TrickyRicky
Senior Member
My mistake I thought the presidential election will be in 2009. However November 2008 still gives 12 calendar months of Bush Jr., plenty of time for a quick and dirty good old fashion economic contraction.
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- Thread starter Jarrek
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unimaginative2
Senior Member
Dollar's climb sparks fears of economic disconnect
Stellar job numbers drive loonie past $1.07 as Canada's link with U.S. begins to erode
TARA PERKINS
With a report from Tavia Grant; Barrie McKenna
November 3, 2007
The rocket-propelled Canadian dollar flew past $1.07 (U.S.) yesterday, fuelled by strong economic data that have many forecasters wondering whether the economy is decoupling from its troubled southern neighbour.
Canada churned out five times more jobs than expected last month, a stellar showing that sparked a number of forecasts that the loonie is on its way to $1.10, as the greenback continues to dive.
While that's good news for Canadians who are planning to travel to the United States this holiday season, it will likely mean more pain for manufacturers, exporters and the tourist industry on this side of the border.
A speedy rise in the currency's value is concerning because of its effect on business, which has trouble planning in a volatile environment, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said yesterday. There is mounting pressure on the Bank of Canada to reduce interest rates in order to cool the situation, but he suggested that's not the solution.
"It would be a mistake for anyone to think there is a quick fix to this, that were the Bank of Canada to do something that all of a sudden there would be a dramatic change in the value of the Canadian dollar," Mr. Flaherty told reporters after a speech in Toronto.
Royal Bank of Canada, the biggest international trader of Canadian dollars, raised its forecast yesterday, saying it expects the loonie to hit $1.08 before falling back below parity in the second half of next year.
"We had thought that if the U.S. economy slowed down, the global economy would probably slow down, and that doesn't seem to be panning out as much as people thought," said David Watt, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets.
"If the currency is, to an extent, decoupling from the U.S., then it makes sense to come out with a Canadian dollar forecast which pays less relevance to the U.S. economy."
Mr. Flaherty said that decoupling is a strong word, but there has been an increase in the differences between the Canadian and U.S. economies.
Both countries had surprisingly strong employment numbers yesterday, throwing many market players for a loop, with economists at TD Securities coining the term "Jobtoberfest."
But, while the U.S. created twice as many jobs as economists had forecast for the month of October, the Canadian economy churned out 63,000 jobs, roughly five times the number that had been expected. The jobless rate in Canada fell to a 33-year low of 5.8 per cent, from 5.9 per cent in September, and the employment rate for adult women hit record levels.
Currency traders had believed that, if the numbers were weak, the Bank of Canada would make a statement that would take some of the wind out of the dollar's sails. "Instead, we get another blowout, and the jobless rate at a 33-year-low, and the average wage of a permanent employee is up 4.2 per cent and accelerating," Mr. Watt said. "You're sitting in the market looking at this, and you're like, there is absolutely nothing they can do to stop this," he said.
"So, where do you think the Canadian dollar is going to stop? You flip a coin and make side bets about just how far it can go."
Economists at BMO Capital Markets said the dollar's "rocket ride isn't likely done yet as the economic data remain solid, the U.S. dollar continues to weaken and oil prices move toward $100 (U.S.).
"With the currency already hitting a modern-day high after breaking $1.0614 (U.S.), the next threshold could be $1.10 (U.S.)," they wrote in a research note.
The high dollar is effectively putting American goods on sale for Canadian consumers, who are taking advantage by cross-border shopping.
To counteract that, a number of Canadian retailers announced that they're adjusting prices because of the exchange rate. Rexall Drug Stores and Rexall Pharma Plus said yesterday that all books, magazines and Hallmark cards will be sold at the U.S. list price effective immediately. Sears Canada Inc. said it has reduced some of its regular prices on a permanent basis.
Mr. Flaherty, who has been calling on retailers to lower their prices, said those that he's met with "almost uniformly have recognized that it's in their own interest to reduce prices..."
But the Finance Minister also pointed out that the strong dollar makes imported machinery and equipment cheaper for Canadian manufacturers. He said the manufacturing sector, which has long been adjusting to the rising loonie, has been largely resilient, although auto and forest firms are struggling, largely because of weakness in the U.S. economy.
