[OneCity]

Your alternative fact list about me is entirely made up. If you need to make this about me to deflect from the fact that there's virtually nothing in this debate that lends validity to the SSE, then go for it.


Cost of Scarborough subway extension rises to $3.35 billion as number of new riders fall
"The overall updated cost is a $150 million increase over the earlier $3.2 billion estimate, and doesn’t include the cost of financing.

The new estimate includes significant changes to a planned bus terminal at a new Scarborough Town Centre station which staff said requires 34 bus bays — the largest bus terminal in the entire TTC network.

However, staff said in the report that because the new $3.35 billion estimate is still based on very little design work being completed at this point, the range of accuracy for that estimate is massive. The estimate, staff said, could be off by up to 50 per cent — putting the high-end estimate at $5.02 billion."









Has the Scarborough subway already gone over its available funding?
"The $3.35 billion estimate covers construction of the subway tunnel, new station, associated infrastructure, including a new bus terminal on Triton Rd. at the Scarborough Town Centre, and the decommissioning of the existing Scarborough RT.

The report outlines several additional costs that are not included in that base number.

The additional costs include $14 million for platform edge doors that line up with subway doors at the station — a safety feature that has not been implemented elsewhere in the system but council requested the TTC consider as part of future expansions.

There is also an estimated $11 million for public realm improvements like wider sidewalks, plazas and street furniture.

According to consultants hired by the city to review cost estimates, the city should also establish a reserve in case of changes to the scope of the project. While the city staff report said the TTC believes that $100 million is adequate for that reserve, the consultants recommended that fund be twice as much.

Staff said the city must also build in a contingency for construction cost overruns and costs related to construction schedule delays — estimated, at what staff said are upset limits, of $115 million and $190 million respectively.

The base cost also does not include an estimated $40 million needed for the construction financing model recommended by staff or an additional $15 million required for project advisory fees.

Those additional costs, when you consider the higher-end estimates, total $585 million, putting the cost of the subway at $3.93 billion — leaving the subway $370 million short on funding."

...

"The new estimate includes significant changes to a planned bus terminal at a new Scarborough Town Centre station which staff said requires 34 bus bays — the largest bus terminal in the entire TTC network.

However, staff said in the report that because the new $3.35 billion estimate is still based on very little design work being completed at this point, the range of accuracy for that estimate is massive. The estimate, staff said, could be off by up to 50 per cent — putting the high-end estimate at $5.02 billion."







As Scarborough subway price rises, Mayor John Tory looks for cost-saving measures

"Earlier, Coun. Joe Mihevc told CBC Radio's Metro Morning he's worried the city has written a blank cheque for the 6.5-kilometre subway extension, and that he expects the cost to blow past the current price tag and go as high as $5 billion.

"It is still going way, way beyond expectations," he said.

Mihevc, who supported an earlier version of the subway that had three stops, said he expects city council to reluctantly OK the new recommendations for the subway, including using the McCowan alignment.

"We have to find a way to make peace with it at some point," he said.

"And that's perhaps the tragedy of our time."








Globe editorial: The Scarborough subway, a boondoggle on rails

"This week, it was revealed that the cost of the proposed one-stop Scarborough subway continues to grow. On Tuesday, a city staff report pegged the estimated cost at $3.35-billion, up from $2-billion last year. The report says the final price tag could end up as much as 50 per cent higher. So we may be looking at a $5-billion, one-stop subway.

The staff report upping the price also reduced the line's low projected ridership; it expects to attract just 2,300 new riders a day.

The Scarborough subway is illogical transit policy. Its only logic is political. Politicians, municipal and provincial, get to tell voters in Scarborough that they're getting a subway – even though most of Scarborough is far from the line and its solitary station, the cost of which is impoverishing transit elsewhere."



This will likey be, at least, a $5 billion+ subway line.

Neither the anti SSE Left media or yourself use the worst case numbers for any other plan?

Fear mongering the worst case to fit their agenda. I would completely understand if this was a standard reporting style for all projects at this stage.

 

[sixrings]

The globe and mail is not left media.

When the bill comes in fear mongering should be redefined as a warning because there will be only facts

 

[pman]

Neither the anti SSE Left media or yourself use the worst case numbers for any other plan?

Fear mongering the worst case to fit their agenda. I would completely understand if this was a standard reporting style for all projects at this stage.

For the love of God, could you for once refrain from the conspiracy theories and ad hominem arguments? People who question the wisdom of SSE don’t do it because they’re evil, anti-Scarborough leftists. They have substantive, data-driven objections. Reasonable people can disagree on conclusions, though we don’t get to manufacture our own facts (unless we’re Toronto Councillors), so could you please try reason for a change? This hysterical paranoia only makes you look ridiculous and allows your opponents to dismiss your advocacy. If you want to rebut SSE’s opponents, stick to facts and logic.

