[TOareaFan]

Given Paul's comments, even with the existing UP Express service, VIA and GO services, do they ever have a three train meet through the existing tunnel? Paul, has this only been done once and only for the 2015 test? Would a tunnel help with reliability for the existing service levels? If the Bypass discussions or Agreement takes too long, runs into property owner opposition, challenges with the utilities, or no government wants to fund the published $2.2B cost* (or too much funding goes to subways), maybe they can pressure CN to just allow them to buy some property to get them to the south side of Bramalea. That wouldn't be ideal but it could be a potential scenario. In that case the tunnel is definitely needed.

Since they have not previously been able to convince CN to let them get more trains into Bramalea.......I can't imagine all of those things happening would make CN more open to the idea.....it would seem to me that if that happens, and there is no bypass in the works, and GO is now more desperate to get trains into Bramalea as the only service expansion possible that CN would be even more difficult to deal with.

 

[Allandale25]

^ I agree with all possible scenarios. Not disagreeing. It's why I like to use "if".

The unknown ingredient in all of this is multi-party political pressure. There's an election coming up. The NDP and PCs are vocal on wanting more service for the Kitchener Line. They haven't yet said they'd do a *better* job negotiating with CN but one would think that's what they realize they'd have to do. But, maybe if another party was elected (or the existing one) they'd get so distracted by the Toronto subway conversation (and LRT tunnel ask for Eglinton W) that'd they'd lose focus on this.

Given the space on the south side between that Halwest signal bridge Paul mentioned and the northern most end of the Bramalea station area, one would think that would be a potential. But again, I'm not in the room so hard to say what the back and forth is like.

 

[smallspy]

I have been told there is a slight speed restriction through the tunnel, but I don't have any documentation to confirm that.

- Paul

There certainly was one when the UPX service was launched, but I'm pretty sure that they've since lifted it and trains are now allowed to run at the zone speed.

Now, the water-logged area to the east, on the other hand....

Dan
Toronto, Ont.

 

[crs1026]

Since they have not previously been able to convince CN to let them get more trains into Bramalea.......I can't imagine all of those things happening would make CN more open to the idea.....it would seem to me that if that happens, and there is no bypass in the works, and GO is now more desperate to get trains into Bramalea as the only service expansion possible that CN would be even more difficult to deal with.

While the Bramalea fix seems simple, ML wants those additional trains to Kitchener - and all three parties appear to support that in some form. So the larger deal for the Halton and Bypass has to be worked out. I agree, CN is smarter to not entertain the short term Bramalea fix, because that gives away a bit of their leverage for the bigger deal. The Bypass deal has to come first.

CN appears to have been cooperative in moving the Bloomington expansion along. Hamilton GO trains don't get held up unreasonably at Bayview-Aldershot, or on the Halton Sub, or at the Doncaster diamond. The new storage yard at Lewis St was built and opened without fuss, even without the Hamilton track expansion being complete. So, for better or worse, CN has limited its "leverage" to this one zone. So far, CN is not behaving in a way that is universally anti-GO, at least not in the public's view.

There are certainly levers that Ontario could push to pressure CN, but every action has its reaction. ML has to play nice for now.

I wish one could be sure that CN's interest lies in getting a deal with Wynne, before the election. I can understand why CN would press very hard with that in mind. The Bypass is a key Wynne promise, and she needs to show progress. Who knows what sweetener Trudeau and Garneau might offer if Wynne's reelection looked iffy and Kitchener rail service looked like a way to fix that. Brown has endorsed the "connect the tech sector" idea, so CN may feel a deal won't slip away if the government changes.

CN holds a very strong hand, indeed.

- Paul

 

[TOareaFan]

While the Bramalea fix seems simple, ML wants those additional trains to Kitchener

You do realize that could be read as "yeah you >600k people in Brampton the fix to get evening and weekend trains to your town is simple....but what we care about is KW!"....you get that right?

- and all three parties appear to support that in some form. So the larger deal for the Halton and Bypass has to be worked out. I agree, CN is smarter to not entertain the short term Bramalea fix, because that gives away a bit of their leverage for the bigger deal. The Bypass deal has to come first.