Mr. Flaherty's mini-budget this week said "the appreciation of the Canadian dollar has helped to boost the volume of [machinery and equipment] investment, which has increased 48 per cent since early 2002, mirroring the increase during the high-tech investment boom."
"The second benefit of the higher dollar is to reduce the price of imported consumer goods," the mini-budget added.
STRONG DOLLAR HAS UPS AND DOWNS
Brian Lipton, a 50-year-old financial planner from Bethesda, Md., figures he and his family have been to Canada between 10 and 15 times over the past decade to ski.
He's about to plan a couple of vacations for this winter, but says he'll be avoiding Whistler, B.C., and Mont Tremblant, Que., because of the soaring loonie and steep cross-border air fares. Instead, he'll head to Utah,
Montana or Colorado.
"I always consider Canada, but I'm not even going to look at Whistler this year because I know it's going to be 30 per cent more expensive," he said.
As the loonie rapidly jumps to record heights, workers in Canada's tourism industry are among those that might suffer, although they've been coping with the dollar's gradual rise for years.
"The fact of the matter is we've seen the numbers from the United States fall off over the course of the last three or four years," said Anthony Pollard, president of the Hotel Association of Canada. "They can't really go too much further."
Meanwhile, Caledon, Ont., resident Sue Armstrong and her two daughters, Carly, 12, and Samantha, 15, were shopping up a storm in Manhattan yesterday, picking up winter boots and jackets they might otherwise have bought in Canada.
"The girls and I are shopping for pretty much the whole four days," Ms. Armstrong said on her cellphone from Macy's department store.
She's among the legions of Canadians who are taking advantage of the strong dollar to pick up bargains south of the border.
"Car buying in the U.S. is becoming a popular topic for clients," said Matthew Smith, who works at Expatriate Tax Services in Toronto.
"As well, there is a big interest in Florida real estate with the dollar being low and the real estate market correction."
Canisius College, which is less than a 10-minute drive from the Peace Bridge border crossing, received 365 applications for the fall semester from Canadian graduates looking for a second degree. That's a 20-per-cent increase, said Margaret McCarthy, dean of school education and human services.
She believes much of that has to do with the Canadian dollar, which is making it cheaper for Canadian students to pay the $1,560 (U.S.) tuition fee for each course.
Tara Perkins in Toronto and
Barrie McKenna in Washington
Drug-busting loonie?
The loonie's muscle just may have done what U.S. government and law enforcement officials could not.
The strong dollar has "virtually stopped all exports to the United States of cannabis," said Marc Emery, the leader of the B.C. Marijuana Party of Canada.
Five years ago, one pound of Canadian marijuana would cost $1,600 (U.S.). Now it's $2,550 (U.S.) a pound when sold in the United States, he said.
The price has stayed strong because demand from Canadians has been increasing, he said. "Canadians are buying it because our economy is really, really good and there's a lot more money in the country," he said. "Otherwise the price would have plummeted, plummeted I tell you."
Tara Perkins
Stellar job numbers drive loonie past $1.07 as Canada's link with U.S. begins to erode
TARA PERKINS
With a report from Tavia Grant; Barrie McKenna
November 3, 2007
The rocket-propelled Canadian dollar flew past $1.07 (U.S.) yesterday, fuelled by strong economic data that have many forecasters wondering whether the economy is decoupling from its troubled southern neighbour.
Canada churned out five times more jobs than expected last month, a stellar showing that sparked a number of forecasts that the loonie is on its way to $1.10, as the greenback continues to dive.
While that's good news for Canadians who are planning to travel to the United States this holiday season, it will likely mean more pain for manufacturers, exporters and the tourist industry on this side of the border.
A speedy rise in the currency's value is concerning because of its effect on business, which has trouble planning in a volatile environment, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said yesterday. There is mounting pressure on the Bank of Canada to reduce interest rates in order to cool the situation, but he suggested that's not the solution.
"It would be a mistake for anyone to think there is a quick fix to this, that were the Bank of Canada to do something that all of a sudden there would be a dramatic change in the value of the Canadian dollar," Mr. Flaherty told reporters after a speech in Toronto.
