MetroMan
Senior Member
G&M is saying the Nanos poll is going to be "mind blowing". We can interpret that as Ford having a huge lead (the rumoured 51%) or a complete mixup of other candidates' positions in the poll.
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Torontovibe
Senior Member
If Ford is going over 50% with the momentum behind him, would he not be unstoppable? How can you reverse that in just over a month? Just when you think you understand Toronto and the values of its people, something comes along to challenge your perceptions. Maybe Toronto is not as liberal minded as we all thought. Maybe this city has just lost its mind, including all its common sense. Oh well, at least we'll have lots to bitch about and laugh at, for the next four years, besides one another. (looking on the bright side, if there is one)
I was expecting to wake up to the poll in one of the newspapers but I don't see it. I'm kind of on pins & needles.
I was expecting to wake up to the poll in one of the newspapers but I don't see it. I'm kind of on pins & needles.
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nfitz
Superstar
Here's a link to Toronto Star's report of the rumour - http://thestar.blogs.com/thegoods/2...rack-to-victory-at-51-per-cent-of-voters.html
(The Star's rumour about the Gliobe poll ... is this what it's come to?)
If the reports are true, it could be an interesting couple of weeks. Again, the undecided is the key. I don't think any previous poll has shown Ford's support among total voters (as opposed to decided voters) was bigger than 32%; this is the number to watch.
Another key is the distribution of his support, given that turnout can be much higher for wards in the older city, compared to the suburbs.
(The Star's rumour about the Gliobe poll ... is this what it's come to?)
If the reports are true, it could be an interesting couple of weeks. Again, the undecided is the key. I don't think any previous poll has shown Ford's support among total voters (as opposed to decided voters) was bigger than 32%; this is the number to watch.
Another key is the distribution of his support, given that turnout can be much higher for wards in the older city, compared to the suburbs.
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Irishmonk
Senior Member
Personally, I'm just really distressed over the increasing likelihood that we're going to be stuck with this clown as our mayor for 4 years. I really love this city and to have it threatened by a mostly ill-formed mass of anti-city, anti-culture whiners--people who simply don't give a rat's ass about the things that make up a rich, diverse, thriving city--is tragic.
So much care, effort, money and love has gone into this town over the past 7 years and now it may be derailed by the kind of people who write letters to the Sun saying how much they hate Toronto. All I can say is, if you love Toronto get out there and vote for whoever is in 2nd place on voting day. (Assuming of course that Ford is still in the lead!)
So much care, effort, money and love has gone into this town over the past 7 years and now it may be derailed by the kind of people who write letters to the Sun saying how much they hate Toronto. All I can say is, if you love Toronto get out there and vote for whoever is in 2nd place on voting day. (Assuming of course that Ford is still in the lead!)
Torontovibe
Senior Member
Are these guys for real? What do they have to hide? No wonder Ford is doing so well, this plays right into his hands.
Kelly Grant City Hall Bureau Chief
From Friday's Globe and Mail
Published on Friday, Sep. 17, 2010 3:00AM EDT
Last updated on Friday, Sep. 17, 2010 5:33AM EDT
In a race dominated by the themes of financial accountability and transparency at city hall, three of the leading contenders for the mayor’s chain are refusing to reveal before voting day who is funding their campaigns.
George Smitherman, Rocco Rossi and Sarah Thomson intend to keep their donor lists a secret until the law requires them to disclose the names more than five months after election day, The Globe and Mail has learned.
The holdouts aren’t breaking any rules, but they are deviating from a practice that has become the norm in mega-city elections. In 2006 and 2003, the top candidates for mayor disclosed their contribution lists before ballots were cast.
“I think they’re behind the curve on their understanding of voters’ interest in this,” said Robert MacDermid, a York University professor and municipal campaign finance expert. “If we could poll people on this issue, I think we would find a large majority in favour of telling people where the money comes from before the election happens. I think maybe these three candidates haven’t appreciated that.”
David Miller and Jane Pitfield revealed their donor lists before the 2006 election. Mr. Miller, Barbara Hall and John Tory all did so in 2003.
This time, the Joe Pantalone and Rob Ford campaigns are the only ones planning to release their lists early so voters can follow the money.
However, Mr. Ford doesn’t appear to have given the issue much thought.
“I have no idea about that. I can’t remember discussing that so I can’t comment on that ... this is something [that’s] news to me,” Mr. Ford said, after a spokeswoman for his campaign told The Globe in a separate interview that the campaign intends to release its list before Oct. 25.
“Rob Ford has talked about transparency and accountability at city hall,” Adrienne Batra said. “This is one way he can demonstrate to the voters that he wants to be accountable and put his money where his mouth is.”
Elections Toronto requires all 2010 candidates to submit a final financial report by March 25, 2011, including the names and addresses of everyone who contributed $100 or more to their campaign. Contributors’ names are posted online. The maximum donation to a mayoral candidate is $2,500.
