[syn]

You mentioned yourself that the original $2 billion estimate was not properly researched, and yet you want to use it as the base to count the subsequent increase.

The $4.3 billion estimate was a result of a proper study. There is no guarantee it won't grow at all, it could grow by 10% or 20%, but not by 63%.

Furthermore, quite obviously nobody will build the extension to Sheppard if its cost somehow escalates that much. In that case, at most they will add back the Lawrence East station but still terminate the line at STC.

So, you are bundling together all worst-case scenarios, to make the subway project look as expensive as possible:
- Exaggerated cost escalations
- Absolutely no steps taken to reduce the construction costs (possible steps are discussed in this thread and elsewhere)
- And yet, the subway goes all the way to Sheppard

Each of those isn't very likely to happen, but all together are absolutely impossible.

The cost went from $2 billion to $2.9 billion to $3.2 billion to $3.35 billion. The final two increases happened over a 6-8 month period. The current estimate by city staff confirms the final cost could be 50% higher as most of the design work hasn't been done.

Are you not seeing a pattern here?

Do you seriously expect the cost to decrease?? When's the last time that happened?

The $4.3 billion cost was 'accurate' 17 months ago, and like the one stop line not based on any real design work done. Expecting that to be anywhere near the final cost (assuming they proceeded) is incredibly naive.

You keep trying to make this about me, but all of these numbers, including the 50% cost increase are directly from the city.

My estimates for added stations aren't unreasonable at all.

Where do you think they're going to save money?

Why do you think the city would add a 50% cost increase if it wasn't a legitimate possibility?

 

[Rainforest]

The cost went from $2 billion to $2.9 billion to $3.2 billion to $3.35 billion. The final two increases happened over a 6-8 month period. The current estimate by city staff confirms the final cost could be 50% higher as most of the design work hasn't been done.

Are you not seeing a pattern here?

Do you seriously expect the cost to decrease?? When's the last time that happened?

The $4.3 billion cost was 'accurate' 17 months ago, and like the one stop line not based on any real design work done. Expecting that to be anywhere near the final cost (assuming they proceeded) is incredibly naive.

You keep trying to make this about me, but all of these numbers, including the 50% cost increase are directly from the city.

My estimates for added stations aren't unreasonable at all.

Where do you think they're going to save money?

Why do you think the city would add a 50% cost increase if it wasn't a legitimate possibility?

I have no desire to make it "about you", but when you are making inaccurate statements, I have no other choice but to counter them.

The city engineers said that the cost "could be" 50% higher; that doesn't necessarily mean "will be". They want to cover their bases and that's pretty reasonable on their part. Even their most pessimistic estimates never came to the $7 billion figure.

The extension will not cost $7 billion because:

a) If they go back to the 3-stop plan, it will likely grow somewhat from $4.3 billion but it won't grow by 50%.

b) They might save some, if they change the design (no deep bore).

c) Failing both (a) and (b), they will not include the extension to Sheppard. If they just add the Lawrence East station, then obviously it can't cost $2 billion to add.

 

[syn]

I have no desire to make it "about you", but when you are making inaccurate statements, I have no other choice but to counter them.

The city engineers said that the cost "could be" 50% higher; that doesn't necessarily mean "will be". They want to cover their bases and that's pretty reasonable on their part. Even their most pessimistic estimates never came to the $7 billion figure.

The extension will not cost $7 billion because:

a) If they go back to the 3-stop plan, it will likely grow somewhat from $4.3 billion but it won't grow by 50%.

b) They might save some, if they change the design (no deep bore).

c) Failing both (a) and (b), they will not include the extension to Sheppard. If they just add the Lawrence East station, then obviously it can't cost $2 billion to add.

The last estimate they gave for a three stop subway was 17 months ago - the same estimate they gave at the time for a 1 stop subway has already grown over 15% (2.9 -> 3.35), with a higher price very, very likely. City staff made it clear $3.35 billion isn't a final cost - it's an estimate based on a lot of work still not completed. It doesn't include, among other things, financing, finished design work or construction over-runs, which virtually always occur.

Ask yourself this - is it logical that a 3 stop extension couldn't grow by potentially 50% even though 1 stop could, with both being at the same planning stages and with a three stop plan having even greater complexity?

There's nothing far-fetched about any of these suggestions.

 

[OneCity]

The last estimate they gave for a three stop subway was 17 months ago - the same estimate they gave at the time for a 1 stop subway has already grown over 15% (2.9 -> 3.35), with a higher price very, very likely. City staff made it clear $3.35 billion isn't a final cost - it's an estimate based on a lot of work still not completed. It doesn't include, among other things, financing, finished design work or construction over-runs, which virtually always occur.

Ask yourself this - is it logical that a 3 stop extension couldn't grow by potentially 50% even though 1 stop could, with both being at the same planning stages and with a three stop plan having even greater complexity?

There's nothing far-fetched about any of these suggestions.

If these overruns always occur, then why just apply it to the SSE? The cost will grow at the same rate as any other project at this stage, if anything this one will have greater accuracy prior to construction given the amount the amount of oversight and scrutiny here compared to any other project.