Royal Bank of Canada, the biggest international trader of Canadian dollars, raised its forecast yesterday, saying it expects the loonie to hit $1.08 before falling back below parity in the second half of next year.
"We had thought that if the U.S. economy slowed down, the global economy would probably slow down, and that doesn't seem to be panning out as much as people thought," said David Watt, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets.
"If the currency is, to an extent, decoupling from the U.S., then it makes sense to come out with a Canadian dollar forecast which pays less relevance to the U.S. economy."
Mr. Flaherty said that decoupling is a strong word, but there has been an increase in the differences between the Canadian and U.S. economies.
Both countries had surprisingly strong employment numbers yesterday, throwing many market players for a loop, with economists at TD Securities coining the term "Jobtoberfest."
But, while the U.S. created twice as many jobs as economists had forecast for the month of October, the Canadian economy churned out 63,000 jobs, roughly five times the number that had been expected. The jobless rate in Canada fell to a 33-year low of 5.8 per cent, from 5.9 per cent in September, and the employment rate for adult women hit record levels.
Currency traders had believed that, if the numbers were weak, the Bank of Canada would make a statement that would take some of the wind out of the dollar's sails. "Instead, we get another blowout, and the jobless rate at a 33-year-low, and the average wage of a permanent employee is up 4.2 per cent and accelerating," Mr. Watt said. "You're sitting in the market looking at this, and you're like, there is absolutely nothing they can do to stop this," he said.
"So, where do you think the Canadian dollar is going to stop? You flip a coin and make side bets about just how far it can go."
Economists at BMO Capital Markets said the dollar's "rocket ride isn't likely done yet as the economic data remain solid, the U.S. dollar continues to weaken and oil prices move toward $100 (U.S.).
"With the currency already hitting a modern-day high after breaking $1.0614 (U.S.), the next threshold could be $1.10 (U.S.)," they wrote in a research note.
The high dollar is effectively putting American goods on sale for Canadian consumers, who are taking advantage by cross-border shopping.
To counteract that, a number of Canadian retailers announced that they're adjusting prices because of the exchange rate. Rexall Drug Stores and Rexall Pharma Plus said yesterday that all books, magazines and Hallmark cards will be sold at the U.S. list price effective immediately. Sears Canada Inc. said it has reduced some of its regular prices on a permanent basis.
Mr. Flaherty, who has been calling on retailers to lower their prices, said those that he's met with "almost uniformly have recognized that it's in their own interest to reduce prices..."
But the Finance Minister also pointed out that the strong dollar makes imported machinery and equipment cheaper for Canadian manufacturers. He said the manufacturing sector, which has long been adjusting to the rising loonie, has been largely resilient, although auto and forest firms are struggling, largely because of weakness in the U.S. economy.
Mr. Flaherty's mini-budget this week said "the appreciation of the Canadian dollar has helped to boost the volume of [machinery and equipment] investment, which has increased 48 per cent since early 2002, mirroring the increase during the high-tech investment boom."
"The second benefit of the higher dollar is to reduce the price of imported consumer goods," the mini-budget added.
STRONG DOLLAR HAS UPS AND DOWNS
Brian Lipton, a 50-year-old financial planner from Bethesda, Md., figures he and his family have been to Canada between 10 and 15 times over the past decade to ski.
He's about to plan a couple of vacations for this winter, but says he'll be avoiding Whistler, B.C., and Mont Tremblant, Que., because of the soaring loonie and steep cross-border air fares. Instead, he'll head to Utah,
Montana or Colorado.
"I always consider Canada, but I'm not even going to look at Whistler this year because I know it's going to be 30 per cent more expensive," he said.
As the loonie rapidly jumps to record heights, workers in Canada's tourism industry are among those that might suffer, although they've been coping with the dollar's gradual rise for years.
"The fact of the matter is we've seen the numbers from the United States fall off over the course of the last three or four years," said Anthony Pollard, president of the Hotel Association of Canada. "They can't really go too much further."
Meanwhile, Caledon, Ont., resident Sue Armstrong and her two daughters, Carly, 12, and Samantha, 15, were shopping up a storm in Manhattan yesterday, picking up winter boots and jackets they might otherwise have bought in Canada.
