O-tac
Active Member
Isn't this proof that the hotel and residential tower components were just a bait and switch and that all along it was only about building the office component with no serious intentions of doing the rest?
This comment comes as an uninformed outsider, but I find the long-term, optimistic view of some of our downtown office developers pretty unreal. Some seem to have patience to just sit on sites for decades and decades rather than change up the plans to get something going in their lifetime.It will go when they find another anchor tenant to occupy the office component. Could be 5-10 years before that happens.
This comment comes as an uninformed outsider, but I find the long-term, optimistic view of some of our downtown office developers pretty unreal. Some seem to have patience to just sit on sites for decades and decades rather than change up the plans to get something going in their lifetime.
I would have thought after nearly a decade of all evidence pointing the other way - 8 years of 20%+ vacancy, 35% current vacancy, almost all projections pointing to a hybrid/less office space needed future indefinitely - there would be an eventual turning point where we'd start to see major rethinks to their development approach and not base a project on the office component at all (e.g. change up the res/commercial mix, smaller or more targeted projects etc.)
That said, I get the argument on tenant needs shifting as all our office stock gets older and different industries expect different amenities, floor-plates etc. As a result, overall vacancy only tells part of the story and niches can emerge that require a new build regardless on if there is vacancy elsewhere. But I would guess that is a pretty small stream of potential projects compared to spending a fraction of the money to refurbish a cheaper, existing building to be more contemporary.
Perhaps there's not much of a plan to change it up to - from all the other projects we see the condo and apartment market is steady enough, but probably still quite far from the booming, high-priced environment that would actually motivate a complete change to the plans of a dedicated office developer.
Again - I really don't know anything and I am sure I am painting too broad of a brush as every site and developer is in a different economic position. Just providing some Friday musing about why a company would be happy to sit on under-utilized and/or vacant parcel for decades.
In my experience, it's definitely quieter particularly on Mondays and Fridays and there's sections of the core that seem more vacant than they used to be. I think there's a pattern setting in of hybrid work in many downtown companies where 3 days of the week are in the office, 2 days remote. That must have driven some measurable drop in downtown activity. How noticeable this drop is probably depends on the context - there's been sections of the core that have long felt "vacant" of people and activity in the boom-est of boom times, apart from 3 hours a day for the rush-hours.I rarely venture into the CBD, so I’m wondering how well it’s returning to pre pandemic life. Are lots of people coming back to work downtown? Are the office buildings coming back to life, along with the retail and eateries? Is there demand for additional office/retail/residential space? Only asking because I don’t go downtown very much anymore.
It's possible it may never happen given some factors of today's world.It will go when they find another anchor tenant to occupy the office component. Could be 5-10 years before that happens.
I have lived downtown for the last 12 years, dine in restaurants quite frequently and therefore do lots of walking in the core. I don't work downtown so I am not able to comment on Mon-Fri daytime activity although one has to expect that with 'work from home' and a 30% office vacancy, it is far from what it was. Here is what I have observed from evenings and weekends.Are the office buildings coming back to life, along with the retail and eateries? Is there demand for additional office/retail/residential space? Only asking because I don’t go downtown very much anymore.
I'm downtown usually once a week, and I've noticed during daytime hours it has been getting busier. Definitely busier these days than it was in the spring. The first time I went into the office was in April, and I went down to the +15 and it was dead everywhere. No line-ups at coffee break time and hardly much for line-ups at lunch. These days line-ups are more common.I rarely venture into the CBD, so I’m wondering how well it’s returning to pre pandemic life. Are lots of people coming back to work downtown? Are the office buildings coming back to life, along with the retail and eateries? Is there demand for additional office/retail/residential space? Only asking because I don’t go downtown very much anymore.
If the definition of downtown includes the Beltline, then I would mostly agree with that assessment. However the downtown core (9th Ave north to the river) still has a feeling of emptiness to me. It is definitely not what it was pre-pandemic or 2012-14 oil boom. Take the 5 or 6 blocks of 8th Ave including the theatre district out of the mix, and we have one of the most spiritless, vapid downtowns in North America. IMOI believe someone posted an article about the downtown “bounce back” in vibrancy among North American major cities, and Calgary was either #1 or #2 if I recall. We are very lucky. This was about a year ago though.