[Rainforest]

These arguments lead to the conclusion that any planned line, built as heavy rail, will steal the ridership of an existing line, and therefore ought to be built that way. In other words, by spending four times as much on the surface portions, we can build much more capacity than is needed, and thereby render an existing line less efficient and more money-losing. Yes, that's a good plan for governments facing huge deficits. Not.

Here's another possible conclusion. If 12,000 people switch to the Eglinton line on day two of its operation, it will grind to a halt. The 12,000 people who stay on the Bloor line will observe that their trains are suddenly half empty and much more pleasant to use, and tell their friends about it, half of whom are the Eglinton riders. By day four or five, the loads will balance out and the increased capacity of the two combined lines will be used efficiently, allowing for ridership growth on both lines.

You have a point - do we need to build Eglinton subway and relieve Bloor, if Bloor is not at capacity yet ...

In fact, either choice has its pros and cons, and will be a trade-off. Actually, I've been in favor of LRT solution for Eglinton. This is what makes me change my mind:

1) Lack of plans for GO train to the airport (ARL only, which caters to business travelers and lacks connections).

2) Apparent lack of interest in creating Midtown GO line for trips within Toronto.

3) Eglinton LRT design team seems to be unhappy with the technology limits, and struggles to overcome them (3-car trains, tricky left turn arrangements).

4) And finally, I realized how a meaningful Phase I subway can be build for the funds already allocated: Yonge to Pearson. That's 18 km, if the average cost is 250 million per km (using at-grade option in Richview corridor, and elevated across 427 / 401), that will be 4.5 billion.

Eglinton East would have to wait for Phase II, which is certainly a drawback. But it will be mitigated if DRL East is build, from downtown/Spadina to Eglinton / Don Mills. Lawrence East, Leslie, 100 Flemmington buses would operate off the DRL terminus, and only 34 Eglinton East would have to run to Yonge.

 

[reaperexpress]

One possible (if cynical) advantage to having the Eglinton line built as a subway, is that it would put the Yonge line so insanely over capacity south of Eglinton that the TTC will have no choice but to build the DRL.

As long as the Eglinton line is faster than the Bloor-Danforth line between Kennedy Station and the Yonge line, it would divert some of the pressure from the Bloor-Yonge interchange, removing the necessity of an extremely expensive overhaul, and increasing the necessity of increased line capacity (ie. the DRL).

Also, if it as built as Subway, the TTC would save money from tunnel boring. Since the LRT tunnel is to be 6m diameter to accommodate the pantograph, they would have to excavate more dirt than they would with a subway tunnel of 5.4m diameter.

They already spent $58million on four 5.4m diameter TBMs for the Spadina Extension, so instead of buying new larger (and likely more expensive) TBMs, they can simply use the ones they already purchased.
http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/article/669861

 

[Dan416]

One possible (if cynical) advantage to having the Eglinton line built as a subway, is that it would put the Yonge line so insanely over capacity south of Eglinton that the TTC will have no choice but to build the DRL.

As long as the Eglinton line is faster than the Bloor-Danforth line between Kennedy Station and the Yonge line, it would divert some of the pressure from the Bloor-Yonge interchange, removing the necessity of an extremely expensive overhaul, and increasing the necessity of increased line capacity (ie. the DRL).

Also, if it as built as Subway, the TTC would save money from tunnel boring. Since the LRT tunnel is to be 6m diameter to accommodate the pantograph, they would have to excavate more dirt than they would with a subway tunnel of 5.4m diameter.

They already spent $58million on four 5.4m diameter TBMs for the Spadina Extension, so instead of buying new larger (and likely more expensive) TBMs, they can simply use the ones they already purchased.
http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/article/669861

They really should use those Spadina TBMs on Eglinton and Sheppard.

 

[scarberiankhatru]

Eglinton, even if built as a subway line, will never be as busy as Bloor, even if the TTC goes out of its way to randomly funnel bus riders to Eglinton and not Bloor.

That's a useful figure. Do you also know how Sheppard compares today with its predicted ridership?

Its projected ridership and its current ridership are pretty much identical...the latter may have already passed the former, but ridership counts tend to fluctuate by some percent.

 

[Dan416]

Eglinton, even if built as a subway line, will never be as busy as Bloor, even if the TTC goes out of its way to randomly funnel bus riders to Eglinton and not Bloor.

Why not? Well not right away, but over time, I see no reason why Eglinton WOULDN'T surpass Bloor, or at least match it or come close. People will transfer over to Eglinton if it gets them where they're going FASTER (see there's that word FAST again).

 

[EFSF Jaburo]

yes, here's the guy talking about going FAST when he wants to add more stations on the yonge line - pure genius

 

[reaperexpress]

Eglinton, even if built as a subway line, will never be as busy as Bloor, even if the TTC goes out of its way to randomly funnel bus riders to Eglinton and not Bloor.

