[micheal_can]

Thing is. There are ~2 million people living east of Toronto for whom the only option is Pearson. Using Hamilton would involve even more travel through the heart of the GTA's urban core. The closest option heading east would be, ..., ???, Kingston (not sure if there is still scheduled service to this airport any more). I don't think a Pickering airport would be drawing from downtown Toronto as much as it would be drawing from the rest of the surrounding region. In particular I can see Pickering serving the tech hub in Markham.

That said I doubt we will see Pickering operational until the late 2030's or early 2040's, if at all. Pearson still has a lot of growth left in it.

That is right around the time Via's HSR could open. That could open up more slots in Pearson for more longer distance routes. With the HSR route going through Durham, people may just not fly to places east that are served by it.

 

[Northern Light]

Of note, over in the Rouge Park Visitors Centre thread, I plunked down some news about a Rouge Park expansion, some of which, is in the proximity of the airport lands.

Rouge National Urban Park Visitor Centre | 6.99m | 1s | Parks Canada | Moriyama & Teshima

FWIW city of Pickering council recently reiterated in a recent public meeting keeping Twyn Rivers open as one of only 3 roads connecting Pickering with Toronto (the others being the 401 and Kingston Rd/Hwy 2). I also expect near the visitor centre is where the Meadoway cycling trails of both...

urbantoronto.ca

 

[Woodbridge_Heights]

That is right around the time Via's HSR could open. That could open up more slots in Pearson for more longer distance routes. With the HSR route going through Durham, people may just not fly to places east that are served by it.

I'd like to see HSR before Pickering opens TBH. Still for someone in the Eastern GTA, the next international airport would be Ottawa, a ~2 hr trip even best case scenario on HSR.

 

[micheal_can]

I'd like to see HSR before Pickering opens TBH. Still for someone in the Eastern GTA, the next international airport would be Ottawa, a ~2 hr trip even best case scenario on HSR.

I was looking a HSR as more for those that are going to be flying to Ottawa or Montreal.

 

[IRT_BMT_IND]

I don't think a Pickering airport would be drawing from downtown Toronto as much as it would be drawing from the rest of the surrounding region. In particular I can see Pickering serving the tech hub in Markham.

The problem with this assumption is that it rests on Air Canada breaking up its hub in Toronto, which they are unlikely to do unless the airport is designed as a Pearson replacement from the ground up and they can move their whole operation there. Split hubs only really work in the biggest aviation markets in the world (like New York City and Tokyo) where there's so much demand the airlines can fill planes to multiple airports. Unless the tech companies in Markham can fill enough business class seats on a particular route, which realistically is probably only New York or San Francisco (this AFAIK is why All Nippon Airways used to serve Norman Mineta airport in Silicon Valley from Tokyo before COVID), Air Canada or any mainline carrier isn't likely to operate one-off orphan flights for them.

If this airport is ever built it will likely attract the vacation carriers which business travelers don't use. And Pearson is easier to get to from Mississauga and isn't that difficult to get to on the 407 from York Region (business travelers use uber or car service and expense the tolls).

 

[micheal_can]

If Pickering were to be seen as a successful commercial airport, and not just a general aviation airport, Hamilton's Airport would need to be seen as getting too busy as well. Having one east of Toronto does not mean it will get much traffic. Besides, draw a line N/S through the halfway point between Pearson.and Pickering. Most of the population is west of that line.

 

[lenaitch]

The problem with this assumption is that it rests on Air Canada breaking up its hub in Toronto, which they are unlikely to do unless the airport is designed as a Pearson replacement from the ground up and they can move their whole operation there. Split hubs only really work in the biggest aviation markets in the world (like New York City and Tokyo) where there's so much demand the airlines can fill planes to multiple airports. Unless the tech companies in Markham can fill enough business class seats on a particular route, which realistically is probably only New York or San Francisco (this AFAIK is why All Nippon Airways used to serve Norman Mineta airport in Silicon Valley from Tokyo before COVID), Air Canada or any mainline carrier isn't likely to operate one-off orphan flights for them.

If this airport is ever built it will likely attract the vacation carriers which business travelers don't use. And Pearson is easier to get to from Mississauga and isn't that difficult to get to on the 407 from York Region (business travelers use uber or car service and expense the tolls).

Not just AC but their inter-line partners.

 

[IRT_BMT_IND]

Not just AC but their inter-line partners.

None of the mainline carriers will likely have any interest in moving to a new airport, with the possible exception of foreign airlines where the demand is almost all O&D out of Toronto (if there even are any), and even then probably only if a new airport has substantially lower fees.

 

[micheal_can]

None of the mainline carriers will likely have any interest in moving to a new airport, with the possible exception of foreign airlines where the demand is almost all O&D out of Toronto (if there even are any), and even then probably only if a new airport has substantially lower fees.

How many of them fly out of Hamilton? One would expect that if the foreign air carriers were wanting to get in, they would be in Hamilton.

 

[dowlingm]

How many of them fly out of Hamilton? One would expect that if the foreign air carriers were wanting to get in, they would be in Hamilton.

Hamilton is difficult to get to from the rest of the GTA and suffers with competition from across the border. Pickering is a very different market and access situation.

 

[Woodbridge_Heights]

The problem with this assumption is that it rests on Air Canada breaking up its hub in Toronto, which they are unlikely to do unless the airport is designed as a Pearson replacement from the ground up and they can move their whole operation there. Split hubs only really work in the biggest aviation markets in the world (like New York City and Tokyo) where there's so much demand the airlines can fill planes to multiple airports. Unless the tech companies in Markham can fill enough business class seats on a particular route, which realistically is probably only New York or San Francisco (this AFAIK is why All Nippon Airways used to serve Norman Mineta airport in Silicon Valley from Tokyo before COVID), Air Canada or any mainline carrier isn't likely to operate one-off orphan flights for them.