 

[BurlOak]

For the love of God, could you for once refrain from the conspiracy theories and ad hominem arguments? People who question the wisdom of SSE don’t do it because they’re evil, anti-Scarborough leftists. They have substantive, data-driven objections. Reasonable people can disagree on conclusions, though we don’t get to manufacture our own facts (unless we’re Toronto Councillors), so could you please try reason for a change? This hysterical paranoia only makes you look ridiculous and allows your opponents to dismiss your advocacy. If you want to rebut SSE’s opponents, stick to facts and logic.

OneCity has agreed that there are concerns about the SSE.
It is the fact that instead of trying to address and solve them, the "conspiracy" only tries to resurrect the transfer LRT.

 

[OneCity]

For the love of God, could you for once refrain from the conspiracy theories and ad hominem arguments? People who question the wisdom of SSE don’t do it because they’re evil, anti-Scarborough leftists. They have substantive, data-driven objections. Reasonable people can disagree on conclusions, though we don’t get to manufacture our own facts (unless we’re Toronto Councillors), so could you please try reason for a change? This hysterical paranoia only makes you look ridiculous and allows your opponents to dismiss your advocacy. If you want to rebut SSE’s opponents, stick to facts and logic.

Here we go. Such BS. Ive never once had an issue with people disagreeing with the one stop subway. I don't agree with the current plan myself if you actually had read. But circumstance to move forward and the alternatives provided leave it is a reasonably viable option. My previous point that you took offense to was that we are seeing inflated numbers that aernt being used equally to discuss other plans and the amount of attack is not balanced or promoting healthy dialogue to even move forward. Conspiracy or just reality?

The issue is not with one stop subway opposition its with those that are specifically stuck on Millers rejected transfer LRT plan as that are just as problematic as the Keesmat-Tory one stop right now. Remember residents are not UT where we have all kinds of idea to pass around and can only choose between the plans offered. The debate of a one-stop vs. transfer LRT is a complete disservice to Scarborough given the decades of neglect, the debacle of the RT, what we have recently built elsewhere to equal and lesser areas, and the stage we are in this drawn out debate where there is a need to clearly do better. At the same time we need to move on and the better connection to SCC is HUGE. And though I don't personally support the current plan for this specific line, we certainly need to move on for the sake of the entire City. Inflation, political climate and further wasted time and money on studies will gain us little. The Smartrack, Eglinton East and Subway is a very good package if Tory wins and it moves forward, although in the midst of this stupid debate Ford is the only one likely to benefit and will directly certainly take advantage of this ridiculous 1 stop vs. transfer LRT debate. As if this shouldn't have been obvious to those stuck in the mud on Millers plan? Millers plan had its day (decades), and aside from the Left media keeping it alive in the hearts of outsiders, in reality its beyond dead and no chance it ever gets built. Its a complete waste of time at this stage, and if anything has hindered opportunity to find alternatives.

For some reason you don't see the direct link to politics in the media and unbalanced reporting. I find that amazing, but wont belittle you for it as it seems you strongly believe otherwise. Youll see once again how useless this push for transfer LRT is come election time. Modifying the one stop subway is great if we can do it in a timely manner but there is no good outcome for you or me in which the subway is overturned for Millers plan. And in reality it has zero chance on its own merits. Miller plan has already been proven to not be the best value transfer plan, not the best value LRT plan, and the people have already over tuned it.

Facts and logic are always appreciated, being accused of things that you never implied and having a debate dumbed down to two poor plans. Not so much.

 

[syn]

OneCity has agreed that there are concerns about the SSE.
It is the fact that instead of trying to address and solve them, the "conspiracy" only tries to resurrect the transfer LRT.

This thread is called Debate on the merits of the Scarborough Subway Extension.

There is a separate thread to discuss the project and it's implementation. I believe coffey1 is aware of that. You can find it here:

http://urbantoronto.ca/forum/thread...nt-city-of-toronto-design-phase.2975/page-878

I was told the $5 billion cost/50% margin for error was incorrect, and that I made it up. Several sources have been posted, all reputable, that cite the same cost and the same source for that number - city staff.


For all the talk about media bias, this is something that the media hasn't addressed all that often. Generally speaking the cost is still cited at $3.35 billion, even though $5 billion is currently a far more reasonable projection.

Common sense would dictate that's the real cost we're dealing with. When's the last transit project that came in under budget, based on early planning numbers? Given the additional difficulty with tunneling in this area and factors not yet considered, $5 billion is going to be the new floor sooner rather than later.

