[taal]

This is from York region:
2006 (total jobs): 462,320 jobs
2031 (total jobs): 798,800 jobs

I'm curious how other cities suburban employment growth compares to this ? i.e. verse say Chicago.

From a Toronto report:
2001:
Rest of GTA: 1.30M
Toronto: 1.44M

2031:
Rest of GTA: 2.39M
Toronto: 1.64M

That's a crazy change, the report wasn't hinting that there was anything wrong with this either.

Maybe this is the norm in North America ?

 

[doady]

I think all development and infrastructure improvements in the 905 should be banned, because they will be a strain to infrastructure in the City of Toronto. The worst is probably the MCC and the Mississauga Transitway, which just funnel riders onto roads, buses and subways in the City of Toronto. This is where the province needs to step in stop such obvious exploitation of the City of Toronto and its taxpayers. But of course, the province itself is part of the problem as well, considering the improvements being made to GO Transit, not mention providing gas tax funding to 905 systems, allowing them to expand, putting further strain on Toronto taxpayers. But the political power is concentrated in the 905 now, so it will only get worse.

 

[taal]

I think all development and infrastructure improvements in the 905 should be banned, because they will be a strain to infrastructure in the City of Toronto. The worst is probably the MCC and the Mississauga Transitway, which just funnel riders onto roads, buses and subways in the City of Toronto. This is where the province needs to step in stop such obvious exploitation of the City of Toronto and its taxpayers. But of course, the province itself is part of the problem as well, considering the improvements being made to GO Transit, not mention providing gas tax funding to 905 systems, allowing them to expand, putting further strain on Toronto taxpayers. But the political power is concentrated in the 905 now, so it will only get worse.

But if you look at the future employment projections ... in the not too distant future way more people will commute out of Toronto into the 905 (granted many will still be coming to the core) but look how many jobs will be in the 905 by 2031 !

So won't the situation be reversed to a certain degree ? More car dependent sure, but still we'll be filling their roads (coming from a 416er).

 

[Jonny5]

This is from York region:
2006 (total jobs): 462,320 jobs
2031 (total jobs): 798,800 jobs

I'm curious how other cities suburban employment growth compares to this ? i.e. verse say Chicago.

From a Toronto report:
2001:
Rest of GTA: 1.30M
Toronto: 1.44M

2031:
Rest of GTA: 2.39M
Toronto: 1.64M

That's a crazy change, the report wasn't hinting that there was anything wrong with this either.

Maybe this is the norm in North America ?

According to the Toronto report, employment in "Rest of GTA" will go up about 1 million by 2031.
According to the York report employment in York region will go up .33 million by 2031.
I know they are separate reports, but if you accept that both are correct, then the rest of the GTA, excluding York Region, will add 700,000 jobs. But isn't most of the population growth going to be in York region in this time period? How will people get to these jobs? Or will everyone be living in Milton and Clarington in 20 years?

 

[doady]

But if you look at the future employment projections ... in the not too distant future way more people will commute out of Toronto into the 905 (granted many will still be coming to the core) but look how many jobs will be in the 905 by 2031 !

So won't the situation be reversed to a certain degree ? More car dependent sure, but still we'll be filling their roads (coming from a 416er).

Ban development in both 416 and 905. Problem solved.

Maybe that's a little extreme, since it's the nature the development that the real issue here. The problem is that it's high density. The 905 should be developing low density instead of high density. Low density is far more sustainable, and less fo a strain to Toronto's infrastructure. Banning all high density development would probably just be as effective. Again, it's the province's fault for misguidedly attempting to curb sprawl and promote high density development by implementing that greenbelt. The federal government is to blame as well for allowing immigration into Canada. It's as Rob Ford said before the municpal election: all immigration should be banned because the infrastructure cannot support them. Obviously, this problem is on the minds of many Torontonians as well, considering he got elected as mayor of Toronto.