While we are moving forward id love to see an accurate cost breakdown of the delays and full costs associated with going backward:

1. going back to the unwanted LRT plan (inflation, additional design costs and cancellation + design delays included, additional RT costs)
2. going back to do study "value for money" nonsense report over these two flawed plans or a few years then (in the best case for the opposition) going back to 1.
3. going back to one of the already rejected but more realistic compromise LRT or subway plans on the RT corridor and starting from scratch on design.

All costs, impacts and delays should be reported and we can even leave out the cost and delays of politics which will surely occur when the reality is we have two questionable plans being debated. It would be far worse than it is now. It's not as rosey to go back as you may perceive. It really makes little sense in the bigger picture and for the people not to move forward here, unless the point is to make a political statement. None of the above costs or delays will even matter to the Opposition, nor will they be reported, or requested to be accurately reviewed.

 

[Rainforest]

The last estimate they gave for a three stop subway was 17 months ago - the same estimate they gave at the time for a 1 stop subway has already grown over 15% (2.9 -> 3.35), with a higher price very, very likely. City staff made it clear $3.35 billion isn't a final cost - it's an estimate based on a lot of work still not completed. It doesn't include, among other things, financing, finished design work or construction over-runs, which virtually always occur.

Ask yourself this - is it logical that a 3 stop extension couldn't grow by potentially 50% even though 1 stop could, with both being at the same planning stages and with a three stop plan having even greater complexity?

There's nothing far-fetched about any of these suggestions.

In my previous post, I explained why it won't happen:

a) If they go back to the 3-stop plan, it will likely grow somewhat from $4.3 billion but it won't grow by 50%.

b) They might save some, if they change the design (no deep bore).

c) Failing both (a) and (b), they will not include the extension to Sheppard. If they just add the Lawrence East station, then obviously it can't cost $2 billion to add.

 

[syn]

You aren't really explaining why it won't happen, you're simply writing that you don't think it will happen.

Unless they use some sense and put the entire thing above ground, this will very likely be a $5 billion extension, based on numbers provided by city staff. We're already at nearly $4 billion, as the current $3.35 billion price tag does not include about $600 million in additional costs.

Tory has suggested they will find hundreds of millions in savings, but the total amounts to less than $300 million.

This thing is going to continue getting more expensive - and that's ignoring the fact that $3.35 billion for a single stop extension is already completely insane.

At one point no one thought this extension would cost anything more than $2 billion; then it wouldn't be more than $3 billion; now it won't be more than $3.35 billion (even though it's already, right now, close to $4 billion). One stop is near the cost of the three stop plan cost of 17 months ago - there's no reason to think the 3 stop plan wouldn't have ballooned as well. Even adding a stop now would add significant costs - if not, they would've added it back already.

If people want a transfer free solution, then complete the Crosstown East LRT Extension and loop it with STC. This would would also provide rapid transit within Scarborough, with quality infrastructure suited to the density and ridership of Scarborough.

 

[OneCity]

1. "At one point no one thought this extension would cost anything more than $2 billion; then it wouldn't be more than $3 billion;"

2. "If people want a transfer free solution, then complete the Crosstown East LRT Extension and loop it with STC. This would would also provide rapid transit within Scarborough, with quality infrastructure suited to the density and ridership of Scarborough."

1. The biggest jump in cost was the extravagant Bus shelter as it was not accounted for at all in the $2billion and in addition it was extra costly to be underground. I don't see any more surprises like this. Surely costs will adjust with inflation and market material costs

2. Agreed. But that was rejected already as it was the Rob Ford - McGuinty solution. And this is a very political debate where residents clearly are secondary. Would council dare go back to a plan Ford had supported? Not likely and there is a reason we never hear about this plan as an alternate solution.

This LRT plan or subway on the old corridor made sense previously, but I don't see the savings in time to start over now, I also don't very much the cost savings after it all irons out, and saying things will iron out is also ambitious as going back will likely cause further political chaos which will only congest other projects and could increase costs with delays.

Best case is the elevate a portion to add a stop at Lawrence, worst case is we stop moving forward.

 

[Rainforest]

You aren't really explaining why it won't happen, you're simply writing that you don't think it will happen.

I explained why it will not cost $7 billion, and you failed to bring up any objections on the substance.

Unless they use some sense and put the entire thing above ground, this will very likely be a $5 billion extension, based on numbers provided by city staff. We're already at nearly $4 billion, as the current $3.35 billion price tag does not include about $600 million in additional costs.

Tory has suggested they will find hundreds of millions in savings, but the total amounts to less than $300 million.

This thing is going to continue getting more expensive - and that's ignoring the fact that $3.35 billion for a single stop extension is already completely insane.

At one point no one thought this extension would cost anything more than $2 billion; then it wouldn't be more than $3 billion; now it won't be more than $3.35 billion (even though it's already, right now, close to $4 billion). One stop is near the cost of the three stop plan cost of 17 months ago - there's no reason to think the 3 stop plan wouldn't have ballooned as well. Even adding a stop now would add significant costs - if not, they would've added it back already.

It might, under the worst-case scenario, escalate to $5 billion, but not to $7 billion.

