but Queens has roughly twice as many students as Trent does. I imagine any Peterborough users are likely going to be going to Toronto over Ottawa and especially Montreal. This is more an argument against HSR stopping in Peterborough than it is for HSR diverting to Kingston, but I think Peterborough is at such a location on the HSR line that it makes sense to stop there, especially because it is not serviced by any other rail presently.

One thing worth noting is that transportation links are a crucial factor in determining in which city to study. If I can commute weekly or even on each campus day back to my parents’ place without a car, then my costs of living can be dramatically lower than a different university closer to me. I would therefore suspect that the observation that the capture area of Trent University is much more skewed towards the GTHA than Queens University might say more about the current supply of transportation options than the future demand for them. And that brings me to serving both cities with ALTO, which opens up all kinds of cooperations where students at one university may be allowed to take courses only available at the other, now that the journey between both cities is suddenly possible within an hour…

The idea of a GO line to Peterborough has been discussed here previously and I believe that convo ends at there being no real good intermediary stops between Scarborough and Peterborough and that there would be little point if Peterborough is already being serviced by HSR.

Correct, nothing but fields and forests between Locust Hill and Peterborough!

 

[just east of the creek]

How would you fit a HSR line through to Kingston and beyond?

Been to Kingston by road and rail and cannot see ant issues here.

 

[just east of the creek]

You're not even going to acknowledge that Kingston has a mainline for a freight railway and Peterborough does not?

You are correct.

 

[just east of the creek]

Population Peterborough = 86K
Population Kingston 137K
We aren't talking several orders of magnitude difference between these two cities.

Also, Kingston is only 2.5hrs to Toronto by VIA, so it's still within a comfortable distance of TO even without HSR.

As for London, perhaps extending the line there would be a future consideration.

Peterbourgh is a medium urban centre of 85,000 or thereabouts. London is a large urban centre of 430,000, KW is 525,000, Guelph another 145,000. And that does not include their surrounding catchment areas.

I think you have this backwards. Any line should include a link to Pearson and those three cities at a minimum now.

Your line then connects the largest urban centres, the major international airport connections (Pearson and Trudeau) and the regional GO networks and VIA networks to connect lesser centres of population.

Build the line to succeed, to foster growth, and to compete and service existing transportation networks. Building a line from Ottawa to Toronto through Peterborough and ignoring the balance of the urban 401 core of Ontario is a mistake.

 

[micheal_can]

Peterbourgh is a medium urban centre of 85,000 or thereabouts. London is a large urban centre of 430,000, KW is 525,000, Guelph another 145,000. And that does not include their surrounding catchment areas.

I think you have this backwards. Any line should include a link to Pearson and those three cities at a minimum now.

Your line then connects the largest urban centres, the major international airport connections (Pearson and Trudeau) and the regional GO networks and VIA networks to connect lesser centres of population.

Build the line to succeed, to foster growth, and to compete and service existing transportation networks. Building a line from Ottawa to Toronto through Peterborough and ignoring the balance of the urban 401 core of Ontario is a mistake.

Going west of Toronto, Pearson makes sense, but Guelph is too close to Kitchener that it would not be worth it. It has a GO link. It is the same as if we were looking t the Lakeshore West, no other stop between Toronto and Hamilton would make sense. You could argue that Mississauga is a large city so one at Port Credit should exist, but then it is not going to be high enough speed. The key with High Speed rail is lower number of stops.

 

[just east of the creek]

Going west of Toronto, Pearson makes sense, but Guelph is too close to Kitchener that it would not be worth it. It has a GO link. It is the same as if we were looking t the Lakeshore West, no other stop between Toronto and Hamilton would make sense. You could argue that Mississauga is a large city so one at Port Credit should exist, but then it is not going to be high enough speed. The key with High Speed rail is lower number of stops.

The reason for the stop would be to link to GO. But if KW had the same service (not at current levels) then that could be the stop. Or Milton? You are looking to connect to regional services.

On the west end……Oshawa.

 

[micheal_can]

The reason for the stop would be to link to GO. But if KW had the same service (not at current levels) then that could be the stop. Or Milton? You are looking to connect to regional services.

My expectations of a HSR west would be that there would be stops at Windsor, London,Kitchener,Pears and Union.

On the west end……Oshawa.

With Alto, it won't happen, but in a fantasy, sure...

 

[nfitz]

And we had already established that population alone does not move the needle towards either city, didn’t we?

Yes - I'm simply saying that wasn't what the OP was referring to.

And the point about population is not simply how big the city is, but how many are served along the length of the line.

I'm not disagreeing. Obviously Peterborough is the way to go if you are going for HSR and need a greenfield alignment. The reduction in overpasses and land acquisition costs (and distance) more than outweighs the extra construction cost in the Canadian Shield - assuming you don't need significant tunnelling.

Anecdotal, but a lot of the seats on current VIA trains are taken up by Queens students going either from Ottawa or Toronto, especially on Thursday and Sunday nights but also at other times, too. It's worth bearing in mind that not only is Kingston a larger CMA than Peterborough, but Queens has roughly twice as many students as Trent does. I imagine any Peterborough users are likely going to be going to Toronto over Ottawa and especially Montreal

Ancedotally - with hundreds of family and friends in Quebec, I've heard of a lot of people in Quebec going to Queens (or Toronto, Waterloo, Carlton, Ottawa, etc.). But not once have I ever heard of anyone from there going to Trent. Or Sir Sandford Fleming (which I seem to hear about as equal amount from people in this neck of the woods, and is larger).