[BurlOak]

While the support percentage is subject to debate...

The percentage is very plastic. It could theoretically very easily be:
"Do you support any one subway expansion that you feel is justified somewhere?" = greater than 50% support.
"Do you support specifically, the DRL? the SSE? the ___?" = under than 50% support.
If done as an Ontario-wide poll. Everyone has an opinion & a favourite and will often not support other subways as a result. Not everyone agrees which subway is justified.

... I do agree for the "lost the battle" phrase. I think what denfromoakvillemilton is really saying with this phrase is that by forging ahead with DRL-South and DRL-North -- we have little opportunity to change the Scarborough subway result. While not triple-level funded yet -- part of DRL is already funded by some levels of government, so the momentum is incredibly forward at the moment almost unlike any time in forever.

The DRL planning is now occuring at now-incredible rapidity (to the point where it looks all but certain North will begin building right after South).

All of the three political parties appear to be strongly behind DRL (even Ford) and Federal is already itching to fund DRL.

If we want to preserve that journey, it's getting increasingly difficult to change the Scarborough subway plan.

I'm not happy with it, but if that what it takes for DRL South/North to be built relatively quickly (Toronto continuing condo boom has nearly completely doomed the political ability to easily cancel both North/South DRL fully) -- for DRL it's going to be a boobytrap & mutual assured destriction to yank SSE.

So I agree, I feel we lost the opportunity to change the Scarborough subway (except to to improve the plan such as adding back stations) if we want to avoid sabotaging the full good DRL momentum.

To borrow a phrase: IT'S A TRAP!

The DRL may not be as sure of a thing as people think.
6 years ago, when Council voted to kill the Rob Ford compromise plan (combined SRT and ECLRT), it looked like we were going back to the on-street LRT plan for Don Mills to Pape Station.
It was only the Fords push for subways that got this, and service to STC, changed to subway.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

Absolutely it's still 99% democratic support for the "subway". Which meant a proper subway or at a minimum do better than Transfer City. When Council strips the SEE down to one stop, then certainly very few residents are happy with the line in its current form. Residents are fed up with the whole ordeal with the divided council and worse those voting the hospital stop out in hopes to push the transfer LRT plan back in. Doug had this ball tee'd up for him with the one stop and will see massive support here once again,adding the stops and moving on. Subway on the RT corridor or seamless LRT from the Crosstown would have been easily supported if we went back 7 years. Both had there chances and the LRT was supported by Rob. If its one stop its not because Scarborough or outside Politicians who tried to help connect the Centre better chose this option, they just didn't want certain "Downtown" councils transfer option and all other options were road blocked with this hardened agenda to dictate. Tory has done extremely well to stick handle and atleast keep the subway alive to hand off to the Province and create a more detailed network.

You're mixing "subway" with no more Kennedy transfer. I don't think people want that. It's the technology many people, even in Scarborough debate, along with the design.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

I'd say the Scarborough Subway decision is far from a lock since we haven't yet received the updated cost - one Tory doesn't want released until after the election.

If the new estimate is $5 billion - $6 billion, are all levels of government going to be all-in?

That's a good question. What are the chances that the likely NDP government will be willing to throw even more money at this project? The PCs or Liberals certainly would be, but their electoral fortunes are slipping by the day.

If the Province doesn't pony up more money, this project is likely DOA. The City can't add more debt to fund the SSE, and the Trudeau Liberals probably aren't too ecstatic to fund it either.

This project was approved in 2013 and it still isn't under construction. That's pathetic and sad.

 

[JSF-1]

Don't forget the EELRT is also included in this project and the SSE has eaten all of its funding, so were not just looking for another potential Billion for the SSE but also about another $1.6 Billion for the EELRT.

 

[Rainforest]

An NDP government is extremely unlikely, because of the geography of their support combined with our first-past-the-post system. NDP has very high support in a few select ridings (much more than they need to secure the seat), and no chance of winning the majority of other ridings.

In the event NDP wins, or the Liberals remain in power, the provincial government will honor its commitment (in fixed dollars) to fund a part of SSE, but will not volunteer any more funds. The city will have to cover any difference between the total cost and the amount of provincial and federal contributions. And, it will.