"The girls and I are shopping for pretty much the whole four days," Ms. Armstrong said on her cellphone from Macy's department store.
She's among the legions of Canadians who are taking advantage of the strong dollar to pick up bargains south of the border.
"Car buying in the U.S. is becoming a popular topic for clients," said Matthew Smith, who works at Expatriate Tax Services in Toronto.
"As well, there is a big interest in Florida real estate with the dollar being low and the real estate market correction."
Canisius College, which is less than a 10-minute drive from the Peace Bridge border crossing, received 365 applications for the fall semester from Canadian graduates looking for a second degree. That's a 20-per-cent increase, said Margaret McCarthy, dean of school education and human services.
She believes much of that has to do with the Canadian dollar, which is making it cheaper for Canadian students to pay the $1,560 (U.S.) tuition fee for each course.
Tara Perkins in Toronto and
Barrie McKenna in Washington
Drug-busting loonie?
The loonie's muscle just may have done what U.S. government and law enforcement officials could not.
The strong dollar has "virtually stopped all exports to the United States of cannabis," said Marc Emery, the leader of the B.C. Marijuana Party of Canada.
Five years ago, one pound of Canadian marijuana would cost $1,600 (U.S.). Now it's $2,550 (U.S.) a pound when sold in the United States, he said.
The price has stayed strong because demand from Canadians has been increasing, he said. "Canadians are buying it because our economy is really, really good and there's a lot more money in the country," he said. "Otherwise the price would have plummeted, plummeted I tell you."
Tara Perkins
Long Island Mike
Senior Member
The now-stronger Canadian Dollar...
Everyone: I feel that Canadians-with their so-long weak dollar-are now finally benefitting from the stronger CDN Dollar on their trips into the US. It is interesting that only now that prices are starting to reflect this on Canadian goods compared to their US counterparts. The weak US Dollar makes Canada more expensive for US residents to go N but I wonder if the dollars will go back towards par-or will the CDN Dollar remain strong? There are so many variables affecting the economy in North America-like the surging price of oil.
I feel if the US goes to war with Iran and the supply lines from the Middle East are disrupted-oil will surge in price to levels never seen before-maybe making the 70s gas shortages pale in comparison. Our oil dependancy will come around to hurt us-and maybe wreck the economy in both countries in the process. We need oil alternatives sooner than later for this reason alone.
Let's hope that cooler heads prevail and a major conflict is averted.
LI MIKE
Everyone: I feel that Canadians-with their so-long weak dollar-are now finally benefitting from the stronger CDN Dollar on their trips into the US. It is interesting that only now that prices are starting to reflect this on Canadian goods compared to their US counterparts. The weak US Dollar makes Canada more expensive for US residents to go N but I wonder if the dollars will go back towards par-or will the CDN Dollar remain strong? There are so many variables affecting the economy in North America-like the surging price of oil.
I feel if the US goes to war with Iran and the supply lines from the Middle East are disrupted-oil will surge in price to levels never seen before-maybe making the 70s gas shortages pale in comparison. Our oil dependancy will come around to hurt us-and maybe wreck the economy in both countries in the process. We need oil alternatives sooner than later for this reason alone.
Let's hope that cooler heads prevail and a major conflict is averted.
LI MIKE
caltrane74
Senior Member
yes, yes, China is empire building. And the US is trying to do anything in it's power to stop them. Too bad for the United States, George bush is president. ( large debts fighting wars over oil with China and devaluing the US currency to spur the domestic ecomony will backfire eventually)
Gold and Oil will be de-linked from US dollars and switch to EURO's and the American Dollar is now the world's official garbage currency.
Gold and Oil will be de-linked from US dollars and switch to EURO's and the American Dollar is now the world's official garbage currency.
dt_toronto_geek
Superstar
What is the US doing to stop China's growth?
adma
Superstar
Saltpeter?
billonlogan
Active Member
In a news segment recently aired on Buffalo's WGRZ-TV, the station said Canadian shoppers have raised the region's sales tax revenue by five per cent.
Holy Shit!
careful crossing back at the border though
...
from cbcnews.com
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2007/11/05/bus-shoppers.html
After waiting five hours, Deason said she left the bus to ask a Canadian border guard about the delay. Deason said she was shocked by the response from the guard.