 

[taal]

According to the Toronto report, employment in "Rest of GTA" will go up about 1 million by 2031.
According to the York report employment in York region will go up .33 million by 2031.
I know they are separate reports, but if you accept that both are correct, then the rest of the GTA, excluding York Region, will add 700,000 jobs. But isn't most of the population growth going to be in York region in this time period? How will people get to these jobs? Or will everyone be living in Milton and Clarington in 20 years?

You're right that's a good point ... I think Peel region will probably go up .2 or so. So maybe the Toronto report isn't so accurate, it was a bit older I believe.
But either way, they'll definitely likely bypass Toronto.

I think population growth is similar too though, actually even more so. So they have to work somewhere, clearly most of the new residents in the 905 will work there too, along with some new Toronto ones.

 

[jaycola]

Source

Assuming you are all being facetious about reigning in development and restricting immigration, The trend towards greater employment and population growth outside of Toronto should be seen as a positive. The complaints that Toronto's roads are being increasingly overrun by 905'rs appear erroneous while the opposite is where the trend line may lie. Growth in York Region's share of employment has been strongest among municipalities in the GTA nearly doubling in the 20 years surveyed while Toronto's share dropped by around 20%.

Similarly, from the other graphic, York region is projected to grow by an astounding 65% over the period shown, in sheer numbers an amount equal to the projected growth of Toronto.

Increasingly, over the next 2 decades, Torontonians will be making the trek out to 905 to work. The region needs to work together to manage this growth and needs to coordinate services in order to provide efficient transportation to 416'ers and 905'ers alike.

 

[EnviroTO]

The employment data on the chart and the population chart are a little misleading. One is a comparison of 1986 and 2006, and one is a comparison of 2006 and 2031. If the population distribution was 65% in 1983 and is 50% now, and the employment share was 65% in 1983, and is 51% now, then that could mean there are more people coming into Toronto to work from the 905 than before. We need data from the same time periods to know if that is true or not.

 

[taal]

The employment data on the chart and the population chart are a little misleading. One is a comparison of 1986 and 2006, and one is a comparison of 2006 and 2031. If the population distribution was 65% in 1983 and is 50% now, and the employment share was 65% in 1983, and is 51% now, then that could mean there are more people coming into Toronto to work from the 905 than before. We need data from the same time periods to know if that is true or not.

Maybe, but if you look at my numbers projected for 2031, then clearly by that date more 416 people will go to the 905. I mean which direction isn't as crucial.
Maybe only 416ers work in their 416 and 905ers work in the 905. But surely that'd imply transportation systems that work today aren't going to be as important (in the big scheme of things) in 20 years i.e. Union station. Maybe it'll be just as important as today but overall new stations in the 905 will start to take center stage.

Generally ... I think centralization is a better scheme. I'd much rather see 60% of all job growth in the GTA in downtown Toronto ... keep improving transportation.

 

[EnviroTO]

My only point is that the number of people entering downtown whose road network was laid down a long time ago seems to be continuing to grow in absolute terms. While the percentage of people in the GTA who are in Toronto and the jobs in the GTA that are in Toronto may be decreasing (as a percentage), it is incorrect to think the number of people or jobs in Toronto is decreasing. Union Station will grow in importance because it will remain at the centre of a growing city, growing core, and growing rail network. Some suburban stations may become larger than the commuter service to Toronto stations they are today. At the same time Toronto will continue to be congested, continue to grow, and continue to have greater ridership per household than locations where cars are a viable transportation option and even if they are going to those suburban stations to work they will often pass through Union to get there.

I'm for coordination of transportation planning, but that doesn't mean equal infrastructure or spending to all places, it means a common criteria for determining where infrastructure dollars are spent and where service improvement goes based on ridership numbers, trip patterns, road capacity, etc.

