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occidentalcapital said:
But the full picture is that this was only made possible by WestJet ending basically all overseas flying from Toronto and Vancouver, and cancelling orders for any future widebody aircraft (i.e. this is about it for international flying, no growth planned from here). This is not the picture of a healthy airline. WestJet's fascination with Calgary has actually resulted in Air Canada ending majority of regional and US business flying out of Calgary- it is really doubtful whether WestJet is able to sustain their existing network at current fare levels. Air Canada clearly decided it was unsustainable. I think the launch of these routes is further evidence of WestJet being run like a Calgary vanity project, and not as an actual business-minded concern. In their current format, Westjet may not be long for this world...
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This is the result of Onex effectively doubling down on Calgary. When Onex bought WestJet (acquisition closed December 2019) it was right before COVID. The pandemic caved virtually any forecastable model Onex had on WestJet and now the return profile to Onex is not even close to what was predicted. Today, Onex is completely restrategizing to salvage a return profile on their investment, which has led to them doubling down on Calgary as a "global hub". How this shapes up, who knows, but this is entirely the symptom of a private equity group restrategizing to effectively salvage an investment.
 
Not sure why WS expects Vancouverites and Torontonians to back track to YYC to hop on a plane to Europe? Are they insane to expect that? I’m no where near an airline analyst but even this layman can predict this as a colossal failure. Wonder what their Global YYC Hub back up plan is? Gee whiz, let me guess, put their 787’s back to where their demand is at……
 
That’s a lot of seats to fill from a bunch of Saskatchee pig farmers and Manitoban’s…..to go to where? Barcelona? Are they nuts? Me and you might go there…but not that crowd…..
 
So how does the EIA management or whatever they call themselves now look at these developments as an opportunity? With AC withdrawing a lot of capacity from YYC, EIA should be using this as an opportunity. I have very little confidence in management based on historical performance but if they are forward thinking they should be strategizing an opportunity here. Or are they going to continue the current trajectory of knick knacks and pet projects.
 
BASE said:
Exciting for WestJet and YYC no doubt although they have a bit of a ceiling on their long distance international ambitions with those 7 Dreamliner frames. They could also end up losing some AC (not yet) or other long haul international carriers which could temper that excitement a bit.
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AC does not give a hoot about YYC or YEG in this Westjet dogfight for global dominance at YYC. AC does however care a lot about YVR. I expect AC will beef up Vancouver significantly in the weeks ahead with more routes to Europe, South and Asia - leaving WS trying its best to lure passengers in Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Alberta from connecting at YYZ or market. And with a few simple flights from YEG -
occidentalcapital said:
But the full picture is that this was only made possible by WestJet ending basically all overseas flying from Toronto and Vancouver, and cancelling orders for any future widebody aircraft (i.e. this is about it for international flying, no growth planned from here). This is not the picture of a healthy airline. WestJet's fascination with Calgary has actually resulted in Air Canada ending majority of regional and US business flying out of Calgary- it is really doubtful whether WestJet is able to sustain their existing network at current fare levels. Air Canada clearly decided it was unsustainable. I think the launch of these routes is further evidence of WestJet being run like a Calgary vanity project, and not as an actual business-minded concern. In their current format, Westjet may not be long for this world...
Click to expand...
Expect changes at ONEX now that leadership has changed. For many investors the WS new business model is Calgary centric and that is risky. I expect ONEX to sell WS or put it out on an IPO. In either case it will do some serious rethinking and cutting.
 
Porter is competing at the premium end of the market - almost exactly the opposite of Flair
 
It's a pretty nice value proposition to guarantee no middle seat when you are likely going to be flying a narrow body domestic anyways. I think their economy seats on these aircraft are going to be as big or bigger than most other seats you'll find.
 
It's almost the Wardair approach to flying - back in the day, Wardair advertised their economy was as good as the other guy's business class. Porter isn't quite there, but their service is certainly not bargain-basement.
 
Porter is starting YEG flights in February
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