"He expressed very loudly, 'It'll take hours and hours and hours. Thank you for contributing to the U.S. economy, but I hope you got a good deal.'"
Some of the shoppers said they felt threatened.
"We weren't doing anything wrong. We have a fair trade agreement," said Deason.
"I felt targeted, in a way," said Canadian shopper Jessica Gorr.
Holy Shit!
careful crossing back at the border though
...from cbcnews.com
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2007/11/05/bus-shoppers.html
After waiting five hours, Deason said she left the bus to ask a Canadian border guard about the delay. Deason said she was shocked by the response from the guard.
"He expressed very loudly, 'It'll take hours and hours and hours. Thank you for contributing to the U.S. economy, but I hope you got a good deal.'"
Some of the shoppers said they felt threatened.
"We weren't doing anything wrong. We have a fair trade agreement," said Deason.
"I felt targeted, in a way," said Canadian shopper Jessica Gorr.
Prometheus The Supremo
►Member №41+⅜◄
i wonder what their thoughts on international charity are?
299 bloor call control.
Senior Member
...annnnnnnd $1.08
as for the women feeling "threatened", they were interviewed on CityNews last night... to be honest, they look like the type that were trying to be diva-ish and the border guards just put them back in their place. As horrible as the border crossing was this past weekend, I feel bad for them because they themselves are getting used to the unprecedented levels of people crossing the border. You should EXPECT hours and hours of waiting if you're heading over to the states. If you aren't willing to deal with it, DON'T GO. Also on Sunday, there was a Buffalo Bills game, so there were bus loads of people coming back from the game... and these ladies were complaining about why the football fans were being let through so quickly... well.. I don't think many of those football fans had hundreds and hundreds of dollars of purchases that needed to pass through customs...
as for the women feeling "threatened", they were interviewed on CityNews last night... to be honest, they look like the type that were trying to be diva-ish and the border guards just put them back in their place. As horrible as the border crossing was this past weekend, I feel bad for them because they themselves are getting used to the unprecedented levels of people crossing the border. You should EXPECT hours and hours of waiting if you're heading over to the states. If you aren't willing to deal with it, DON'T GO. Also on Sunday, there was a Buffalo Bills game, so there were bus loads of people coming back from the game... and these ladies were complaining about why the football fans were being let through so quickly... well.. I don't think many of those football fans had hundreds and hundreds of dollars of purchases that needed to pass through customs...
khris
Senior Member
Cross Border Shoppers Win Small Victory As Bridge Toll To Be Even With Americans
Tuesday November 6, 2007
CityNews.ca Staff
Canadians may not feel like they've had a lot of victories in the battle to get the Canadian dollar to reflect its own new strength over its U.S. counterpart, but they can at least celebrate one very small victory. And "small" is the word - the win is only worth 25 cents. But if you believe in principle, that's a fortune.
Last week, CityNews confronted Finance Minister Jim Flaherty over the cost of tolls at the border between the U.S. and Canada. The man who urged retailers to drop their prices to keep business in Canada had no explanation as to why Canadians at the Queenston-Lewiston Bridge were being forced to fork over $3.50 to get back into their own country, while Americans coming north only had to shell out $3.
He wouldn't commit to a timeline as to when it might be changed, but it appears that publicity helped get the wheels moving in Ottawa. As of November 15th, the tolls are deflating at the crossing point to $3.25. Aren't they still higher than the Americans? Not anymore. U.S. residents will now be charged the same amount in their own currency, a drop for us, an increase for them and a small, small victory in large war over your money.
Reps from the Niagara Falls Bridge Commission insist they heard the complaints of Canadians about how unfair the difference was, and even though it was only a quarter, it was the principle that mattered.
Still, it's not a complete victory. Those crossing at the Peace Bridge from Fort Erie into Buffalo will still have to pay the higher rate, although officials admit they plan to address that inequity when they meet in the middle of this month.
Source
Tuesday November 6, 2007
CityNews.ca Staff
Canadians may not feel like they've had a lot of victories in the battle to get the Canadian dollar to reflect its own new strength over its U.S. counterpart, but they can at least celebrate one very small victory. And "small" is the word - the win is only worth 25 cents. But if you believe in principle, that's a fortune.