Corporate and union donations are banned for the first time in this race, although Mr. Miller and Ms. Pitfield refused gifts from both before voting day in 2006.
The three candidates who don’t plan to voluntarily disclose all offered different reasons for their decision.
A spokeswoman for the Smitherman campaign declined to explain why. “We are going to comply with the law on disclosing our donors,” Erika Mozes said in an e-mail. “I know some of the other candidates may have told you that they are going to release donors and make a big deal of it ... at this time this is all I have to say on it.”
Ms. Thomson said voluntary disclosure would be tantamount to using her donors to “promote myself.”
“I think people should be voting on policy and whether they think the candidate can do the job,” she said. “It’s not about who’s most popular.”
Bernie Morton, the veteran Conservative operative who took over Mr. Rossi’s campaign in August, said it wouldn’t be fair to donors to release their names without having warned them before they contributed.
“Honesty, openness and integrity would have [required] me to say to people originally, ‘when you donate to this campaign, your name will be released by the campaign to the media as a donor,’” he said. “In the absence of giving full disclosure about that from the onset, you can’t do it. I wouldn’t do that now.”
Still, Mr. Rossi would have been well aware of the issue before he registered in January and started raking in donations – he was campaign manager for Mr. Tory in 2003, when the former Rogers chief executive released a roster of 2,265 individual contributors and 462 corporate donors one week before the election.
“I’m perplexed at why it would make much difference before or after,” Prof. MacDermid said. “They [donors] know that their names are going to be made public afterward if they contributed more than $100. What difference would it make?”
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Kelly Grant City Hall Bureau Chief
From Friday's Globe and Mail
Published on Friday, Sep. 17, 2010 3:00AM EDT
Last updated on Friday, Sep. 17, 2010 5:33AM EDT
In a race dominated by the themes of financial accountability and transparency at city hall, three of the leading contenders for the mayor’s chain are refusing to reveal before voting day who is funding their campaigns.
George Smitherman, Rocco Rossi and Sarah Thomson intend to keep their donor lists a secret until the law requires them to disclose the names more than five months after election day, The Globe and Mail has learned.
The holdouts aren’t breaking any rules, but they are deviating from a practice that has become the norm in mega-city elections. In 2006 and 2003, the top candidates for mayor disclosed their contribution lists before ballots were cast.
“I think they’re behind the curve on their understanding of voters’ interest in this,” said Robert MacDermid, a York University professor and municipal campaign finance expert. “If we could poll people on this issue, I think we would find a large majority in favour of telling people where the money comes from before the election happens. I think maybe these three candidates haven’t appreciated that.”
David Miller and Jane Pitfield revealed their donor lists before the 2006 election. Mr. Miller, Barbara Hall and John Tory all did so in 2003.
This time, the Joe Pantalone and Rob Ford campaigns are the only ones planning to release their lists early so voters can follow the money.
However, Mr. Ford doesn’t appear to have given the issue much thought.
“I have no idea about that. I can’t remember discussing that so I can’t comment on that ... this is something [that’s] news to me,” Mr. Ford said, after a spokeswoman for his campaign told The Globe in a separate interview that the campaign intends to release its list before Oct. 25.
“Rob Ford has talked about transparency and accountability at city hall,” Adrienne Batra said. “This is one way he can demonstrate to the voters that he wants to be accountable and put his money where his mouth is.”
Elections Toronto requires all 2010 candidates to submit a final financial report by March 25, 2011, including the names and addresses of everyone who contributed $100 or more to their campaign. Contributors’ names are posted online. The maximum donation to a mayoral candidate is $2,500.
Corporate and union donations are banned for the first time in this race, although Mr. Miller and Ms. Pitfield refused gifts from both before voting day in 2006.
The three candidates who don’t plan to voluntarily disclose all offered different reasons for their decision.
A spokeswoman for the Smitherman campaign declined to explain why. “We are going to comply with the law on disclosing our donors,” Erika Mozes said in an e-mail. “I know some of the other candidates may have told you that they are going to release donors and make a big deal of it ... at this time this is all I have to say on it.”
Ms. Thomson said voluntary disclosure would be tantamount to using her donors to “promote myself.”
“I think people should be voting on policy and whether they think the candidate can do the job,” she said. “It’s not about who’s most popular.”
Bernie Morton, the veteran Conservative operative who took over Mr. Rossi’s campaign in August, said it wouldn’t be fair to donors to release their names without having warned them before they contributed.
“Honesty, openness and integrity would have [required] me to say to people originally, ‘when you donate to this campaign, your name will be released by the campaign to the media as a donor,’” he said. “In the absence of giving full disclosure about that from the onset, you can’t do it. I wouldn’t do that now.”