This is why the idea of adding additional stations is impractical from a financial perspective. Adding another $1 billion - $2 billion to the budget (at the very least) for a line that isn't going to come close to justifying it's existence makes absolutely no sense.

If the Crosstown East LRT extension is completed, Scarborough residents will be able to get directly to the Yonge Line without making a transfer. It's a transfer free solution that's already on the table by Tory and would offer far more transit access within Scarborough. That's what the city should make a priority as far as Scarborough transit is concerned.

Finally, I believe all of us have contributed ideas to keep the cost of the subway down.

 

[WislaHD]

@OneCity , if costs spirled out of control into the $10 billion mark (let's say a hypothetical scenario where Lawrence East was added back, and then it turned out to be technically infeasible to construct, then it became politically impossible to cancel the Lawrence East stop), would Scarborough Subway to STC still be an investment worth pursuing?

 

[Hopkins123]

That's the thought. Is it not possible to cross the Highland Creek on a bridge (instead of way below in a deep tunnel), and build a shallow station 100 m south of Lawrence to make room for the tracks to rise to the ground level before the bridge?

The Finch station of the Yonge line isn't actually straight at Finch, it is shifted north quite a bit.

Did you totally miss my post on Page 78 that proposes said solution?...

To further my point, I quickly drew up this:

Can someone explain why this couldn't work?

Similar to what @BurlOak has recently posted, you start the portal 200m south of the Lawrence McCowan intersection and have the elevated station right beside the hospital grounds. Then with the utilities relocated in the Gatineau hydro corridor, you start the decent back to underground operations by St Andrews Rd. I'm not convinced that this couldn't be implemented somehow, granting us the most glaring omission from the current plan.

 

[syn]

Never mind that Lawrence East would be one of the most challenging underground stations on the network, due the geography in the area. $2 Billion is obviously hyperbolic nonsense, but given the concerns raised by TTC, Lawrence East would’ve been an unusually challenging and costly station to build.

Please note I wrote 'adding stops' - I was referring to more than one, as in the original 3-stop plan.

Even if you want to ignore the $5 billion number, this has went from a $3.35 billion (may be off on this number) three stop extension, to a $3.2 billion cost for one stop and a 17 stop Crosstown East extension, to $3.35 billion for just one stop. They're still in the planning phases and the costs are skyrocketing. For the one stop alone, that's $2 billion to $3.35 billion, a 67% increase and we're still in the preliminary planning stages.

Based on the constantly escalating numbers from City Hall, I don't think $2 billion is hyperbolic at all.

 

[BurlOak]

Please note I wrote 'adding stops' - I was referring to more than one, as in the original 3-stop plan.

Even if you want to ignore the $5 billion number, this has went from a $3.35 billion (may be off on this number) three stop extension, to a $3.2 billion cost for one stop and a 17 stop Crosstown East extension, to $3.35 billion for just one stop. They're still in the planning phases and the costs are skyrocketing. For the one stop alone, that's $2 billion to $3.35 billion, a 67% increase and we're still in the preliminary planning stages.

Based on the constantly escalating numbers from City Hall, I don't think $2 billion is hyperbolic at all.

This would require 3.5% grades* south of Lawrence to go from the portal to elevated in the short 200m distance**. There then needs to be a vertical curve transition from 3.5% to horizontal for the station, and then another transition to 3.5% down grade to make it underground before St. Andrews. All this time, the terrain is dropping down as you head north (i.e. more of the flood plain is to the north) making it even harder to get underground before St. Andrews.
It's because of this terrain that I think you can still be underground at Lawrence and have a new subway with McCowan on top that essentially spans the Highland creek at a higher elevation (instead of the road and subway dropping to cross the valley on a short bridge, have them cross at a higher elevation).
Overall, I agree with your idea that station options for a low level station was not properly considered.

* - The Murray plan of using the SRT corridor had these grades and TTC really didn't like it.
** - It would also block off all access to the strip mall from McCowan. Then entrances would have to be change to Perivale and Lawrence only.

 

[BurlOak]

The station would be roughly from the south edge of Lawrence towards the existing hospital entrance. The subway would run inside the bridge, meaning that the bridge depth would be 4.5 to 5m (due to the subway height inside). This 4.5m depth bridge can easily span 80m (while the existing bridge has a 30m span). The new bridge would have similar soffit elevation to the current bridge, with the south abutment about 10m or 15m south of existing, and the north abutment about 30m to 40m north of the existing. This extra span should allow passage of the Regional storm under the bridge.

The new hospital entrance from McCowan would be elevated (or perched) and about 15m to 20m south of the existing. I see a small utility building (red brick) that would have to be relocated. Here's how the bridge would look. Access to the centre plaform (or farside platform) would be through a "mezzanine" underneath the platform.

