[rbt]

What a surprise that "the voice of reason" is simply the voice that echoes your own. The latest 2 polls aren't just showing that the cons are in 3rd place (with a large margin of distance between them and the 1st place libs), but perhaps more importantly that Doug Ford's net approval rating is worse than Kathleen Wynne's was immediately prior to the last election. That sort of unpopularity this early into the term is absolutely hilarious, yet equally predictable.

An election today would be disastrous for the PCs; but they have 3 more budgets to turn that tide. Few will remember this year if the next couple are decent and what he promises were efficiencies actually end up being efficiencies (rather than reduced levels of service).

I think he needs to do something meaningful on carbon policy for a majority (millennials ought to start voting in force). Since he's thown out capitalism as an answer, I'm not sure where you go other than substantial subsidies for green projects. Funding expansion of natural gas home heating is effectively the opposite.

 

[OneCity]

One could say the same of the PCs ... the latest poll puts the Liberals at 37% support with the interim leader, compared to 22% for the NDP under Horwarth and 21% for the PCs under Ford (and 11% for the Greens under Scheiner).

With Del Luca as the leader, the Liberals still lead, but are only at 34% support (ignoring the undecided), with Horwath at 25% and Ford at 28% and PCs at 24%.

Interestingly, with John Tory leading the Liberals (as if!) the Liberals are up to 42%.

Everyone leader they tested, put the Liberals at number one. But yes, with a more likeable leader is needed.

However, looks like the Liberals maybe back no matter what, if this poll holds up and/or Ford's spiral continues.

I'm not sure Del Duca can resonate when push come to shove. Tory is a far better speaker and more well known so he could certainly win. That poll (FWIW) is also a snapshot taken a time when you'd expect to see the Cons in a bit of a struggle with fresh wounds from their cuts . They will soften and begin to campaign shortly so I believe its far closer..

I also actually think the door is open slightly for the NDP again but they need to move toward the Centre a bit to capture the fed up middle voter on both the Right and Left that is currently available. Not sure if

 

[Hopkins123]

What a surprise that "the voice of reason" is simply the voice that echoes your own. The latest 2 polls aren't just showing that the cons are in 3rd place (with a large margin of distance between them and the 1st place libs), but perhaps more importantly that Doug Ford's net approval rating is worse than Kathleen Wynne's was immediately prior to the last election. That sort of unpopularity this early into the term is absolutely hilarious, yet equally predictable.

This is like saying that just because Trump has been polling generally under 40% throughout his first term, he's not likely to be reelected; although realistically at this point in the campaign given his competition he's still the odds on favorite to win. I'm sure Doug's actions are more strategic than they appear to be to the casual observer such as you or I.

If this were year three, then yes, if I was a conservative voter and saw these kind of polling numbers I'd be more alarmed. But as is it's a weak official opposition and a Liberal party down to five members (and KW probably won't be seeking reelection in 2022 either). You have to understand that while Ford may not be attracting new fans, he risks alienating the ones whom already voted for him by reneging on his promises. That's why he's taking these hard lines. But no one knows what will come next yet. Maybe the PCs are just getting all the tough love stuff out of the way early, and will govern more from the centre for the rest of their term. I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt. If I'm wrong then, hey, I guess that just confirms that the system is broken and my cynicism will truly kick in because 15 years of Liberal rule sure didn't improve things in my view.

 

[Hopkins123]

An election today would be disastrous for the PCs; but they have 3 more budgets to turn that tide. Few will remember this year if the next couple are decent and what he promises were efficiencies actually end up being efficiencies (rather than reduced levels of service).

I think he needs to do something meaningful on carbon policy for a majority (millennials ought to start voting in force). Since he's thown out capitalism as an answer, I'm not sure where you go other than substantial subsidies for green projects. Funding expansion of natural gas home heating is effectively the opposite.

If provincial and federal levels of support coincide with each other, then the Progressive Conservatives are doing nowhere near as badly as the media would have us believe. The poll aggregator, 338canada, came out with this today:

Essentially it's a PC Minority buy still a strong showing, where interestingly enough we'd be deadlocked at 62 for the PCs and 62 for the Libs and NDP combined. A few vote splits could change everything.

 

[nfitz]

I'm not sure Del Duca can resonate when push come to shove. Tory is a far better speaker and more well known so he could certainly win.

True and about Del Duca, and true thatTory is a better speaker.

But Tory is also a Conservative, and too far right to ever be accepted by the Liberals. He's never going to lead the Liberals.

They will soften and begin to campaign shortly so I believe its far closer.

I'd think that would be the plan. But I don't think the epic fail we've seen so far is something that any leader recovers from. Perhaps if they toss Doug For in the sewer where he belongs, put in a competent leader, and roll back the cuts on public health, education, hospitals, etc., then they might recover. With a leader as grossly incompetent and disliked as Doug Ford, they are finished ... likely for a generation.

I also actually think the door is open slightly for the NDP again but they need to move toward the Centre a bit to capture the fed up middle voter on both the Right and Left that is currently available.

Horwarth has moved them further right - and it's done them little good. What they need is a competent and dynamic leader. This isn't Horwarth.

 

[rbt]

If provincial and federal levels of support coincide with each other...

It would be unusual for that to be the case in Ontario. That said, it's also very unusual to elect someone as majority Premier on their first attempt as party leader (Ford). Polisci students have all kinds of new unusual patterns to explore.