Last week, CityNews confronted Finance Minister Jim Flaherty over the cost of tolls at the border between the U.S. and Canada. The man who urged retailers to drop their prices to keep business in Canada had no explanation as to why Canadians at the Queenston-Lewiston Bridge were being forced to fork over $3.50 to get back into their own country, while Americans coming north only had to shell out $3.
He wouldn't commit to a timeline as to when it might be changed, but it appears that publicity helped get the wheels moving in Ottawa. As of November 15th, the tolls are deflating at the crossing point to $3.25. Aren't they still higher than the Americans? Not anymore. U.S. residents will now be charged the same amount in their own currency, a drop for us, an increase for them and a small, small victory in large war over your money.
Reps from the Niagara Falls Bridge Commission insist they heard the complaints of Canadians about how unfair the difference was, and even though it was only a quarter, it was the principle that mattered.
Still, it's not a complete victory. Those crossing at the Peace Bridge from Fort Erie into Buffalo will still have to pay the higher rate, although officials admit they plan to address that inequity when they meet in the middle of this month.
Source
unimaginative2
Senior Member
I really don't think you should have to expect an epic wait at the border. I also don't think you should expect any kind of surly or even rude behaviour from customs guards. They're government employees and the first Canadians that tourists meet. They should behave in a friendly and professional way.
If we need to double or triple the number of border guards, I don't see why we shouldn't just do it.
These people, I'm guessing, are all smuggling goods home across the border, since you have no exemption if you spend less than 24 hours. That's what's so insane about our free trade agreement. Free trade for corporations when they're selling goods to one another, but no free trade for consumers who are getting gouged on one side of the border.
If we need to double or triple the number of border guards, I don't see why we shouldn't just do it.
These people, I'm guessing, are all smuggling goods home across the border, since you have no exemption if you spend less than 24 hours. That's what's so insane about our free trade agreement. Free trade for corporations when they're selling goods to one another, but no free trade for consumers who are getting gouged on one side of the border.
299 bloor call control.
Senior Member
There is free trade, the only thing you have to pay on most consumer items when you come back is the sales tax. Most items are duty-free.
As for the border guard numbers... I expect it costs a lot and takes a long time to hire and train new ones... if the only reason why we need more is to satisfy consumers heading south of the border to spend spend spend to no benefit to the Canadian economy, I say don't do it. The dollar is so volatile right now we have no idea where it's going to go... if it sinks back to the 95-cent range, as some have predicted, cross-border shopping will decrease... and then we'll have too many guards. Or suppliers and retailers will finally lower their prices, again, cross-border shopping will decrease, too many guards.
The cross-border phenomenon is a knee-jerk reaction after the dollar reached parity. I can understand people wanting to go over there to make their big ticket purchases... but a bunch of divas on a tour bus to go shopping? You're really not saving that much, honey. I think it's more likely it's their first time ever out of the country and they thought it'd be like driving to Yorkdale.
As for the border guard numbers... I expect it costs a lot and takes a long time to hire and train new ones... if the only reason why we need more is to satisfy consumers heading south of the border to spend spend spend to no benefit to the Canadian economy, I say don't do it. The dollar is so volatile right now we have no idea where it's going to go... if it sinks back to the 95-cent range, as some have predicted, cross-border shopping will decrease... and then we'll have too many guards. Or suppliers and retailers will finally lower their prices, again, cross-border shopping will decrease, too many guards.
The cross-border phenomenon is a knee-jerk reaction after the dollar reached parity. I can understand people wanting to go over there to make their big ticket purchases... but a bunch of divas on a tour bus to go shopping? You're really not saving that much, honey. I think it's more likely it's their first time ever out of the country and they thought it'd be like driving to Yorkdale.
299 bloor call control.
Senior Member
Where's my deal bitch?
dt_toronto_geek
Superstar
The dollar closes slightly short of $1.09. Crazy times.
poppajojo
Active Member
unreal... it's at 1.098 now, pretty much 1.10. Warren Buffett said he believes the Canadian dollar will remain above and stronger than the USD for 5 years, completely different from what everyone else is saying right now...