[darwink]

Given how reliable the high-level 10 year old estimates for constructing a greenfield rail line in Calgary have proven to be, I'm not sure I would want to rely entirely on 40 year old construction cost estimates as the basis for a decision today.

I agree on the estimate as a whole. But costs for both options should inflate at roughly the same rate. Whether the incremental cost to go 300 kph is worth it for the extra revenue, fair enough, though I'd also look at how high frequency rail evolved into going full HSR after seeing their tradeoffs (and they are building through much more difficult country) to inform an educated opinion before a study reconfirmed it.

An interesting part that only was in a study which no longer is publicly accessible commissioned by AAMDC, was looking at the amount of reduced value land, and sterilized land for various options, as you could either pay for the reduced value or do things like having far more grade separations. The Greenfield option in that study was estimated to use/sterilize/impact less than half of the land as the CPR option.

includes total passengers flying Calgary to Edmonton or actual Calgary to Edmonton air passengers;

They used in person surveys to tease that out, intercepting people in airports.

 

[Red Star]

I suspect this effect would be very small; you could live in Carstairs today, get affordable housing and take a 45 minute commute to downtown Calgary. Yet almost no one does this; almost no one even lives in Crossfield for a 30 minute commute. And sure, sitting on a train is easier than driving. But you could also live in Airdrie, Okotoks, Cochrane or Chestermere and have a roughly 45 minute transit commute to downtown Calgary - with nearly door-to-door service. There are 180,000 people living in these places, and only 11 buses need to be run every morning to handle the demand; I don't think all of the buses are full, either. Maybe 0.3% of the people in these places choose to do this commute.

This happens in places like New York and San Francisco where home prices are crazy, home building is slow and virtually all of the developable land has been taken. I love Calgary, but we do not compare to New York or San Francisco in this way.

The other place where this happens is when there are two nearby but different metro areas; couples will have one person working in Baltimore and one in Washington and live in between, or one in academia in New Haven and one in finance in New York. I suspect this would also be relatively infrequent.

I have a co-worker that takes the Airdire ICE into work everyday and he hates it. It's slightly cheaper than driving. His two biggest complaints are:

-The bus is slow and gets stuck in traffic along Deerfoot
-Last bus to leave downtown Calgary is a little after 5pm. So if he has to work OT, he's stranded.

 

[YYCguy]

I have a co-worker that takes the Airdire ICE into work everyday and he hates it. It's slightly cheaper than driving. His two biggest complaints are:

-The bus is slow and gets stuck in traffic along Deerfoot
-Last bus to leave downtown Calgary is a little after 5pm. So if he has to work OT, he's stranded.

The City of Airdrie is definitely targeting a niche market here. To hear City officials talk, they seem to think this a highly successful and well used service. If it’s so successful, I don’t know why they haven’t expanded the hours of operation. It would also be useful for some Airdrie residents to have a service to/from YYC airport. As it stands now, you either drive or take an expensive taxi to the airport or an even more expensive one back.

 

[Surrealplaces]

I have a co-worker that takes the Airdire ICE into work everyday and he hates it. It's slightly cheaper than driving. His two biggest complaints are:

-The bus is slow and gets stuck in traffic along Deerfoot
-Last bus to leave downtown Calgary is a little after 5pm. So if he has to work OT, he's stranded.

I have a couple of coworkers who live in Airdrie and they have the same complaints. They drive to work instead.

 

[Albertasaurus]

The City of Airdrie is definitely targeting a niche market here. To hear City officials talk, they seem to think this a highly successful and well used service. If it’s so successful, I don’t know why they haven’t expanded the hours of operation. It would also be useful for some Airdrie residents to have a service to/from YYC airport. As it stands now, you either drive or take an expensive taxi to the airport or an even more expensive one back.

