reaperexpress
Senior Member
I've mocked up a timetable for the track configuration where there is double track to Barrie with one 3-track segment through Rutherford and Maple stations and it already accommodates half-hourly express trains from Barrie in both directions in addition to 4 local trains per hour. You only need a single overtaking location to accommodate the difference in speed, so there's no need for a 3-track segment at Lawrence.Aspirationally, I totally agree.... but I wonder whether the incremental tweaks to conflicting agendas ie frequency, and closer station spacing have muddled this.
It's a question of a) how far apart stopping trains on 15 minute headways can get before they are overtaken by a following express and b) how those third tracks are utilised to operate express trains in both directions at once. Otherwise the express will mostly happen at peak but the off peak trains will still be all-stops plodders.
Once one assumes 15 minute core 2way service, plus added stations at Caledonia, Bloor, and Liberty, a third track between Steeles and Lawrence is essential - running express all the way to Concord between stopping trains will be an exercise in catching up. The Lawrence-Steeles leg is buildable in the mid term, but interleaving two directional flow will be challenging. Very precise schedule adherence is demanded - lots of other operators achieve this, but it's a new ballgame for ML. .
In this scenario I assumed that the trains to Barrie are diesel and the local trains are electric. This would be the interim condition until electrification makes it all the way to Barrie. The stopping pattern I used for Barrie trains is all stops from Barrie to Newmarket, then limited stops to Union, stopping only at Aurora and stations with a direct subway interchange. There are so many new stations that even with this limited-stop pattern, express trains only stop at one fewer station than the current local trains.
I mocked up two options for the basic off-peak service, one using the passing track and one not. If Option 2 (no scheduled overtake) is chosen, the passing track would act as a plan B in case an express train gets stuck behind a local train due to delays. For example, if the 07:00 train from Barrie gets delayed and arrives at Aurora at 07:59, it can briefly run behind the 07:56 train until Maple where it overtakes it, arriving at Downsview Park at 08:22 with a clear shot to run fast to Union.
Passing track outlined in black. Times in blue are non-stop.
The cost of installing a third track through Rutherford and Maple is negligible given that the underlying structure is already in place - all that's missing is the track itself. There is no need to build three tracks all the way to Barrie.There is also the question of cash flow.... I wonder what priority ML places on a third track and express format on this line as compared to other expansion needs eg Milton, Niagara, added stations. There is only so much money. I would guess that three tracks to Barrie is still a ways down the list.
Perhaps ML has this all modelled out and it looks fine on paper....I'm still a bit dubious from here in the bleachers.
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