The gov't/ML has been out negotiated/maneuvered every step of the way in this corridor....so no reason for that to stop now.

CN appears to have been cooperative in moving the Bloomington expansion along. Hamilton GO trains don't get held up unreasonably at Bayview-Aldershot, or on the Halton Sub, or at the Doncaster diamond. The new storage yard at Lewis St was built and opened without fuss, even without the Hamilton track expansion being complete. So, for better or worse, CN has limited its "leverage" to this one zone. So far, CN is not behaving in a way that is universally anti-GO, at least not in the public's view.

I never once said or suggested that CN is universally anti-GO....what I have consistently pointed out is that in this corridor they have done very well in selling all the parts that they either don't use or use very infrequently. Turning virtually useless assets into cash and still a) maintaining the key bit in the middle which prevents any meaningful increase in those pesky passenger trains and b) per every sale announcement, maintaining running rights even on the parts that have been sold.

What always shocks me in these cases is that a public company gets to make this money and keep the terms (financial and otherwise) of the agreements secret.

There are certainly levers that Ontario could push to pressure CN, but every action has its reaction. ML has to play nice for now.

What are those levers? Why does ML have to "play nice"?

I wish one could be sure that CN's interest lies in getting a deal with Wynne, before the election.

I get why we here on this board, as people with an interest in public transit, would be desirous of a deal with CN....why would we care one way or the other if it happens before or after the election?

I can understand why CN would press very hard with that in mind. The Bypass is a key Wynne promise, and she needs to show progress.

Her promises mean nothing to me....she, and her Minister of Transportation and Minister of Finance, made multiple promises to the people that use this line that were not tied to the bypass.....the heavy concentration on, and conversation around, the bypass is just a way for her to shroud those broken promises in a cloud of "hope for the future".

CN holds a very strong hand, indeed.

- Paul

Yes they do....and their hand got strengthened every time the negotiators on the other side of the table made any deals at all.

 

[crs1026]

You do realize that could be read as "yeah you >600k people in Brampton the fix to get evening and weekend trains to your town is simple....but what we care about is KW!"....you get that right?

My apologies. I was analysing, not advocating My point was that the service all the way across the Halton Sub and beyond is the objective. While Brampton certainly has a pressing need, the political promises have been more blatant towards serving Kitchener.

I never once said or suggested that CN is universally anti-GO....what I have consistently pointed out is that in this corridor they have done very well in selling all the parts that they either don't use or use very infrequently. Turning virtually useless assets into cash and still a) maintaining the key bit in the middle which prevents any meaningful increase in those pesky passenger trains and b) per every sale announcement, maintaining running rights even on the parts that have been sold.

What always shocks me in these cases is that a public company gets to make this money and keep the terms (financial and otherwise) of the agreements secret.

What are those levers? Why does ML have to "play nice"?

I listed those other projects to demonstrate that other things might grind to a halt if CN got very specific pressure from government.

Personally, my hardball strategy would involve things like

• MTO Commercial Vehicle Safety blitzes popping up much more frequently on the roads around the Brampton Intermodal Terminal
• MTO becoming too busy with other projects to complete the roadways that CN needs for the new South Halton Intermodal Terminal
• A whole new set of environmental requirements for the South Halton site

I'm probably down in the weeds, but there are provincial clearances and interfaces that CN needs. Somewhere, the Province could roadblock something of importance to CN. The Intermodal terminal comes to mind.

In spirit it cuts both ways, so if CN makes life hard for ML then Ontario makes life hard for CN - but the problem is there would be road crossings suddenly blocked by freight trains much longer. And less cooperation on other GO projects. Leading to public pressure on the government.

I agree the framework is shocking, but the correction has to come from Ottawa, and I don't see them doing anything about it anytime soon.

I get why we here on this board, as people with an interest in public transit, would be desirous of a deal with CN....why would we care one way or the other if it happens before or after the election?

The only person it matters to is Wynne. I am suggesting she would gain in the election if she could point to a deal. She will not gain much if all she has is a stale promise.

My point was, CN is likely exploiting this, but maybe the leverage works both ways. Once the election passes, the issue could be much lower priority for all pols, (including Wynne, whether she wins or not). If a new government directs ML to abandon the negotiation, CN keeps status quo - but they don't get the windfall Ontario might be willing to offer out of desperation. Brampton (and beyond) loses greatly, but CN loses also.