The thing is, that if it is built as a subway line, it can serve as a corridor for development like the Sheppard line did. This would significantly increase ridership. I'm sure that condo developers would pay for the privilege of building next to a subway station. What happened with Bessarion? Did the TTC profit financially or did they just "choose" to stick a station there because there was going to be development?

 

[scarberiankhatru]

The thing is, that if it is built as a subway line, it can serve as a corridor for development like the Sheppard line did. This would significantly increase ridership. I'm sure that condo developers would pay for the privilege of building next to a subway station. What happened with Bessarion? Did the TTC profit financially or did they just "choose" to stick a station there because there was going to be development?

That won't happen to Eglinton. There's no plans to significantly redevelop it. Bloor and Danforth themselves have seen almost no development. The city chooses where to permit projects and the city chooses where to build transit and the two do not always go together in the same places.

 

[Second_in_pie]

That won't happen to Eglinton. There's no plans to significantly redevelop it. Bloor and Danforth themselves have seen almost no development. The city chooses where to permit projects and the city chooses where to build transit and the two do not always go together in the same places.

1. Even if it gets absolutely no redevelopment, Eglinton is still quite similar in density to Bloor.

2. Eglinton could easily skim off at least 1/2 of the B-D's bus ridership.

3. The reason the B-D corridor hasn't been redeveloped is because the City thinks it's a good, stable neighborhood. It's the same reason they don't redevelop Queen street, even though developers would line up to put up condos on it. Eglinton has none of these problems. In fact, Eglinton west has a perfect, ~6 km long completely vacant corridor to develop on top of. Put a subway there, and I'll eat my own shoe if nobody wants to build condos.

 

[scarberiankhatru]

1. Even if it gets absolutely no redevelopment, Eglinton is still quite similar in density to Bloor.

2. Eglinton could easily skim off at least 1/2 of the B-D's bus ridership.

3. The reason the B-D corridor hasn't been redeveloped is because the City thinks it's a good, stable neighborhood. It's the same reason they don't redevelop Queen street, even though developers would line up to put up condos on it. Eglinton has none of these problems. In fact, Eglinton west has a perfect, ~6 km long completely vacant corridor to develop on top of. Put a subway there, and I'll eat my own shoe if nobody wants to build condos.

If by quite similar, you mean lower, then yes.

No, it can't skim 50%+. Check out the actual ridership of the routes that feed various stations and notice how many of these riders will continue using B/D. People aren't going to travel north to Eglinton and back south again. People certainly won't travel from south of B/D up to Eglinton. Take a route like Jane: it dumps about 10,000 rides a day onto Bloor, but most of these rides begin south of Eglinton and will not switch. Other Jane bus riders will transfer to Eglinton, but not the ones currently taking the Jane bus to Bloor.

Do you know how many condos it would take along Eglinton to generate, say, 100,000 rides a day? Given 'Avenues' parameters, you'd literally need hundreds of buildings, which may not even fit along the entire length of Eglinton, and even then B/D would still be busier.

Most of Eglinton's theoretical ridership gains come from general increases in transit usage, including luring drivers out of their car, or luring people off east/west routes like Lawrence (though if they get back on the YUS line...). One problem is that there really isn't much on Eglinton, including absolutely nothing between Yonge and the airport, that people travel to. B/D already goes across the city, intercepts Eglinton at one end, and stays at most 4km away. The only way to change this would be to extend Eglinton to, for instance, STC and well into Mississauga and divert unexpected bus routes to it. Even if that happened, it may not pass B/D.

 

[Fresh Start]

If by quite similar, you mean lower, then yes.

No, it can't skim 50%+. Check out the actual ridership of the routes that feed various stations and notice how many of these riders will continue using B/D. People aren't going to travel north to Eglinton and back south again. People certainly won't travel from south of B/D up to Eglinton. Take a route like Jane: it dumps about 10,000 rides a day onto Bloor, but most of these rides begin south of Eglinton and will not switch. Other Jane bus riders will transfer to Eglinton, but not the ones currently taking the Jane bus to Bloor.

It would skim on average 50% of the north-of-Bloor N-S feeder buses' daily ridership. Finch LRT may siphon away a percentage of those commuting between Steeles and Sheppard, but everyone to the south as far as St Clair would find it more convenient to transfer at Eglinton. Why? Kipling to B-Y = 18 stns or 35 minutes, Kipling-Eglinton to Yonge-Eglinton = 14 stns or approx. 28 minutes... time savings 7 minutes. If downtown is the end-destination, transferring at Allen Stn saves 8 minutes from not going over to Yonge St. And 8 minutes is roughly the time it takes to get from Eg West to St George. So Eglinton will always prove to be the faster crosstown subway route.

