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Highlights​

  • Strong housing starts: Total housing starts are forecasted to remain robust, propelled by economic fundamentals and a strong demand for lower-priced multi-unit housing developments.
  • Resale market growth: Resale market transactions are expected to grow modestly, accompanied by an increase in the average price. Potential homeowners may face challenges due to reduced borrowing capacity and limited inventory of lower-priced units.
  • Edmonton rental market outlook: The rental market in Edmonton is projected to stay tight, with rental demand surpassing supply, leading to lower vacancy rates and higher average rents throughout most of the forecast period.


 
IanO said:

View attachment 560491View attachment 560492Highlights​

  • Strong housing starts: Total housing starts are forecasted to remain robust, propelled by economic fundamentals and a strong demand for lower-priced multi-unit housing developments.
  • Resale market growth: Resale market transactions are expected to grow modestly, accompanied by an increase in the average price. Potential homeowners may face challenges due to reduced borrowing capacity and limited inventory of lower-priced units.
  • Edmonton rental market outlook: The rental market in Edmonton is projected to stay tight, with rental demand surpassing supply, leading to lower vacancy rates and higher average rents throughout most of the forecast period.


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The years from 2018 to 2021 were really not economically great here which probably explains much of this.

Looking at the chart a more common ratio seems around 60%, which would mean quite a large increase in prices here from current levels, or a large decline there. Or some combination of both.
 
Update on the Carrington property that owners had to vacate in Castle downs due to risk of collapse - sorry if posted somewhere already.

Carrington can't successfully be sued despite this:

"Investigators determined the 83-unit building, constructed in 1999, does not match the architectural designs on record and that construction did not comply with the building code."

"Housing developers often rely on single-use corporations. Developers create new corporations for the sole purpose of developing a project, and then dissolve the company once construction is complete." As a result there is basically no one to sue.

Condo corporation is dissolving. People still have to pay their mortgages and walk away. Owners will get a bit of money from land sale. Many declaring bankruptcy.


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Edmonton has a history of going through boom and bust cycles -- maybe that statement is a bit harsh in that Edmonton more likely has a history of going from one boom cycle to another with a period of calm normality in between.

Here is a "bird" analogy. When the boom cycles arrive it attracts vultures who want to pick at the bones of "plentiful" and they have less than pure scruples -- make a buck as fast and as messy as needs be to feather our own nests and bedamned the sloppy spillover on the City and its people. These vultures are often outsiders but there are some who grew up within the bounds of the City (homegrown vultures) that have gained a merited reputation as "shifty".

At the other end of the spectrum we have the Great Horned Owl, Alberta's own Official Avian. The Owl throughout history in tale after tale has been deemed as wise, vermin-averse, and a symbol of rectitude. There are plenty of Edmontonians and corporate structures that could align with the image afforded by the Owl -- these are the ones to pay attention to in the boom cycle that Edmonton is moving into.

The names that come to my mind are:
- Daryl Katz and his organization "The Katz Group of Companies"
- Gene Dub, Architect and his company Five Oaks, Inc.
- Marc de la Bruyère, Bill Blais, Bruce Bentley and the rest of the crew at Maclab Development Group
- Ivan Beljan, Jasvir Tungal, and every last one of the crew at Beljan Development
- Chris Dulaba and his (relatively) new development company
- Henry Edgar and his development organization "Autograph"
- Dave Filipchuk and the crew at PCL Construction
- John Day (John Day Developments), Kevin McKee and crew at Pangman Development Corporation
- Cecilia Williams, CEO Allied Properties REIT
- David Lam, Davide Sanche, Richie Lam and crew at Westrich Pacific Corp.
- Shane Erickson, Mike Saunders and Crew at Qualico Properties, Edmonton
- David Mitton and crew at Leston Holdings
- Reza Mostashari and crew at Langham Developments Ltd.
- Abed Itani and company at Cidex Group
- Radhe Gupta, Rohit Gupta and company at Rohit Group
- Husein Moloo and crew at Highpoint Developments
- George Cantalini and associates at the Cantiro Group of Companies
- Lorraine Bodnarek and associates at Landrex Developers Ltd.

As you might guess from the rather extensive list Edmonton is in good hands.
 
TAS said:
Update on the Carrington property that owners had to vacate in Castle downs due to risk of collapse - sorry if posted somewhere already.

Carrington can't successfully be sued despite this:

"Investigators determined the 83-unit building, constructed in 1999, does not match the architectural designs on record and that construction did not comply with the building code."

"Housing developers often rely on single-use corporations. Developers create new corporations for the sole purpose of developing a project, and then dissolve the company once construction is complete." As a result there is basically no one to sue.

Condo corporation is dissolving. People still have to pay their mortgages and walk away. Oqners will get a bit of money from land sale. Many declaring bankruptcy.


View attachment 561674
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Disgusting on all accounts. That there is essentially no recourse or compensation is a flaw in the system. Carrington/their contractor/their consultants should be liable and or have their business license revoked.

This reminds me of the TESSCO projects, where 90% needed a new envelope within 5 years at 40-50k a unit with no ability for retribution.
 
IanO said:
Disgusting on all accounts. That there is essentially no recourse or compensation is a flaw in the system. Carrington/their contractor/their consultants should be liable and or have their business license revoked.

This reminds me of the TESSCO projects, where 90% needed a new envelope within 5 years at 40-50k a unit with no ability for retribution.
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The single use corporation thing is such a joke. Law should be put in place where, when negligence is found, whoever was on the board can be pursued for the life of the development. So if load bearing beams for example are missing, it doesn't matter HOW long it's been, the victims of the situation still a path of recourse.

I'm so sick of this form of insulation in this country.
 
Yeggy said:
Terrifying, imo.

View attachment 561568
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Perhaps rising prices will bring encourage some seller and about a bit more inventory, but I suspect the 5 years or so of languishing prices here are finally over.

If the buyers and sellers are mostly local, there can be a sort of balance, but when you start having a number of buyers from elsewhere coming in, that disrupts that balance.
 
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