- Paul

 

[Allandale25]

^ Given GO reps told Waterloo Council that the "Induction Study" [for CN] for the Bypass will be done this month and an EA could begin in the Spring, that could be the last opportunity to see anything public on the Bypass before the election. Voters could then make up their minds. The opposition parties could then have the opportunity to get specific on what they'd do, if they were so inclined.

It'll be interesting to see if the "Induction Study" is made public before there's a Legal Agreement, or it comes after, or it remains a confidential GO-CN document and the EA is where any more detailed drawings for the new tracks and all the bridge, hydro, gas line work become public.

Obviously people on this board will be keen to see any study that involves maps and tracks

 

[Allandale25]

Update/edit: just went back a few pages and saw that DonValleyRainbow posted it. Apologies.

Can't recall in this was posted, but just noticed that Infrastructure Ontario released the winning builder for the 401/409 tunnel. The news release also stated the specific price (is this the first time it's been public?): $116.9 million.

Contract Awarded for Highway 401 Rail Tunnel
December 14, 2017
TORONTO - Infrastructure Ontario (IO) and Metrolinx have awarded a fixed-price contract to Toronto Tunnel Partners (TTP) to design, build and finance the Highway 401 Rail Tunnel project, in support of the province's GO Regional Express Rail (RER) program.

The contract is valued at $116.9 million, which reflects the substantial completion payment.

Members of the TTP team include:

• Applicant Lead: EllisDon Capital Inc. and STRABAG Inc.
• Construction: EllisDon Civil Ltd. and STRABAG Inc.
• Design: WSP Canada Inc., Dr. Sauer & Partners, Amec Foster Wheeler
• Financial Advisor: EllisDon Capital Inc. and STRABAG Inc.

The selection of TTP is the result of an open, fair and competitive procurement process overseen by a third party fairness advisor.

Scope of work for the project includes construction of a new tunnel under Highways 401 and 409 to accommodate two tracks, future signaling and communications infrastructure, and replacing footings of retaining walls that support the ramp from eastbound Highway 409 to eastbound Highway 401.

Construction is scheduled to begin in spring 2018, with an expected substantial completion date for late summer 2021. At the peak of construction, TTP anticipates approximately 50 workers on-site, with the majority coming from the Greater Toronto Area.

Visit here to learn more about the Highway 401 Rail Tunnel project.

Quick Facts:

• The project is being delivered using IO's Alternative Financing and Procurement model, which transfers the appropriate risks associated with design, construction and financing of the project to the private sector.
• Work on the Kitchener GO corridor is part of a larger, system-wide plan to improve overall GO Transit service, including the delivery of Regional Express Rail (RER). GO RER will provide faster and more frequent service across the GO rail network, with electrified service on core segments, including the Union Pearson Express. GO RER is one of the largest transit infrastructure investments in Canada.
• Transit improvements like the delivery of GO RER are part of Ontario's plan to create fairness and opportunity during this period of rapid economic change. The plan includes a higher minimum wage and better working conditions, free tuition for hundreds of thousands of students, easier access to affordable child care, and free prescription drugs for everyone under 25 through the biggest expansion of medicare in a generation.
• Ontario is making the largest infrastructure investment in hospitals, schools, public transit, roads and bridges in the province's history. To learn more about what's happening in your community, visit Ontario.ca/BuildON.

Quotes:

 

[TOareaFan]

My apologies. I was analysing, not advocating My point was that the service all the way across the Halton Sub and beyond is the objective. While Brampton certainly has a pressing need, the political promises have been more blatant towards serving Kitchener.

In the past 2 - 3 years, yes promises have been made to KW.....but a) Brampton (me directly actually) have been having promises made for decades not years and b) not sure what "more blatant" really means but I would suspect there is not much more blatant a promise than in a budget speech.

Like I have said, recently, I really don't give a crap anymore.........I am tired of the fight and accept that I have been lied to by government....but when I see (perhaps unintentional) statements that suggest KW matters more than Brampton...I will rise to the bait

The only person it matters to is Wynne. I am suggesting she would gain in the election if she could point to a deal. She will not gain much if all she has is a stale promise.

oh, ok i was confused by you including that you "wished" you could be sure that CN would deal before the election.