Once the Mississauga Transitway is built connecting SQ1 directly to the Eglinton Line what incentive is there for the bulk of 905 West commuters to keep enduring 45 minute excursions to Kipling/Islington followed by 35 minutes on B-D? They'll likely make the Transitway + Eglinton Line their preferred mode of travel. So picture Islington's usage today then imagine it with 70% of its customer base gone. Losing most of the Mississauga influx will seriously cripple B-D's numbers.

Do you know how many condos it would take along Eglinton to generate, say, 100,000 rides a day? Given 'Avenues' parameters, you'd literally need hundreds of buildings, which may not even fit along the entire length of Eglinton, and even then B/D would still be busier.

Eglinton subway doesn't need on-site density to be a success. It already has thriving shopping districts and low- to mid-rise apt blocks dotting the entire corridor. Through Richview there are high-rises around the major intersections. Eglinton's already an Avenue from Bicknell to Brentcliffe. Walk-in patronage will not be an issue for most station locations. Islington's perhaps the exception but even it will have enough feeder traffic to be a high-preformer. And condos and townies are already going up between RY and Scarlett Rd. So how much more adjacent density's truly needed here?

Most of Eglinton's theoretical ridership gains come from general increases in transit usage, including luring drivers out of their car, or luring people off east/west routes like Lawrence (though if they get back on the YUS line...). One problem is that there really isn't much on Eglinton, including absolutely nothing between Yonge and the airport, that people travel to. B/D already goes across the city, intercepts Eglinton at one end, and stays at most 4km away. The only way to change this would be to extend Eglinton to, for instance, STC and well into Mississauga and divert unexpected bus routes to it. Even if that happened, it may not pass B/D.

What theoretical gains? Eglinton's already very close to the TTC's questionable justification-for-subways number of 10,000pphpd. The Transitway isn't hypothetical, neither would be new GO Stns at Mt Dennis, Caledonia and Wynford. Greater integration of lines and services equates greater incentives to transfer. People definitely would be lured off the 58 Malton bus if both routes meet at the airport; and the advantage of building stations vs. road-median bus shelters is that the 52 Lawrence West bus could terminate at Martin Grove/Eglinton. What one may preceive as travelling out of one's way to connect to reliable service, has obvious time-advantages for those whom opt those methods. So for someone living at Islington/Lawrence it would just be faster to travel 5 mins down on the 37, rather than endure a half-hour on the 52. It's just common sense.

The east end may be a different story because of how B-D/SRT's positioned, but for anyone not going downtown and perhaps desiring Mississauga, the airport or even a faster connection to the Spadina Line; going straight across Eglinton will prove to be far more attractive for customers. So the reality is that B-D's numbers would decline while Eglinton's goes up resulting in a 2:1 split. So of 500,000 crosstown commuters (Kennedy to Hwy 427) maybe 300,000 will stick with B-D (advantage: closer to the downtown core) while 200,000 will frequent Eglinton subway (advantage: fewers tops, straighter alignment = time savings).

 

[scarberiankhatru]

Keep dreaming, Fresh Start (and any amphibius associates that may be lurking around).

Why go to all that bluster only to conclude that Bloor/Danforth will move 50% more people than Eglinton? All you did was prove my point - using invented numbers, though, which...whatever.

 

[Fresh Start]

What invented numbers? 480k ride the B-D line today, which is bound to go up past 500k eventually and it does take around 35 minutes from Kipling to Bloor-Yonge. I gave my reasoning why B-D will still be higher, because it's physically closer to the downtown. That doesn't dismiss the relevancy of an Eglinton subway. Can the Bloor Line get commuters to the airport? No. Can it seamlessly connect to MT's rapid transit service? No? Those are two huge customer bases that a Eglinton subway is more equipped to handle, not to mention it siphoning a large chuck of north-of-Bloor bus riders.

 

[scarberiankhatru]

Yes, Bloor can be extended to the airport, and for billions less than Eglinton can, but a downtown-airport rail link means neither is particularly necessary.

 

[Rainforest]

^ Nope. If ARL was served by regular-fare GO trains with multiple stops within 416 (or both GO trains and those 20-dollars expresses), then, perhaps, it could become the main transit link for the airport.

But we are getting 20-dollar expresses only, and they will attract, mostly, business travelers from downtown who can expense that trip.

For almost anyone north of Bloor, ARL will be useless. Yes a stop at Weston has been added, but taking TTC first, taking Lawrence bus, and then transferring and paying separate fare? Travelers on budget will take Eglinton (subway or LRT) or Finch LRT, while those who are willing to pay more, will take a cab.