If this airport is ever built it will likely attract the vacation carriers which business travelers don't use. And Pearson is easier to get to from Mississauga and isn't that difficult to get to on the 407 from York Region (business travelers use uber or car service and expense the tolls).

Of course, of course. Part of the trouble with predicting what Pickering could be is determining what kind of traveler it will be catering to. If it were to be a compliment to and reliever of YYZ, or a regional airport then yes it would likely be a split hub and AC/WS are unlikely to split their operations (AC in particular has a pretty good deal at YYZ). If Pickering is going to target the tech companies in Markham then it would need to attract an Asian carrier at least. As a leisure travel focused airport, charter airlines and LCC are less concerned about hub operations. The third alternative would be as an alliance hub, Star Alliance and One World (BA) would likely remain, so that would leave Sky team.

Either way Pickering would need a anchor tenant, AC and WS aren't leaving YYZ. At one time I thought that Porter was a viable option, but with them moving to YYZ, that seems less likely now.

If Pickering were to be seen as a successful commercial airport, and not just a general aviation airport, Hamilton's Airport would need to be seen as getting too busy as well. Having one east of Toronto does not mean it will get much traffic. Besides, draw a line N/S through the halfway point between Pearson.and Pickering. Most of the population is west of that line.

The midway point is basically the 404. That means East York, Scarborough, Markham, all of Durham, and points East. Comprising roughly 1/4'th of the population of the GTAH. Doing the same for Hamilton gives a midway point of Bronte. Placing only Burlington, and Hamilton as GTA municipalities that are closer to YHM than YYZ, or roughly only 1 million people. Yes there are other cities (K-W, Guelph, the entire south shore of Lake Ontario/the Golden horseshoe, Brantford, London, etc), however there is also lots of cannibalization in the region as there are 3 airports operating in that region (Hamilton, Waterloo, and London). I think if we are gong to make the argument for 3 regional airports serving a catchment area of ~3 million+ people (on top of a major international airport in YYZ, and competition from Buffalo), than the figures don't look as bad for the East end. There is literally no international airport with scheduled service East of YYZ until you get to Ottawa.(~450 km away)

 

[micheal_can]

Hamilton is difficult to get to from the rest of the GTA and suffers with competition from across the border. Pickering is a very different market and access situation.

Take highway 6 from the 403. Ta da. You are there.

What major highway goes there from a non tolled highway? None.
So, what part of the southern section of Pickering will be bulldozed for a new highway?

The midway point is basically the 404. That means East York, Scarborough, Markham, all of Durham, and points East. Comprising roughly 1/4'th of the population of the GTAH. Doing the same for Hamilton gives a midway point of Bronte. Placing only Burlington, and Hamilton as GTA municipalities that are closer to YHM than YYZ, or roughly only 1 million people. Yes there are other cities (K-W, Guelph, the entire south shore of Lake Ontario/the Golden horseshoe, Brantford, London, etc), however there is also lots of cannibalization in the region as there are 3 airports operating in that region (Hamilton, Waterloo, and London). I think if we are gong to make the argument for 3 regional airports serving a catchment area of ~3 million+ people (on top of a major international airport in YYZ, and competition from Buffalo), than the figures don't look as bad for the East end. There is literally no international airport with scheduled service East of YYZ until you get to Ottawa.(~450 km away)

East of Durham, there aren't a lot of major cities outside of Kingston. and it only has a population of about 132,000.

450km west of Pearson gets you to Windsor. In there, places like London (over 350,000), K/W/C has over 580,000. Not to mention the fact that it sits in a city of about 700,000

There just isn't enough population for it.

 

[drum118]

I'd like to see HSR before Pickering opens TBH. Still for someone in the Eastern GTA, the next international airport would be Ottawa, a ~2 hr trip even best case scenario on HSR.

That is great if you have a car or someone to pick you up or drop off there, otherwise, one hell of a transit ride.

Had to pickup and drop someone off this month for the first time since I rented them a car and a hour car trip. From my place to the airport using transit would be around 3 hours plus each way.

Doing screening will be a lot shorter than Pearson.

Using Pickering will be an nightmare for transit users as well very costly for airport service. It was $50 just to do Pearson compare to $4 by transit and 45 minute trip that we did last year. Only saving 20 minutes using Airport service.

 

[Woodbridge_Heights]

Take highway 6 from the 403. Ta da. You are there.

What major highway goes there from a non tolled highway? None.
So, what part of the southern section of Pickering will be bulldozed for a new highway?


East of Durham, there aren't a lot of major cities outside of Kingston. and it only has a population of about 132,000.

450km west of Pearson gets you to Windsor. In there, places like London (over 350,000), K/W/C has over 580,000. Not to mention the fact that it sits in a city of about 700,000

There just isn't enough population for it.

I feel like there's a lot of scope creep while we are discussing catchment areas. If you are including Windsor's population in the catchment of YHM, YXU, YKF (and now YQG since you've included Windsor), why aren't you including Ottawa (which adds a 1.4 million person population to Windsor's 0.7 million) in the potential catchment of Pickering? Still you cant tell me that 4 times the number of people live between Burlington and Windsor as do between Scarborough and Ottawa, that justifies having 4 airports in the region.

 

[lenaitch]

I don't know but can imagine the further west one lives, Detroit enters the equation.

Pickering just seems to have a Mirabel aura to it. Build it and they didn't come.