Not sure what John Tory is hiding; but I suspect he just wants to avoid making specific promises and prefers to retain the option of shifting the subway into the rail corridor. Any viable solution for connection between Kennedy and STC, will be either underground or in the rail corridor. The city brass prefers underground because it allows the SRT to operate while the subway is getting build. But if they feel they no longer can afford the underground option, that means they will have to accept the rail corridor option. If so, there is no reason not to build the subway there, given that the cost will be only marginally higher than for LRT with transfer.

If the Conservatives win .. well we know that Doug is no friend of public transit, but he can't afford not to build anything at all. He might take over the whole subway extension, and add one or two inline stops. Those two stops will not cost him too much, but will give him some bragging rights.

 

[syn]

The DRL may not be as sure of a thing as people think.
6 years ago, when Council voted to kill the Rob Ford compromise plan (combined SRT and ECLRT), it looked like we were going back to the on-street LRT plan for Don Mills to Pape Station.
It was only the Fords push for subways that got this, and service to STC, changed to subway.

It wasn't a compromise plan as it ate funding for all other projects - on top of that Ford's estimate was likely billions off the real thing, just as all of his other numbers routinely were.

 

[syn]

That's a good question. What are the chances that the likely NDP government will be willing to throw even more money at this project? The PCs or Liberals certainly would be, but their electoral fortunes are slipping by the day.

If the Province doesn't pony up more money, this project is likely DOA. The City can't add more debt to fund the SSE, and the Trudeau Liberals probably aren't too ecstatic to fund it either.

This project was approved in 2013 and it still isn't under construction. That's pathetic and sad.

I'm not sure the Liberals would be that willing, to be perfectly honest. I think we can even ask if Tory would be willing to push forward - if he truly wants to step down after two terms, changing the plan won't have any political cost for him - and it'll be early enough in his term to change course and make sure it's in progress before he leaves.

Everything is setup perfectly for all candidates to claim they support the project (or support whatever the city chooses), which gives them an easy out if the cost jumps again substantially, as expected.

 

[Rainforest]

The easy out is to build the subway in the rail corridor. I strongly suspect that's the Plan B.

The nature of the technology (fully grade separated) makes the cost similar for a subway or a light rail line in that corridor. That's not a street-median LRT that is typically 3x to 4x cheaper than a subway of the same length.

The subway would involve some extra costs, in particular the rebuild of the Kennedy station, plus the approach to STC likely will be underground instead of on the guideway. Those costs won't be high enough to discourage building the subway.

 

[Hopkins123]

An NDP government is extremely unlikely, because of the geography of their support combined with our first-past-the-post system. NDP has very high support in a few select ridings (much more than they need to secure the seat), and no chance of winning the majority of other ridings.

In the event NDP wins, or the Liberals remain in power, the provincial government will honor its commitment (in fixed dollars) to fund a part of SSE, but will not volunteer any more funds. The city will have to cover any difference between the total cost and the amount of provincial and federal contributions. And, it will.

Not sure what John Tory is hiding; but I suspect he just wants to avoid making specific promises and prefers to retain the option of shifting the subway into the rail corridor. Any viable solution for connection between Kennedy and STC, will be either underground or in the rail corridor. The city brass prefers underground because it allows the SRT to operate while the subway is getting build. But if they feel they no longer can afford the underground option, that means they will have to accept the rail corridor option. If so, there is no reason not to build the subway there, given that the cost will be only marginally higher than for LRT with transfer.

If the Conservatives win .. well we know that Doug is no friend of public transit, but he can't afford not to build anything at all. He might take over the whole subway extension, and add one or two inline stops. Those two stops will not cost him too much, but will give him some bragging rights.

Thank goodness someone other than me is dealing with reality here. Geographically the NDP cannot win. And their chances of winning over Scarborough with their historical anti-SSE stance is even less probable.

Meanwhile, a subway to Scarborough Centre has been a long standing ideological mission for the PCs.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Thank goodness someone other than me is dealing with reality here. Geographically the NDP cannot win.

Are you really sure you should be speaking in absolutes here? The NDP vote is less efficient sure, but it’s madness to claim that they cannot win.

