[MetroMan]

If Fords numbers remained in the 30s I wouldn't be worried. It's that he's actually impoving his support despite universal negative press and his lack of legitimate policy that worries me. If he continues to lead into October he will just cruise to the finish line.

As for endorsements, John Tory has been pondering whether to make his endorsement public because he wants to remain a neutral voice on his radio show and avoid a conflict of interest when he mediates upcoming debates. He supports Sarah Thomson.

 

[archanfel]

People can dream, can't they? (or do we need a permit for that too?)

You think it would cost 9 BILLION to tear down the east part of the Gardiner? Really? I find that hard to believe.

I want the Gardiner down for 2 main reasons. Firstly I hate to walk under it and secondly I think it limits the ability to make the waterfront a great place, especially near the Don River where it runs right beside the water. It's ugly as hell, noisy, unpleasant and I hope it comes down and is replaced with something really impressive. Sherbourne Commons will be the start of building impressive structures on the waterfront and I want to see more of that bold, iconic kind of design. Sherbourne park, as far as I can see, will be something really special. I've never seen anything like it before. When you open up the waterfront to new ideas, wonderful, transformative things can happen. I guess I'm a dreamer, in a world of status quo people.

Tear down the ugly and bring on the iconic.

Thank you for the reply. No, I didn't think it was going to cost 9 billion. I was referring to Toronto's total budget and being sarcastic.

Now, I disagree with you. For your first reason, I walk/bike under the Gardiner all the time and I see nothing wrong with it. I guess we all have different tastes. For your second reason, the entire DVP runs along Don River and it's not all that pretty either (although I like it), why targeting the Gardiner? Also, it's not right on the waterfront. It's only a channel. You have to go down to the end of Cherry street to get to the waterfront. North Shore Park is not well developed and it's full of garbage dumps and industry site. I'd think that should have higher priority than tearing down the Gardiner. Now, I wouldn't have a problem if they were to build a new section over the top of the railway to link DVP and Gardiner and move the ramp away from the water, but destroying a highway without a proper replacement is not the responsible thing to do.

As for Sherborne, the Gardiner is pretty far from the waterfront over there. The Queens Quay is not developed for some reason, but I don't think the Gardiner is the reason. The Gardiner impacts the area north of there, but the railroad is also there. I doubt you can cut the railroad. I am also not sure about "impressive structures". Whatever is built has to be cost effective.

 

[archanfel]

The question is, will it be a left leaning council? If it's not, then Ford may end up getting the support he needs. Which would be the worst possible scenario.

If I said it wouldn't be a left leaning council, then I would be the one who is dreaming.

 

[allabootmatt]

Speculation on tonight's poll is becoming increasingly outlandish, with The Star now saying the 'rumour mill' has Ford possibly above 50 percent. I simply don't see how that's possible. Guess we will find out soon enough.

 

[lafard]

We keep saying. It's NOT the gardiner that is the problem. It's the mass of ramps and roads and traffic lights along Lake Shore that are the problem. They're straight out of the 1960s when they didn't ever forsee anyone wanting to walk under the Gardiner, and it's that pedestrian realm which is so hostile. The Gardiner itself is relatively innocuous. If it was just bare dirt or construction rubble under there I doubt anybody would even consider removing it because most of us know that bringing that much traffic to street level is far worse than a simple overpass. Particularly one that could be cosmetically improved fairly easily and cheaply (put some white cladding on the underside and keep it clean... and plant some shade-tolerant ground cover vegetation)

Seriously though, walking from Front to Queens Quay on Yonge, Bay, York, Spadina... the railway line is relatively harmless and easy to get across, and the spadina overpass is not unpleasant at all. Then you have to cross Lake Shore where pedestrians are a mere afterthought, shoehored onto traffic islands that were never meant for peds and thwarted by signal timings that very heavily favour cars. Bringing it down to the surface offers the opportunity to rebuild the pedestrian realm but also brings more traffic down to level crossings.

Edit: re the polls:

I honestly don't know what to expect. I think Ford might be losing momentum, but that was known months ago as his vote base materialized immediately and I doubt he'll get a substantial number of "undecideds"; he had a very strong start but not a lot of space for continued upward momentum. He might have even lost some of his core support thanks to the streetcar thing.

I expect the undecided fence-sitters are a far bigger faction than they were a few weeks back. I get the sense that Smitherman is no longer the default second choice and people are starting to actually think about it. Rossi's a write-off, Pants and Thomson will be up, and Smitherman will be drifting around.

