[nfitz]

My only guess is is that the $6.2B number is assuming the "full separation of passenger and freight" involves building the Missing Link or something to that scale, which I believe had roughly a ~6B price tag iirc.

The missing link is on the CN line, it's not related to CP operations.

 

[ARG1]

The missing link is on the CN line, it's not related to CP operations.

Part of the hope for the Missing Link (at least from the perspective of cities like Mississauga) is that the CPKC trains could be diverted to share the York Sub with CN, giving full access to the Milton Line and Midtown Line to Metrolinx.

Its worth noting though that as far as I know, this was a hope that was only expressed by local municipalities, and was never claimed as a major selling point by Metrolinx. This is why I added the "or something to that scale" detail since my point was the number used was likely based off some over the top design for a new rail ROW that is at least comparable to the scale of the Missing Link.

 

[Allandale25]

Do we have access to the Initial Business Case mentioned in this letter? I can't seem to find it.

We don't know the year those dollars are in. Perhaps it is a far future estimate, with a construction start after GO Expansion is largely complete?

Regarding land: I'd hope at that price it includes buying half the corridor from CP rather than a long-term lease.

The letter doesn't specify if this is a new IBC. Presumably it is. There was a study done in 2016 for this line and the rest. The study isn't on the Metrolinx website but Steve Munro linked to in in a post and discussed it. I can try to find the post.

Update: see here

GO/RER Details Emerge in Business Case Analysis

Metrolinx has published a set of documents containing the “Initial Business Case” for the GO Transit Regional Express Rail (GO/RER) network. Updated Dec. 13, 2022: Due to a reorganizati…

stevemunro.ca

 

[innsertnamehere]

construction inflation is a b****.

It's 50km of new double-track corridor, presumably electrification, a new flyover, probably a couple of grade-separations (remember those are like $150 million these days), expropriation in pinch points, bridge widenings and reconstructions, rolling stock, station renovations, etc.

Exciting nonetheless as that's 50,000 long distance transit trips daily. GO investments are some of the best the government can make in terms of cost-benefit, and the Milton Line will be extremely heavily used with RER service levels.

 

[Northern Light]

construction inflation is a bitch.

It's 50km of new double-track corridor, presumably electrification, a new flyover, probably a couple of grade-separations (remember those are like $150 million these days), expropriation in pinch points, bridge widenings and reconstructions, rolling stock, station renovations, etc.

I'm not aware of previous iterations of this proposal affecting 50km of track.

Generally 2WAD was proposed to run to somewhere between Erindale to Lisgar.

I was privy to some of the previous estimates, and I can't wrap my head around 6B, construction inflation or not. Have to see what's in this estimate. The suggestion above by @rbt that it might involve corridor acquisition from CP (ownership as opposed to running rights) may be a partial explainer, TBD.

@ARG1 may also be on to something.

Whatever the case, 'simple' filling out of missing sections of third/fourth track doesn't add up to 6B for me.

 

[innsertnamehere]

I'm not aware of previous iterations of this proposal affecting 50km of track.

Generally 2WAD was proposed to run to somewhere between Erindale to Lisgar.

I was privy to some of the previous estimates, and I can't wrap my head around 6B, construction inflation or not. Have to see what's in this estimate. The suggestion above by @rbt that it might involve corridor acquisition from CP (ownership as opposed to running rights) may be a partial explainer, TBD.

@ARG1 may also be on to something.

Whatever the case, 'simple' filling out of missing sections of third/fourth track doesn't add up to 6B for me.

Judging from the press release the PCs are interested in running it to Milton.

It's definitely higher than I've heard in the past, but I also think it depends on the scope that CPKC is requiring. The way that Metrolinx is doing the Bowmanville extension is a 100% dedicated parallel corridor. I don't think earlier studies on Milton assumed that, but instead assumed additional tracks mixing with CPKC operations, and I also don't think it assumed electrification, etc.

I could see it hitting $6b if the province is looking to build a double-track dedicated parallel corridor from the Junction to Milton. That's a lot of bridge widenings, flyovers, station upgrades, track grading, retaining walls, probably a few grade separations, etc.

 

[Northern Light]

and I also don't think it assumed electrification, etc.

Previous designs for upgrades in the Milton Corridor definitely did not include electrification.

 

[Allandale25]

^ I think they did for the "Scenario 4 (Full Build)" because it mentions "EMUBL4" and "EMUBL8". This is from the Appendix A-J referecned in the Steve Munro link above.