 

[Hopkins123]

Are you really sure you should be speaking in absolutes here? The NDP vote is less efficient sure, but it’s madness to claim that they cannot win.

You're right, nothing's certain till election day. But still, this is the NDP's problem: http://www.electionprediction.org/2018_on/r_9.php;

Unless they leapfrog the Liberals in throughout Peel Region, how are they even in the game?

 

[BurlOak]

You're mixing "subway" with no more Kennedy transfer. I don't think people want that. It's the technology many people, even in Scarborough debate, along wih the design.

People do not understand the full issues. This is likely their thought process:

• Subway = rapid, continuous (based on existing subway network).
• LRT = slower, transfers (based on existing SRT & Spadina, St. Clair, Harbourfront LRT).

They really don't care about the technology, but you have to clearly show how an LRT would not fit the stereotype. Remember, nobody had a problem with the Ford LRT compromise plan of connecting the SRT to Eglinton LRT.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

You're right, nothing's certain till election day. But still, this is the NDP's problem: http://www.electionprediction.org/2018_on/r_9.php;

Unless they leapfrog the Liberals in throughout Peel Region, how are they even in the game?

An NDP government is extremely unlikely, because of the geography of their support combined with our first-past-the-post system. NDP has very high support in a few select ridings (much more than they need to secure the seat), and no chance of winning the majority of other ridings.

In the event NDP wins, or the Liberals remain in power, the provincial government will honor its commitment (in fixed dollars) to fund a part of SSE, but will not volunteer any more funds. The city will have to cover any difference between the total cost and the amount of provincial and federal contributions. And, it will.

Not sure what John Tory is hiding; but I suspect he just wants to avoid making specific promises and prefers to retain the option of shifting the subway into the rail corridor. Any viable solution for connection between Kennedy and STC, will be either underground or in the rail corridor. The city brass prefers underground because it allows the SRT to operate while the subway is getting build. But if they feel they no longer can afford the underground option, that means they will have to accept the rail corridor option. If so, there is no reason not to build the subway there, given that the cost will be only marginally higher than for LRT with transfer.

If the Conservatives win .. well we know that Doug is no friend of public transit, but he can't afford not to build anything at all. He might take over the whole subway extension, and add one or two inline stops. Those two stops will not cost him too much, but will give him some bragging rights.

This is not accurate as of last night. the NDP are tied with the Tories. Peel has made it's self irrelevant by sending corrupt MPPs to provincial parliament any chance they they get. We just saw it again with the 407 scandal and the PCs. Elections are decided in York, Toronto and Halton these days.

https://www.thestar.com/news/queens...doug-ford-in-ontario-election-poll-shows.html

 

[Streety McCarface]

The LRT idea over the SRT replacement is the stupid part. I support the subway for future transit needs, yes, but I don't support the LRT because it solves nothing, in fact, makes things more difficult for commuters and doesn't increase the capacity of the system. If one believes that the LRT is the best because it's the fiscal choice, that's wrong. The LRT does not or will not:
-Keep the SRT open during construction
-Increase capacity
-Increase speeds
-Remove the transfer
-Lead to development along the corridor (Nothing will, not even a subway along that corridor)
-Save money (Both in operational costs and construction costs)
What it does do:
-Expensively replaces all the infrastructure that's already there. All that infrastructure works just fine, it's the vehicles that are falling apart
-Cost more than an SRT replacement with new trains (600 million vs up to 2 billion)
-Lowers platform height, increasing dwell times
-Lowers maximum capacity if interlined with the Eglinton Crosstown
-Requires an operator
Someone, please tell me why Politicians support that over an SRT replacement. I can understand a subway extension even if it costs a lot because it has certain benefits to it (reduction of transfers, better connectivity, express service on the Stouffville Sub (from triple and quadruple tracking)). I can't support an LRT that will cost significantly more than something that will do the same thing. I believe that's worse transit planning than the subway.

 

[JSF-1]

^Well to be honest those are all good points except the last one since something tells me if we replacing the SRT with automated vehicles would be an uphill battle like it was when the line was first created. Also the Subway requires an Operator as well.