 

[Rainforest]

Did you totally miss my post on Page 78 that proposes said solution?...



Similar to what @BurlOak has recently posted, you start the portal 200m south of the Lawrence McCowan intersection and have the elevated station right beside the hospital grounds. Then with the utilities relocated in the Gatineau hydro corridor, you start the decent back to underground operations by St Andrews Rd. I'm not convinced that this couldn't be implemented somehow, granting us the most glaring omission from the current plan.

I don't mind at all. There are options that should be at least explored.

 

[Rainforest]

Your alternative fact list about me is entirely made up.

Entirely based on your own posts.

If you need to make this about me to deflect from the fact that there's virtually nothing in this debate that lends validity to the SSE, then go for it.

My goal is to counter your constant exaggerations, as well as your occasional direct lies.

Cost of Scarborough subway extension rises to $3.35 billion as number of new riders fall
"The overall updated cost is a $150 million increase over the earlier $3.2 billion estimate, and doesn’t include the cost of financing.

I'm not going to copy all your links. Give me one that says additional stops are forecast to cost $2 billion.

 

[OneCity]

@OneCity , if costs spirled out of control into the $10 billion mark (let's say a hypothetical scenario where Lawrence East was added back, and then it turned out to be technically infeasible to construct, then it became politically impossible to cancel the Lawrence East stop), would Scarborough Subway to STC still be an investment worth pursuing?

Hypothetically will the transfer LRT be spirilled to $9 Billion in this alter reality scenario you want me to take part in? Not sure what unrealistic hypothetical posts are meant to prove?

Listen I would honestly love to go back to a connected LRT to Crosstown or RT corridor subway that added stops. Imo both plans were solid options but unfortunately both already rejected. I know the 1 stop on the McCowan corridor is not efficient financially but in reality I just really don't see the serious savings people believe going back will achieve after cancelletion/ tendering delays, a full design, inflation and further politicking when the current subway can achieve to basically the same if not better and we can avoid delays and move on.

The time for change was last election. We need to move forward.

To me the real question is how many elections and bi elections are required for the transfer boosters to realize they needed to do better? Surely Doug and John appreciate the blatant disregard with zero capacity to compromise. If there was still a small window to backtrack to a compromise this ongoing time wasting promotion of the old rejected transfer line will inevitably bring that to an end.

 

[44 North]

Please note I wrote 'adding stops' - I was referring to more than one, as in the original 3-stop plan.

Even if you want to ignore the $5 billion number, this has went from a $3.35 billion (may be off on this number) three stop extension, to a $3.2 billion cost for one stop and a 17 stop Crosstown East extension, to $3.35 billion for just one stop. They're still in the planning phases and the costs are skyrocketing. For the one stop alone, that's $2 billion to $3.35 billion, a 67% increase and we're still in the preliminary planning stages.

Based on the constantly escalating numbers from City Hall, I don't think $2 billion is hyperbolic at all.

I'd like to see some outside firm look at this, not hired by the City/TTC. Because there really seems something conspiratorial with the present SSE situation. They've actually convinced people that Scarb has some unique topography/geology/hydrology which makes subway-building considerably more expensive and complicated than elsewhere in TO? Gimme a break.

Excluding our subway bridges and focusing on underground infrastructure here. We just finished tunneling through swampland alongside Black Ck, in its floodplain, adjacent to a sizable tributary - and built a station there (407). We built York Mills stn below the West Don, literally with the river flowing overtop the station box. Then there's the shortlived Eglinton-Scarboro Subway; Metrolinx didn't mention anything about the complexity of tunneling below the enormous Don Valley nor extreme depths for the nearby station at Don Mills. It was a nonissue. Not to mention there's several other creeks and buried rivers we pass over/under/adjacent to for our subway system.

If we can do these things, I think the tiny Bendale and Dorset branches of West Highland Ck shouldn't be an issue at all. The geology, topography, and hydrology aren't exactly different than elsewhere. SSE should have stations at Eglinton/Danforth and McCowan/Lawrence E done not all that different than what we've built in the past. No 10-storey depth, nor extremely unreasonable costs. If it does involve a bridge structure, let's see it presented. Don't hide the option entirely.

The only excuse I can glean from the weirdness of SSE's high cost and exclusion of inline stations is that they're due to the early decision to go with a single bore, and that the "express" option was unfairly highlighted as best. Then the EA was completed with these questionable decisions in mind. But that's not a good excuse. I think it's clear we need to go back to the drawing board. Keep the same funds, heck even add to it. But come to a conclusion that isn't ludicrous.