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Redroom Studios said:
loved this quote from Smitherman in the article!: “I don’t know who Forum Research is, maybe that is Rocco’s new polling company,†Smitherman said. “I haven’t met anybody putting up their hand saying they want more politics. This notion of recall is about the perpetual election cycle, it’s California politics brought to Ontario and Toronto and it hasn’t worked very well there.â€

and he's right, the recall thing could easily get out of hand and cause chaos in city government. If anybody does anything really bad, there is always the legal system to deal with it...
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I agree with you!! I think 4 years is not a hell of a lot of time to implement new policies or change much in a city. If we have elections every 2 years then councilors will never have the balls to step up and make the tough (but good) decisions, since they'll fear being ousted out of office prematurely. It's another one of Rossi's silly ideas (this, along with the selling-off of valuable assets...). If you don't like an elected official, vote them out of office after 4 years. But give them the chance go make an impact.
 
I think Dave Meslin makes a good point as to why Rossi's idea makes no sense. Under our system, you can "win" an election with 35% of the vote, but if you only receive 35% in a recall vote you lose.
 
GenerationW said:
If Thomson without a base of political volunteers is dead at 14%, then Pantalone with a base of volunteers must be even deader at 11%.
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For some reason (and maybe extrapolating from her inept performance at the heritage debate), this idea has dawned on me today: I wouldn't be surprised if Thomson suspends her campaign on behalf of Rocco Rossi--they're both basically occupying common "John Tory proxy" ground, anyway, to the point where it wouldn't take much for Tory's offspring to jump from Thomson onto the Rossi bandwagon, esp. if the likes of Warren Kinsella mean business...
 
I've had a little insider insight into Thomson's campaign and I can tell you with near certainty: she will go right into election day, even if she were to be polling @ 0.5%. She has the money and a lineup of impressive endorsements. One of them is John Tory himself. He may have to wait until closer to the election to pronounce his endorsement because he's mediating debates and he can't be seen as partial to a candidate.

If anything, Rossi is the one who has no clear guarantee on campaign funding. If he keeps polling low, he's going to find his supporters migrating to other candidates and he'll be a helpless observer as his campaign will simply be shut down for lack of money.

As I'm seeing it, I'm going to predict that Smitherman and Sarah Thomson are going to be fighting it out for the spot as Ford challenger from the centre. Pants will stay in the race 'till the end as well because he's the only flag bearer for the left and has a guaranteed minimum 25%.

The fact that 3 candidates have the money and/or support to stay until the end is good news for Ford because they'll split the non Ford vote.
 
I disagree. I think Rossi has financial backing from some very serious people and a long record in public life. Hard to see how he is a less viable candidate than Thomson. I would also be shocked to see John Tory endorse anybody, given the fact that he will have to work with whomever wins at TCSA.

Similarly, Pantalone at 25 percent? Seriously? I think if anything Smitherman is going to become the left's guy. Campaigning from the right as he seemed to be doing earlier didn't make much sense. he is a natural representative of Toronto's giant progressive bloc, and seems to be beginning to occupy that role as Rossi and Ford compete on the right.

I am also interested by the numbers for Ford in latest poll. He seems to have an irreducible base of 30 or 35 percent of decided voters, give or take. It isn't shrinking but it isn't growing, either. With such a large group of undecideds, that could be bad news for him.

But as usual, who knows. early days yet.
 
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You guys realize that polls mean very little right? Just because someone today says they support X doesn't mean they won't vote Y if X is perceived to not have a great chance of winning. One only has to look at Green/NDP support compared to their final tallies in many elections. For example, in the last election the Greens had 11% support in the polls the day before the election yet only wound up with half that.

The fact is, when it comes time to placing your ballot, you either vote for or vote against someone. I'd say people vote strategically quite a bit, especially in ridings where their candidate of choice has no chance. It's one of the biggest problems with our FPTP system.
 
jn_12 said:
You guys realize that polls mean very little right? Just because someone today says they support X doesn't mean they won't vote Y if X is perceived to not have a great chance of winning. One only has to look at Green/NDP support compared to their final tallies in many elections. For example, in the last election the Greens had 11% support in the polls the day before the election yet only wound up with half that.

The fact is, when it comes time to placing your ballot, you either vote for or vote against someone. I'd say people vote strategically quite a bit, especially in ridings where their candidate of choice has no chance. It's one of the biggest problems with our FPTP system.
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Actually if you take a look at historical polls - say for Canadian and American federal elections, I think they're usually fairly accurate no - not for small players like the Green party but for large ones ... usually it's pretty accurate in predicting who's going to win - maybe not so much the exact percentage.
 
Municipal politics is quite different, specially because the chain of party loyalty aren't so heavy. I too believe that the candidates polling 3rd and below are going to lose a lot of their supporters right at the ballot box. I know for myself, that if my current choices Pantalone or Thomson are too far away from winning that I will switch to whoever has the best chance at preventing Ford from becoming Mayor.
 
Polls are useful indicators and in a two-party race they tend to be accurate predictors. But in tight races with multiple candidates, everything is up in the air. Pantalone, Rossi and Thomson at 15, 11 and 9 (or whatever) means very little when the margin of error is nearly 5%.
 
A lot of the current surveys are of the "who do you want to be mayor of Toronto" type. I would ask three questions:

  1. Who do you want to be the next mayor of Toronto?
  2. Who do you NOT want to be the next mayor of Toronto?
  3. Strategically, who would you vote for as mayor of Toronto, so that 2. does not get in?
 
taal said:
Actually if you take a look at historical polls - say for Canadian and American federal elections, I think they're usually fairly accurate no - not for small players like the Green party but for large ones ... usually it's pretty accurate in predicting who's going to win - maybe not so much the exact percentage.
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As Metroman said, there's a big difference between party-based elections and non-party-based elections. In Sept. 2003, Hall was the clear cut polling favourite only to fall dramatically in the following two months. When you're voting for people that you have no long-standing loyalty to (unlike one might have for a party), you're far more likely to be swayed. I just used the greens example because the information was readily available, but that does prove another point: people will consider voting against someone if they perceive that it is in their best interest, whether they are loyal or not.
 
Some of the mayoral candidates will be on The Agenda tonight at 8 pm, debating. Live I think.

The good news is that TVO is now available in HD and widescreen. Though perhaps seeing these candidates in HD is not good news ...
 
MetroMan said:
I've had a little insider insight into Thomson's campaign and I can tell you with near certainty: she will go right into election day, even if she were to be polling @ 0.5%.
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That almost tells me that she's simply looking for name reconition and perhaps alterior motives when you're poling 0.5%.

Why drag your fundraisers and volunteers through a futile mission?

FYI, sure sign of lack of funds is a lack of campaign office. Councillors across the city have opened one, yet the Mayoral candidate doesn't have one?

Nice lady, but just pointing out the obvious.
 
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