If people want a transfer free solution, then complete the Crosstown East LRT Extension and loop it with STC. This would would also provide rapid transit within Scarborough, with quality infrastructure suited to the density and ridership of Scarborough.

Your solution is completely unworkable. The "loop" will be about 14 km long. At the 25 kph speed for on-street LRT, the trip from Kennedy to STC via UofT Scarborough will take about 33 min. All versions of the direct connection between Kennedy and STC (subway or light rail) will have trip time between 7 min and 12 min. Nobody in the right mind will use Eglinton East LRT for trips between Kennedy and STC.

There are many good reasons to build Eglinton East LRT; connecting Kennedy to STC is certainly not one of them.

 

[syn]

You aren't explaining why, you're simply stating it won't happen. Common sense dictates that with a lot of planning still to occur and costs not accounted for, it's not going to get any cheaper. Even Tory's own 'saving's numbers account for just a 7% drop in the current budget.

I agree the current one stop plan won't get to $7 billion - but $5 billion is a very realistic possibility considering we're already at nearly $4 billion. All of which is completely insane.

The one stop plan is unworkable at any reasonable price yet they're planning to do it anyways. The loop I'm referring to would not travel in just one direction; LRT's coming from the west could head north to STC then to Centennial College and UTSC. Those who want to head directly east on Eglinton can transfer.

This is a far more practical use of money as it provides far more rapid transit access to people actually traveling in Scarborough (which is where nearly half of all transit trips that start in Scarborough end), along with a no transfer link to the Yonge Line.

 

[Rainforest]

You aren't explaining why, you're simply stating it won't happen.

Yes, I explained that multiple times:

a) If they go back to the 3-stop plan, it will likely grow somewhat from $4.3 billion but it won't grow by 50%.

b) They might save some, if they change the design (no deep bore).

c) Failing both (a) and (b), they will not include the extension to Sheppard. If they just add the Lawrence East station, then obviously it can't cost $2 billion to add.

Common sense dictates that with a lot of planning still to occur and costs not accounted for, it's not going to get any cheaper. Even Tory's own 'saving's numbers account for just a 7% drop in the current budget.

I agree the current one stop plan won't get to $7 billion - but $5 billion is a very realistic possibility considering we're already at nearly $4 billion. All of which is completely insane.

The one stop plan is unworkable at any reasonable price yet they're planning to do it anyways.

My main objection was that it won't reach $7 billion.

I don't know if it can reach $5 billion; I hope not, but agree that it is possible.

The loop I'm referring to would not travel in just one direction; LRT's coming from the west could head north to STC then to Centennial College and UTSC. Those who want to head directly east on Eglinton can transfer.

This is a far more practical use of money as it provides far more rapid transit access to people actually traveling in Scarborough (which is where nearly half of all transit trips that start in Scarborough end), along with a no transfer link to the Yonge Line.

That wasn't clear from you previous post.

Based on how you describe it now, it might be workable but depends on many details. The demand between Kennedy and STC is so high that an in-median LRT can't handle it, so you might have to build two light rail lines roughly in the same direction. One in the Uxbridge Sub corridor to handle 50-60% of demand, and the other one on McCowan in-median to eliminate the transfer for those riders who wish to continue on Eglinton west of Kennedy.

That may be workable in theory, but not necessarily cheaper than the current plan, and surely will cause more delays.

 

[syn]

^It may not necessarily be cheaper, but it will be far, far more practical and provide real rapid transit for thousands of residents in Scarborough.

Nearly 50% of transit trips that begin in Scarborough end in Scarborough. Only 23% are headed downtown. A similar number are headed to the other parts of the city. This kind of LRT network would be a colossal boon to Scarborough in the way this one stop extension could never be - it's a far better value proposition too.

Certain areas can be raised - it doesn't all have to be at grade.

 

[drum118]

One can say why this is going to happen

City staff say updated Scarborough subway costs won't be published until after 2018 election

 

[syn]

Unacceptable. Who knows what it'll cost by that point?

Smart political move though - Tory can continue to milk it for votes, and if the cost spirals out of control he can dump it early in his 2nd term and minimize any damage to his political fortunes with another plan.

 

[Rainforest]

The report should be published as soon as it becomes available. There are many good reasons to build SSE, no need to hide the cost from the public. If the underground route appears way more expensive than originally thought, then the surface option should be revisited; the sooner, the better.

 

[Rainforest]

Nearly 50% of transit trips that begin in Scarborough end in Scarborough. Only 23% are headed downtown. A similar number are headed to the other parts of the city. This kind of LRT network would be a colossal boon to Scarborough in the way this one stop extension could never be - it's a far better value proposition too.

Not necessarily better value though. Building 2 light rail lines (or even 3) will affect just a portion of those 50% transit trips that begin and end in Scarborough. Perhaps, 20 to 30% of the total instead of 50%. Furthermore, the time saved will be very minor, 3-5 min, if the trip includes both a short light rail segment and an unchanged bus segment.

On the other hand, some of the downtown headed trips can be shortened by 10-15 min (no transfer, and faster STC-Kennedy segment) when the subway is extended.

Trips to downtown is a minority at 23%, but it is a group that can be substantially improved by one single move.