since Montreal gets out 1st round pick this year
Not so fast
@Mountain Man from:
https://thehockeywriters.com/canadiens-crazy-conditions-flames-1st-round-pick/
I've underlined the most likely outcome.
Flames Trade Monahan and a First-Round Pick to the Canadiens
For future considerations, the Canadiens acquired Monahan and
a conditional 2025 first-round pick from the Flames. They needed to free up cap space to sign free agent (FA) Nazim Kadri,
which they did soon after for $7 million annual average value (AAV) over seven seasons. The Canadiens will use the cap relief from Price’s LTIR to cover Monahan’s $6.3 million price tag and probably sign Kirby Dach.
The pick has conditions involving both the Flames’ pick and the other first-round pick they acquired earlier in the offseason from the Panthers in the Matthew Tkachuk trade. That pick also has conditions which could affect the Canadiens if they end up with Florida’s pick instead of the Flames’ pick, so essentially there are conditions on the conditions of the conditional picks involved—confused yet?
Panther’s Trade With Flyers Has Implications
The Panthers traded for Claude Giroux just before the 2022 Trade Deadline, which involved their 2024 first-round pick. Florida then traded their 2025 first-round pick
to Calgary in the offseason for Tkachuk; both picks have conditions of their own which will affect the conditions of whichever first-round pick the Canadiens are receiving from the Flames.
The conditions on the Panthers/Flyers are as follows: if the Panthers’ first-round pick in 2024 is in the top 10, then the pick the Flyers receive is transferred to 2025, and the Flames’ first-round pick in the Tkachuk trade is moved to the 2026 season. If the Panthers’ 2025 pick is first or second overall, then Calgary receives Florida’s 2026 first-round pick. Although these conditions probably won’t happen, they still need to be considered in case they do.
(
My own note: Panthers are currently 11 in the league standings, if they end up there the flyers get the 2024 Panthers pick and the Flames get the 2025 pick)
The Multiple Scenarios of the Conditional Pick sent to Montreal:
Here is a deep dive into the multiple conditions and outcomes of the conditional pick that the Canadiens are receiving from the Flames:
Scenario 1 – 2025 First-Round Pick
The Canadiens initially received the Flames’ 2025 first-round pick; however, if the 2024 first-round pick is between 20-32 of the 2024 Draft, then the Habs can decide within 48 hours of the 2024 Draft to use that pick instead.
If the pick is not between 20-32, or they choose not to take the 2024 first-round pick, then the
Canadiens receive either Calgary’s 2025 first-round pick or Florida’s first-round pick, depending on whether or not the Flames get the Panthers’ pick.
(My own note: Flames are currently 23rd in league standings, meaning they would pick 10th if they end up there.
Montreal gets a 2025 first)
Scenario 2: Calgary Receives Florida’s 2025 First-Round Pick
Several things could happen if the Flames receive the Panthers’ 2025 first-round pick.
If Calgary’s first-round pick is in the top 10 and Florida’s isn’t, then Montreal gets the Florida pick. If both picks are not in the top 10, then the Habs get the better 2025 first-round pick.
(My own note:
Which 2025 Flames first will not be determined until the end of the 2025 season)
Scenario 3: Calgary Doesn’t Receive Florida’s First-Round Pick
Montreal gets the Flames’ 2025 first-round pick if it is not in the top 10. If Florida’s first-round pick isn’t in the top 10 and is transferred to another team – to the Flyers or traded after a lottery win – and their 2025 pick is better than the Flames’ 2025 draft pick, Montreal will get an additional fourth-round pick plus Calgary’s first-round pick.
Scenario 4: Flames Have the First Pick in the 2025 Draft
If Calgary somehow manages to get the first overall pick in the 2025 Draft, Montreal will receive the Flames’ 2025 third-round pick and the Flames’ 2026 first-round pick. If the Flames are drafting anywhere from two to 10, then the Canadiens will still get the Flames’ 2025 first-round draft pick.