Despite being the better team in 2/3 games, the Oilers find themselves in a 3-0 hole. I wasn't able to watch the second and third period of game 3 due to my own ball hockey playoff game (unfortunately lost 3-2 in a shootout).
A comeback is not impossible, but at this point it's basically over. They didn't even play badly, barring game 2, in fact by most metrics they were the better team throughout most of the series so far. However, costly defensive miscues paired with the Panthers capitalising on nearly every one of those miscues has put them here.
The Panthers have relied on Bobrovsky heavily throughout this series so far and he has delivered. It feels like no ordinary play is going to beat him, even a cross crease one-timer won't beat him. You almost have to get either a breakaway or a bounce in front to score on him. This in my opinion is the main reason the Oilers are in a hole.
If you go out and play great hockey, getting way more chances than the other team, but can't seem to beat their goalie. No matter how mentally tough and seasoned you are it can get in your head. Pair that with the fact that nearly every mistake you make is ending up in the back of your net and its a recipe for a death of agonizing pain. As you throw everything and the kitchen sink at them, but can't make anything work.
Put on top of that the fact that much of the roster is playing slightly banged up, and significant players at that: Draisaitl is clearly labouring, Nurse is also hurt, it wouldn't shock me to hear that McDavid has some kind of nagging injury as well.
A reverse-sweep has never happened in the Stanley Cup Finals before,
however if any team can do it, it's this Oiler team.
I have a few things that give me a little glimmer of hope:
1- The Oilers have been better than the Panthers as an entire team throughout this series, if they can clean up their D-Zone and Skinner can start making some timely saves, things could turn in their favour.
2- The Panthers are relying very heavily on the play of Sergei Bobrovsky, who has been up to the challenge so far. But facing barrage after barrage of chances is going to tire out any goalie. I wouldn't be surprised to see Bob start to show sign of fatigue.
3- The Oilers have been down and out so many times this year and willed their way back into the conversation every time.
I don't think it will happen, Florida is a great team playing in front of a great goalie, but if the Oilers comeback and win the Stanley Cup, it would be the greatest comeback in sports history, hands down. Dead in the water in November, battling back to take second in their division, taking out the Canucks and the heavily favoured Stars and finally reverse sweeping the Stanley Cup Final.
The first step is to put some doubts in their mind next game. Come out hard and don't make anymore stupid mistakes.
No matter how this series ends up, I believe the Oilers have accomplised their goal this year:
- Prove to Draisaitl and McDavid that they are a team that has a very good shot at winning a championship and soon, convincing them to stay rather than sign elsewhere when their contracts are up after next season for Draisaitl and the year after for McDavid.
If both those guys resign I have no doubt in my mind that there will be a cup in Edmonton in the next 4-5 years.