My point was, CN is likely exploiting this, but maybe the leverage works both ways. Once the election passes, the issue could be much lower priority for all pols, (including Wynne, whether she wins or not).

Yes many politicians, particularly the one you mention, seem to place their promises in a lower priority once their election scam has been deemed successful....not sure that is something we should be somehow happy about.

If a new government directs ML to abandon the negotiation, CN keeps status quo - but they don't get the windfall Ontario might be willing to offer out of desperation. Brampton (and beyond) loses greatly, but CN loses also.

- Paul

I think you miss the point here....the status quo is just fine for CN....that is why they are in such a complete control of the situation. In the status quo, they have brought in cash (we don't know how much but it is likely a 9 figure number) selling parts of their network they don't use (or use minimally) and have retained running rights on those parts in case things change and done it in a way that they have retained the key middle bit and are in complete control over how much passenger traffic they have to put up with.

Things can only get better for them.....but the current situation ain't bad.

 

[Allandale25]

Things can only get better for them.....but the current situation ain't bad.

From my reading of Paul's comments, I think he's on the same page with you and agreeing that CN is okay with the status quo. Although I do wonder if they are willing to move forward with the Bypass discussions because it would given them a slightly faster average speed compared to the current routing and they wouldn't have to worry about GO/VIA trains?

 

[TOareaFan]

From my reading of Paul's comments, I think he's on the same page with you and agreeing that CN is okay with the status quo. Although I do wonder if they are willing to move forward with the Bypass discussions because it would given them a slightly faster average speed compared to the current routing and they wouldn't have to worry about GO/VIA trains?

I think they will be willing to move forward if there is also a cash payment to them along with the agreement to move to the new bypass

 

[Allandale25]

In the past 2 - 3 years, yes promises have been made to KW.....but a) Brampton (me directly actually) have been having promises made for decades not years and b) not sure what "more blatant" really means but I would suspect there is not much more blatant a promise than in a budget speech.

I checked the Budget 2016 speech and it wasn't in there but I think as per past discussion here you might be referring to one of the budget 2016 docs where they didn't include the disclaimer from the main budget document.

 

[Allandale25]

I think they will be willing to move forward if there is also a cash payment to them along with the agreement to move to the new bypass

Don't disagree in the slightest. They'll require compensation. I wouldn't even want to try to guess at how they would calculate what they would need or if Metrolinx would do their own attempt at it. I wonder if the value of the asset would come into play, minus any work GO paid for (IE adding a second and third track in places). For example would CN include the cost they bore for the Credit River bridge expansion?

 

[TOareaFan]

I checked the Budget 2016 speech and it wasn't in there but I think as per past discussion here you might be referring to one of the budget 2016 docs where they didn't include the disclaimer from the main budget document.

ok, not in a speech...in a Ontario government publication (web page) that explained the budget.

That promise (plus the one that was made in 2015 about 12 car trains coming by the end of 2017 the Kitchener line) were made in the full knowledge that there could not possibly be a bypass by now....just not physically possible....so if the bypass was part of the asterisk on those promise (real or imagined) then the government was intentionally lying...I guess.

but the point in that reply really was to counter this modern (ie last few years) notion that promises in this corridor are all made to KW and that those are the ones that matter.

Heck we even had a MPP from KW area give a speech at Queens Park last week that said (and I am paraphrasing from memory but I am sure I am not far off) that no one gets on the trains between Kitchener and Malton anyway.

 

[TOareaFan]

Don't disagree in the slightest. They'll require compensation. I wouldn't even want to try to guess at how they would calculate what they would need or if Metrolinx would do their own attempt at it. I wonder if the value of the asset would come into play, minus any work GO paid for (IE adding a second and third track in places). For example would CN include the cost they bore for the Credit River bridge expansion?

it is not a hard calculation.

It goes like this (in the voice of CN) "we want these many millions of dollars in addition the bypass.....if it matters to you, you will pay it. If it doesn't matter, we are fine the way we are....are you?"

There is no reason/need for them to justify their ask in any other manner....they own something the government wants/needs.