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Very unscientific, but it's what we got while we wait for a real poll. The OneStop poll:

Ford : 27%

Thomson : 23%

Pantalone : 18%

Rossi : 17%

Smitherman : 15%

Funny, that's how I hoped (within realistic confines) the next poll would look like. Of course, I'd love to see Rob Ford at the bottom but within realistic expectations, I'd like to see Thomson and Pantalone become the challengers to Ford.
 
New polls coming tomorrow. Anyone care to share predictions? I am going to bet on a very tight spread between Ford, Rossi, and Smitherman--eg all three around 20 percent of decided voters. Some Twitter spinners have been hinting at big shifts in the picture and perhaps this is what they mean.
 
The roaster is final so we'll begin to see the undecideds being distributed. I believe that a significant number of them were waiting for a white horse to come into the race to save them from the right. Pants has the most to gain from this. Rob Ford the least.

I also think that Pantalone's positive message is going to draw some people. Rossi's über-Pro-Car stance and his recall and term limits announcements will resonate with Ford's base. Thomson has been improving her ability to sell herself so I think she'll gain as well. Smitherman had already stagnated, in fact he has steadily been losing support and I haven't seen anything since the last poll to have changed that tide.

Ford and Smitherman will be the big losers of this new poll and I can actually imagine a scenario where Ford will have lost his first place crown or at least be in a statistical tie with #2.

Given my latest assessment, I'm going to revise my poll prediction to:

1 - Ford
2 - Pantalone
3 - Smitherman
4 - Rossi
5 - Thomson
 
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adma said:
Uh...do they? "The other highways", I mean? Like, I see an awful lot of equally "wasted area" (due to single-family housing, industry, etc) along said "other highways".

And on the whole, maybe it's better to be momentarily "wasted area" a la the East Gardiner than to be execrable condo chaos a la the Motel Strip--then again, if you're in the Ford camp, you're probably an urban philistine, so it means little to you...
Click to expand...

Huh? Either you guys want to develop waterfront or not, make up your mind. The Gardiner does not hinder either Condos or "wasted area". (Yes, having industry on the waterfront is a waste unless you want to dump waste water directly into the lake. While you are at it, why not build a car factory on top of the CN tower). Rob Ford probably wouldn't care as long as you don't waste the money to do studies upon studies or build a highway and then stop in the middle of nowhere.
 
Torontovibe said:
I'd love to see the East Gardiner come down too.

On another note, I saw a commercial on CFTO news, saying they will release a new poll on Sunday at 6pm. It will be interesting to see if anything changes. I can't wait.
Click to expand...

Why do you love to see the East Gardiner come down? Public policies should have good reasons, especially when it costs millions of dollars. "I'd love to" doesn't really cut it. For example, I'd love to see you pay $9 billion into the city to cover its budget, but that's probably not going to happen.
 
MetroMan said:
The roaster is final so we'll begin to see the undecideds being distributed. I believe that a significant number of them were waiting for a white horse to come into the race to save them from the right. Pants has the most to gain from this. Rob Ford the least.

I also think that Pantalone's positive message is going to draw some people. Rossi's über-Pro-Car stance and his recall and term limits announcements will resonate with Ford's base. Thomson has been improving her ability to sell herself so I think she'll gain as well. Smitherman had already stagnated, in fact he has steadily been losing support and I haven't seen anything since the last poll to have changed that tide.

Ford and Smitherman will be the big losers of this new poll and I can actually imagine a scenario where Ford will have lost his first place crown or at least be in a statistical tie with #2.

Given my latest assessment, I'm going to revise my poll prediction to:

1 - Ford
2 - Pantalone
3 - Smitherman
4 - Rossi
5 - Thomson
Click to expand...

Not sure what's the point of doing such prediction.

I also think Rob Ford is a jerk and I don't think he can get anything done with a left leaning council. However, the city is angry and justified or not, you can't just dismiss such anger. In the end, this election is going to be a battle of anger and fear.
 
archanfel said:
However, the city is angry and justified or not, you can't just dismiss such anger. In the end, this election is going to be a battle of anger and fear.
Click to expand...

It's not the entire city that is angry. It's only about 30% or so but that might be all the support he will need depending how the other candidates shake out. It seems to me that the type of person that is angry about something generic like "waste" and "poor spending" will always be angry no matter what happens. It will be there for their whole life. I know this because my grandfather is like this. Always angry about something that the government/mayor/politicians are doing.. and he is voting for Ford.
If Ford gets in though then he will be angry at him too.
 
ladyscraper said:
It's not the entire city that is angry. It's only about 30% or so but that might be all the support he will need depending how the other candidates shake out. It seems to me that the type of person that is angry about something generic like "waste" and "poor spending" will always be angry no matter what happens. It will be there for their whole life. I know this because my grandfather is like this. Always angry about something that the government/mayor/politicians are doing.. and he is voting for Ford.
If Ford gets in though then he will be angry at him too.
Click to expand...

Even if it's only 30% (which it's not), it s a lot of people, you can not just dismiss them as "always angry". Canada got a right wing government, didn't we? In fact, I would say a lot of people in the province is angry with the liberals and the anger in the US is propelling the Tea Party candidates. A lot of the anger is misdirected since we simply do not have many genuine small government politicians anymore. Tea Party candidates are just using the anger and I suspect they would create even larger deficits (just take a look at Harper). However, the anger itself is genuine because the direction Toronto is going (i.e. big government, big unions, spiral costs) is simply unacceptable to a lot of people.
 
jn_12 said:
Yet, if Miller was running, he'd win. People can't be that angry.
Click to expand...

How do you know? Paul Martin lost, didn't he? Never underestimate the anger.

Plus, he is not running. If you want to make this kind of wild speculation, then I doubt he could beat John Tory if Tory was running, not that I like John Tory any better.
 
archanfel said:
Not sure what's the point of doing such prediction.

I also think Rob Ford is a jerk and I don't think he can get anything done with a left leaning council. However, the city is angry and justified or not, you can't just dismiss such anger. In the end, this election is going to be a battle of anger and fear.
Click to expand...

The question is, will it be a left leaning council? If it's not, then Ford may end up getting the support he needs. Which would be the worst possible scenario.
 
MetroMan,

I really doubt your projections, let's see what the 6pm CFTO poll reveals.
But at least you will go out on a limb. I appreciate that.

I will go out on a limb, too ... a candidate or two will chime "Ford would put the Hog back in Hogtown".

On a more serious note, regardless of what Sarah says, some of the lower polling candidates will withdraw; I believe that she is in this race only for name recognition. I also doubt that Pantalone could win or end up even second place.

Lastly (for now) I seriously believe that the big journals of this town will do their bit to inform of the dangers of Fordism, along the lines of " someone who runs his own affairs poorly should be trusted with the city ??? "
 
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TonyV said:
Lastly (for now) I seriously believe that the big journals of this town will do their bit to inform of the dangers of Fordism, along the lines of " someone who runs his own affairs poorly should be trusted with the city ??? "
Click to expand...
Both the Star and Sun seem to be doing that.

With even the Sun trashing Ford on a regular basis, I'll predict that Ford will continue to slide in the polls.
 
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