ICE has decent ridership but unfortunately, Airdrie has a mayor and council who don't place much importance on transit. Mayor Peter Brown once said that ICE should be entirely self-sustaining (ie not rely on subsidies or taxpayer support). Not sure if his approach on this has changed, but with a population approaching 100,000 it doesn't seem like ICE service has expanded even as the population has exploded.

 

[CalgaryTiger]

We're getting close to the Calgary Airport Rail Connection Study being public.

Timelines​

• RFP for study consultant in market: Summer 2023 - COMPLETE
• RFP contract award: Fall 2023 – COMPLETE
• Planning, research and engagement with rail developers and key landowners: Fall 2023 – Summer 2024
• Host public information sessions to present Study outcomes: Fall 2024
• Present Study outcomes to City Council: Fall 2024

I assume Fall 2024 means early December? When I saw Dreeshan was at the airport for the Green Line quotes, I thought he might be announcing this, guess not.

 

[CalgaryTiger]

Alberta gathers experts to consult on passenger rail plan, opens public survey

Alberta is determined to bring passenger rail to the province, bringing together industry experts to create a master plan.

calgary.citynews.ca

Premier Danielle Smith and Minister of Transportation and Economic Corridors, Devin Dreeshen are hosting a one-day forum in Calgary Friday, where Alberta communities, industry, and experts will collaborate and share information on the opportunities and challenges of passenger rail.

The province says the forum includes experts from Ontario, Quebec, California, Italy, Spain, and Japan who are involved in passenger rail procurement.

The province says the ultimate goal is a government-led “Metrolinx-like” Crown corporation that will develop infrastructure and oversee daily operations, fare collection and booking systems, system maintenance, and expansion planning.

Alberta’s Passenger Rail Master Plan is expected to be completed by summer 2025 and will include a feasibility assessment, financial and delivery model options, governance and operations recommendations, a 15-year development plan, and public engagement.

Looks like they will go to the Crown Corp. model. See you in June 2025.

Take the survey: https://www.alberta.ca/passenger-rail

 

[CalgaryTiger]

We're getting close to the Calgary Airport Rail Connection Study being public.

Timelines​

• RFP for study consultant in market: Summer 2023 - COMPLETE
• RFP contract award: Fall 2023 – COMPLETE
• Planning, research and engagement with rail developers and key landowners: Fall 2023 – Summer 2024
• Host public information sessions to present Study outcomes: Fall 2024
• Present Study outcomes to City Council: Fall 2024

I assume Fall 2024 means early December? When I saw Dreeshan was at the airport for the Green Line quotes, I thought he might be announcing this, guess not.

Update: Looks like early 2025 for the airport rail study (per: https://www.alberta.ca/passenger-rail)

 

[YYCguy]

I filled out my survey, but one section I had no clue how to answer was the section on proposed fares. I wish they would have given us options of fare levels, rather than asking me for that number.

 

[CalgaryTiger]

I filled out my survey, but one section I had no clue how to answer was the section on proposed fares. I wish they would have given us options of fare levels, rather than asking me for that number.

I was lost on the fair part too but have been looking at train tickets in France so just used that as a reference… Maybe not the most accurate thing to do.

 

[Urban Outdoorsman]

I actually appreciated the fare question because they're hopefully able to get a sense of what people are willing to pay. I know personally that as much as I'd like to take a train, I'm fairly price sensitive and at certain point won't pay. For Instance I said 45$ would be a fair price for a one way Calgary to Edmonton trip. Now if the province does the math and decides that the cheapest they could offer tickets is $100, well then I'll just drive. If taking the train isn't the same or cheaper than driving, then good luck.

 

[outoftheice]

Alberta's passenger rail master plan scheduled for summer 2025 release

www-cbc-ca.cdn.ampproject.org

 

[UrbanWarrior]

They'd also be able to charge a premium on passengers going to the airports, which i think would net a lot of money, especially for Edmontonians coming down to catch their flights. Cutting out the fuss and muss of people driving the whole way, parking it and leaving it for ages. I think people would pay.