jayme2016
Active Member
The first vaccinations reported in the media is a great feel good story. I guess we should savor that for a moment.
As throughout this pandemic however I think it paints a false narrative to the public. 2021 will be a grind. I would wager you will be more likely to contract covid-19 in 2021 than 2020.
I'm interested in how the pandemic will be declared over because people have this false sense that Covid-19 will be imminently eradicated. The reality will probably be an unsatisfying metric-based declaration like an icu capacity threshold target.
The downside risk is that vaccination roll out and insufficient vaccine uptake will roll this though into 2022 providing time for the virus to mutate sufficiently to make it an annually required shot. I think this is highly likely. Covid-19 will become less lethal but potentially require an annual shot to help control it.
Bill Gates said today this will go well into 2022 before things are back to normal.