 

[k10ery]

My only point is that the number of people entering downtown whose road network was laid down a long time ago seems to be continuing to grow in absolute terms. While the percentage of people in the GTA who are in Toronto and the jobs in the GTA that are in Toronto may be decreasing (as a percentage), it is incorrect to think the number of people or jobs in Toronto is decreasing. Union Station will grow in importance because it will remain at the centre of a growing city, growing core, and growing rail network. Some suburban stations may become larger than the commuter service to Toronto stations they are today. At the same time Toronto will continue to be congested, continue to grow, and continue to have greater ridership per household than locations where cars are a viable transportation option and even if they are going to those suburban stations to work they will often pass through Union to get there.

I'm for coordination of transportation planning, but that doesn't mean equal infrastructure or spending to all places, it means a common criteria for determining where infrastructure dollars are spent and where service improvement goes based on ridership numbers, trip patterns, road capacity, etc.

Even if jobs in Toronto never grow again, as population in the 905 grows the proportion of Toronto jobs held by 905ers will grow, and Toronto's congestion problem will grow with it. That's inevitable unless we are going to start forcing people to live where they work (through road tolls for example).

 

[Glen]

My only point is that the number of people entering downtown whose road network was laid down a long time ago seems to be continuing to grow in absolute terms. While the percentage of people in the GTA who are in Toronto and the jobs in the GTA that are in Toronto may be decreasing (as a percentage), it is incorrect to think the number of people or jobs in Toronto is decreasing.

The Cordon Count shows that this is not tthe case. The number of cars entering the core has been decreasing.

"The growth in vehicle trips between the ‘905’ regions has been particularly strong. This growth has been fueled by rapid expansion in population as well as new employment centres that have located in the ‘905’ region. Additionally, new high speed and major transportation infrastructure such as Highway 407 that straddles the ‘905’ region has contributed to this growth. As a result, reverse commuting and cross commuting patterns have become more predominant than was observed in 1991. The Central Area Cordon has actually recorded a slight decrease in vehicular trips in the peak direction (inbound), which is testament to the fact that new employment has been locating outside the traditional downtown, in areas which are relatively more accessible by a high speed road network. Total transit ridership from and to the Central Area Cordon was relatively stable from 2001 to 2006.



The only screenline that showed a decrease for both the total count period and the combined peak period was the Central Area Cordon. The Central Area Cordon experienced a decrease of 11% during both the combined morning and afternoon peak period and the total count period."

http://www.jpint.utoronto.ca/PDF/mmm_cordondoc.html

 

[Glen]

Another point to keep in mind is that the empolyment projections are completely unrealistic. The city is already far behind in it's own estimates for employment in the city. By now the city's projection were that there would be ~ 1.62 million jobs in the city. There are less than 1.3 million. What is more remarkable is that these projecttions are still used as a basis for planning.

http://www.toronto.ca/planning/pdf/flash_sec6.pdf

 

[taal]

Another point to keep in mind is that the empolyment projections are completely unrealistic. The city is already far behind in it's own estimates for employment in the city. By now the city's projection were that there would be ~ 1.62 million jobs in the city. There are less than 1.3 million. What is more remarkable is that these projecttions are still used as a basis for planning.

http://www.toronto.ca/planning/pdf/flash_sec6.pdf

What I read said the projection was 1.6 million for 2031, maybe they simply update it when they can't meet the targets.

 

[Disparishun]

i also question alot of 905 growth expectations. now that these areas are predominately building condos townhouses and semis i dont see the appeal of 905.

Yes. Those who are moving into those condos, townhouses, and semis do, though. For those who aren't planning moats along the City of Toronto boundaries, it's not really about the name of the municipality, but the name of the neighbourhood, who they know who lives there, what they are close to, and so on.

toronto has many areas which will be developed into similar developments and be much closer to the city.

I think that's where you're stumbling. These townhouses, condos, semis in the 905 are part of the city. Not part of the municipality of the City of Toronto. Part of the urban agglomeration in which people live, play, work, have relativities, purchase famliar groceries, and everything else.