 

[OneCity]

True and about Del Duca, and true thatTory is a better speaker.

But Tory is also a Conservative, and too far right to ever be accepted by the Liberals. He's never going to lead the Liberals.

I'd think that would be the plan. But I don't think the epic fail we've seen so far is something that any leader recovers from. Perhaps if they toss Doug For in the sewer where he belongs, put in a competent leader, and roll back the cuts on public health, education, hospitals, etc., then they might recover. With a leader as grossly incompetent and disliked as Doug Ford, they are finished ... likely for a generation.

Horwarth has moved them further right - and it's done them little good. What they need is a competent and dynamic leader. This isn't Horwarth.

Almost agree.

But i see Tory as a progressive Centre-right conservative and was a bit surprised to see his name attached to the Liberals. Although there is very little difference between Centre-Right Cons or Centre-Left Liberals. It makes some sense if the Liberals actually want to win and Tory would have to really want to personally one up Ford.

The NDP are simply lost looking for anything to stick in a time they should be doing better. Horwarth was likeable but the party has been all over the spectrum including the dip into more extreme Left politics. If they do move to the Centre with a new leader they can become Liberals without the baggage. I doubt they will as they should have been doing that last election, but the door is still open after 4 years of Conservative cuts and the Liberals clearly still looking for a new identity

 

[nfitz]

Although there is very little difference between Centre-Right Cons or Centre-Left Liberals.

There might not be much between an individual red Tory and those at the right-side of the Liberal party, but it's hard to see the similarities of the greater group - particularly given how regressive and damaging so many of John Tory's penny-pinching right-wing policies have been, particularly outside of the transit file.

John Tory simply polls well because he opposes the far-right currently controlling the PC party and has name recognition. You could probably put in Barack Obama and get better numbers than any of the current Liberal candidates, because he has name recognition, despite the obvious ineligibility. Sadly no one will ever fund such a silly poll ...

 

[Neutrino]

Everything is far right for nfitz.

 

[nfitz]

Everything is far right for nfitz.

Gosh, certainly not. I wouldn't categorize John Tory as far right. Or even most Tory leaders still around such as as Bill Davis, Brian Mulroney, Kim Campbell, Ernie Eves, or even Steven Harper. Please discuss the topic, and not other posters - and certainly don't make assumptions or put words in people's mouths!

At the same time,I wouldn't call most living politicians far-left either ... other than perhaps Raul Castro ... and a handful of others whose names don't even stay in my mind. Left-wing and right-wing certainly don't mean far-left and far-right - with extremists of any ilk being particularly odious!

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

Ford could lose the popular vote overall but still lead the PCs into winning the most seats considering the seat distribution. I don't think Ford has any disillusions about being the leader long term regardless. Just like Mike Harris did, he will go in and do all the dirty but (in fiscal conservatives view) necessary work and then pass things on to someone else. You may not respect him for it but the PCs would've looked seriously weak and ineffectual as high hell to their fans had they not gone this route.

Finally, a voice of reason. Ford is likely far more popular than these "polls" seem to be reflecting and that's not going to change any time soon. This just seems to be the rumblings of a vocal and mobilized minority thinking that they speak for everyone. Liberals must be scared shitless that outside of the cities of Toronto, Ottawa and Thunder Bay proper they have almost no support throughout the entire province. We mustn't forget how we got to this point, 15 long arduous years of Liberals' lying, cheating and stealing from Peter to give to Tom.

I encourage Del Duca to run though. Maybe with him we can turn that caravan into a two-seat bicycle!

Patrick Brown was a better choice.

True and about Del Duca, and true thatTory is a better speaker.

But Tory is also a Conservative, and too far right to ever be accepted by the Liberals. He's never going to lead the Liberals.

I'd think that would be the plan. But I don't think the epic fail we've seen so far is something that any leader recovers from. Perhaps if they toss Doug For in the sewer where he belongs, put in a competent leader, and roll back the cuts on public health, education, hospitals, etc., then they might recover. With a leader as grossly incompetent and disliked as Doug Ford, they are finished ... likely for a generation.

Horwarth has moved them further right - and it's done them little good. What they need is a competent and dynamic leader. This isn't Horwarth.

I'm not sure Del Duca can resonate when push come to shove. Tory is a far better speaker and more well known so he could certainly win. That poll (FWIW) is also a snapshot taken a time when you'd expect to see the Cons in a bit of a struggle with fresh wounds from their cuts . They will soften and begin to campaign shortly so I believe its far closer..

I also actually think the door is open slightly for the NDP again but they need to move toward the Centre a bit to capture the fed up middle voter on both the Right and Left that is currently available. Not sure if

10 years is enough. Horwarth should have given someone else the chance to lead. 2018 election was there for the taking.

 

[kEiThZ]

Almost agree.

But i see Tory as a progressive Centre-right conservative and was a bit surprised to see his name attached to the Liberals. Although there is very little difference between Centre-Right Cons or Centre-Left Liberals. It makes some sense if the Liberals actually want to win and Tory would have to really want to personally one up Ford.

Name recognition. Whatever people in this forum think of Tory, he seems to be popular as the mayor, both in the 416 and the 905. That hardcore conservative populist base might still vote for Ford, but virtually everyone else would vote for Tory as a Liberal.

On topic, I am a fan of the province taking over assets like the DVP, Gardiner and even the subway network. Give them all the high capital and high maintenance assets that are also substantially used by non-residents. Might just push them to invest more in this infrastructure.