Still, Mr. Rossi would have been well aware of the issue before he registered in January and started raking in donations – he was campaign manager for Mr. Tory in 2003, when the former Rogers chief executive released a roster of 2,265 individual contributors and 462 corporate donors one week before the election.
“I’m perplexed at why it would make much difference before or after,” Prof. MacDermid said. “They [donors] know that their names are going to be made public afterward if they contributed more than $100. What difference would it make?”
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TwoDogs_39
Active Member
Oh god, I hope the rumour mill is wrong. If not, some of the other buffoons should really drop out ASAP and throw their support behind a viable candidate running in second.
MetroMan
Senior Member
The problem is, nobody can drop out. At best, they can stop campaigning and endorse another candidate, but all their names will be on the ballot on Oct 25.
I'm becoming increasingly afraid that Mayor Ford is inevitable. Even with 40%, that kind of momentum is unstoppable and no other candidate seems to have the support to get anywhere near that, even if others endorse him/her.
I'm becoming increasingly afraid that Mayor Ford is inevitable. Even with 40%, that kind of momentum is unstoppable and no other candidate seems to have the support to get anywhere near that, even if others endorse him/her.
GraphicMatt
Looking forward to a FRESH START for Toronto
40% of decided voters is not an insurmountable lead, provided the undecideds are still in the mid-teens.
MetroMan
Senior Member
It's not insurmountable, but it's not the kind of momentum that dies down in the span of 4 weeks, unless the candidate is involved in a scandal. Ford has already shown himself to be impervious to such scandals.
Mid 40's is going to be insurmountable if a consensus candidate doesn't show up real soon... and none of them appear to be gracious enough to give up.
Mid 40's is going to be insurmountable if a consensus candidate doesn't show up real soon... and none of them appear to be gracious enough to give up.
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MetroMan
Senior Member
Nanos Poll
Ford 46
Smitherman 21
Pantalone 17
Rossi 10
Thomson 6
Undecided 25%
Ford 46
Smitherman 21
Pantalone 17
Rossi 10
Thomson 6
Undecided 25%
GraphicMatt
Looking forward to a FRESH START for Toronto
Holy shit - Joe Pantalone.
nfitz
Superstar
If this is correct, Ford's support is only a bit higher than the August polls - 34.5% of total voters. (or is this just MetroMan's guess?)
What's interesting here is that Pantalone is polling better than we've seen previously - virtually even with Smitherman; which makes it difficult for people to gravitate to one of the other; that might be an issue.
GraphicMatt
Looking forward to a FRESH START for Toronto
Those are the real numbers. Both Smitherman + Undecided and Pantalone + Undecided creates a close race with Ford, considering the MOE of 3%.
We've seen about ~25% undecided consistently since polling began. These people are not going toward Ford.
(Hell, if I were polled right now, I'd have to claim Undecided too.)
We've seen about ~25% undecided consistently since polling began. These people are not going toward Ford.
(Hell, if I were polled right now, I'd have to claim Undecided too.)
MetroMan
Senior Member
No guesses. Those are the CTV numbers verbatim.
I think the biggest winner here is Pantalone. Thomson is dead. Time for her to drop out. Rossi's daily newsmaker announcements had no effect. The bad news is that Joe + George still doesn't beat Ford and if Rossi dropped out, most of his support would go to Ford.
allabootmatt
Senior Member
Ford's total here is within-the-margin similar to this Aug. 28 Star poll: http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/tor...4--ford-tapping-into-suburban-fury-poll-finds
Proportion of undecideds also very similar.
The difference is sharply reduced support for Smitherman.
Agree we will soon see a consensus anybody-but-Ford candidate, and then a showdown between the two. Almost certainly George. Remarkably, the Rossi campaign has spinners on Twitter demanding the Smitherman drop out to let Rocco have a clear shot. Now that's chutzpah...like, 'finish the Spadina Expressway' kinda chutzpah.
Edit to add: Ford support among all voters (decided and not) is almost identical, again, to this Aug 23 Post poll: http://news.nationalpost.com/2010/08/23/rob-ford-takes-11-point-lead-in-mayoral-race-poll/
Today's Nanos numbers are depressing, but Ford has hit a ceiling.
Proportion of undecideds also very similar.
The difference is sharply reduced support for Smitherman.
Agree we will soon see a consensus anybody-but-Ford candidate, and then a showdown between the two. Almost certainly George. Remarkably, the Rossi campaign has spinners on Twitter demanding the Smitherman drop out to let Rocco have a clear shot. Now that's chutzpah...like, 'finish the Spadina Expressway' kinda chutzpah.
Edit to add: Ford support among all voters (decided and not) is almost identical, again, to this Aug 23 Post poll: http://news.nationalpost.com/2010/08/23/rob-ford-takes-11-point-lead-in-mayoral-race-poll/
Today's Nanos numbers are depressing, but Ford has hit a ceiling.
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