 

[Northern Light]

^ I think they did for the "Scenario 4 (Full Build)" because it mentions "EMUBL4" and "EMUBL8". This is from the Appendix A-J referecned in the Steve Munro link above.

Fair; I should rephrase; the plans I had seen advance to pre-funding, in the past, did not contemplate electrification.

 

[crs1026]

Without getting too granular.... at a birds-eye view, upgrading the Galt Sub includes a flyover, one- or two- track new bridges over a number of pretty significant waterways, widening the row through areas where housing sits very close to the property line,.... not to mention cutting through central Streetsville, and requiring some major grade separations. So while I may not be able to make things add up to $6B, the Milton line 2WAD is a very major proposition.

Those who have been incensed by the lack of interest in the Milton line may now understand what stood in the way.... very few politicians would have the expertise to test or challenge the details of the price tag, but once they heard it was this high I'm sure it gave most of them sticker shock.

- Paul

 

[Krypto98]

Part of the hope for the Missing Link (at least from the perspective of cities like Mississauga) is that the CPKC trains could be diverted to share the York Sub with CN, giving full access to the Milton Line and Midtown Line to Metrolinx. View attachment 539120
Its worth noting though that as far as I know, this was a hope that was only expressed by local municipalities, and was never claimed as a major selling point by Metrolinx. This is why I added the "or something to that scale" detail since my point was the number used was likely based off some over the top design for a new rail ROW that is at least comparable to the scale of the Missing Link.

Good luck with that CN - CP connection at Humber/Woodbridge... the CN grades there are already close to 1% going in and out of the valley, add in going even further down in elevation for the CP track and you are talking maybe 2% grades. Also good luck getting CN and CP to share track that close to CN BIT yard and Macyard.

 

[Toronto1834]

Glad to see the above, but would note, with amusement, that the previous Federal Transportation Minister publicly offered the Ford gov't a 50/50 partnership and 500M to upgrade Milton, which the Ford gov't ignored.

So has there been any planning/engineering work going on since the Feds' offer or have Milton Line improvements been completely stalled for 2+ years?

 

[Allandale25]

The former federal transportation minister weighs in a thread here...

Glad to finally see a commitment from the Ontario government on this. One of the first things I worked on when I became Minister of Transport is to reach out to the Gov of Ontario and Metrolinx and advocate for a two-way, all-day GO service on the Milton line….

An estimate of $1 to $1.2 Billion was given by Metrolinx. I obtained financial approval from the federal government to partner to make this project a reality. When I was ready to announce the federal government’s support, I invited the Ontario gov to join but they declined.

The estimate presented today is suspiciously 6 times higher than what was originally estimated but it’s good to see that Ontario is willing to move forward. The people of Peel and Milton will benefit greatly. Let’s make it happen[.]

 

[Bojaxs]

Good luck with that CN - CP connection at Humber/Woodbridge... the CN grades there are already close to 1% going in and out of the valley, add in going even further down in elevation for the CP track and you are talking maybe 2% grades. Also good luck getting CN and CP to share track that close to CN BIT yard and Macyard.

Yep. The missing link only makes sense for CN. CN will never let CPKC trains that close to their yards. It would impede their operations. Plus the Goreway bridge is currently being constructed, and only being made wide enough for CN tracks. The best option for CPKC is to divert their mainline around Brampton and connect to their Intermodal yard in Vaughan from the west.

 

[Smlgucci]

Without getting too granular.... at a birds-eye view, upgrading the Galt Sub includes a flyover, one- or two- track new bridges over a number of pretty significant waterways, widening the row through areas where housing sits very close to the property line,.... not to mention cutting through central Streetsville, and requiring some major grade separations. So while I may not be able to make things add up to $6B, the Milton line 2WAD is a very major proposition.

Those who have been incensed by the lack of interest in the Milton line may now understand what stood in the way.... very few politicians would have the expertise to test or challenge the details of the price tag, but once they heard it was this high I'm sure it gave most of them sticker shock.

- Paul

Practically speaking, what might grade separation works in Streetsville actually look like? I’m counting four at-grade crossings: Mississauga Road, Thomas, Tannery, and Ontario St.

Are we talking tunnelling? An overpass? There’s not a lot of distance between the GO platform and Mississauga Rd, nor Thomas.