 

[archanfel]

We keep saying. It's NOT the gardiner that is the problem. It's the mass of ramps and roads and traffic lights along Lake Shore that are the problem. They're straight out of the 1960s when they didn't ever forsee anyone wanting to walk under the Gardiner, and it's that pedestrian realm which is so hostile. The Gardiner itself is relatively innocuous. If it was just bare dirt or construction rubble under there I doubt anybody would even consider removing it because most of us know that bringing that much traffic to street level is far worse than a simple overpass. Particularly one that could be cosmetically improved fairly easily and cheaply (put some white cladding on the underside and keep it clean... and plant some shade-tolerant ground cover vegetation)

Seriously though, walking from Front to Queens Quay on Yonge, Bay, York, Spadina... the railway line is relatively harmless and easy to get across, and the spadina overpass is not unpleasant at all. Then you have to cross Lake Shore where pedestrians are a mere afterthought, shoehored onto traffic islands that were never meant for peds and thwarted by signal timings that very heavily favour cars. Bringing it down to the surface offers the opportunity to rebuild the pedestrian realm but also brings more traffic down to level crossings.

How is having more cars competing with pedestrians a good thing? If that's really the argument, I would say we should expand the Gardiner and move all traffic up there. I think rebuilding the pedestrian crossing is probably a good idea. We also should lower the speed limit on the lake shore. Currently, the problem is that Gardiner is always jammed so lake shore became a mini-highway. Removing the Gardiner would only make things worse.

 

[MetroMan]

Speculation on tonight's poll is becoming increasingly outlandish, with The Star now saying the 'rumour mill' has Ford possibly above 50 percent. I simply don't see how that's possible. Guess we will find out soon enough.

That does indeed sound outlandish. I don't see how Ford could have such a massive lead. Half of Toronto is not that extremist.

However, somebody from the Smitherman camp has confirmed that Ford has in fact improved his lead over their candidate. I'm very curious to see what the poll says. I think it'll be a call to action by the centre and left to get behind a single candidate. I could see major players in city politics and business circles coming together in a meeting and choosing either Smitherman, Pantalone or Thomson to lead the charge.

If Ford does show a 50% lock on the polls, the only candidate that could beat him is the one proposing his kind of U-Turn policies: Rocco Rossi.

 

[Towered]

If Ford wins this election, it will reflect the ultimate, complete failure of amalgamation.

 

[MetroMan]

Towered, I was thinking that as well. The needs of old Toronto don't necessarily coincide with the outer city. I think this election really is about Downtown VS Outer city. Election results will show this very clearly I believe.

Somebody on Twitter brought up something worth looking in to: Are polls only conducted on people with landlines? I believe they are because demographics and location are based on that. If so, won't the polls be missing out on entire sectors of the voting population? I've never had a landline in all my adult life, and I know that very few of my friends have one also.

 

[lafard]

Towered, I was thinking that as well. The needs of old Toronto don't necessarily coincide with the outer city. I think this election really is about Downtown VS Outer city. Election results will show this very clearly I believe.

Somebody on Twitter brought up something worth looking in to: Are polls only conducted on people with landlines? I believe they are because demographics and location are based on that. If so, won't the polls be missing out on entire sectors of the voting population? I've never had a landline in all my adult life, and I know that very few of my friends have one also.

Yes, it's only landlines. They're missing pretty much everybody under 40, and downtown yuppies - those likely to vote against Ford- are heavily underrepresented.

If they called cells as well the results would be even more skewed - how many 905ers have 416/647 cell numbers?

 

[GraphicMatt]

A Ford win would be the civic equivalent of letting a child touch the stove. Sometimes people need to get burnt to understand why things are bad.

I have no doubt that a post-Ford mayor would be one of the best Toronto has ever had.

 

[MetroMan]

^ We already had that lesson: Mel Lastman. Subsequently, Miller was one of the best Mayors Toronto ever had.

 

[GraphicMatt]

Yeah, and it's depressing to think we might have to cycle back through it again.

Politicians who talk only about how incompetent government is tend to make for self-fulfilling prophecies.

 

[MetroMan]

In light of mounting confirmation that Ford has increased his lead, I'm hoping for a climb in support for Rossi, a decline in support for Smitherman and either Thomson or Pantalone emerging as a a sensible candidate to lead the Anti-Ford charge. Smitherman has proven himself incapable of defeating Ford and Rossi will siphon some of his supporters. I think a Thomson or Pants + Rossi combo can defeat Ford.

 

[nfitz]

The key will be the undecided.

The last poll in August was the Forum Research poll that was 34% Ford, but undecided was 33%. if you include the undecided then Ford was 23%
The Toronto Star (Angus Reid) poll the previous week was 42% Ford, but 28% undecided ... including the undecided, Ford was 30%. Just before that was the National Post poll which had Ford at 41%, but undecided was only 21%, giving Ford 32% of the total vote.

The biggest gainer in August polls was undecided. Ford's actual support reduced each poll.

Are a significant percentage of the undecided Ford voters, or are they generally opposed to him? That will be the key.