[nfitz]

I don't know but can imagine the further west one lives, Detroit enters the equation.

I think more go to Buffalo from the GTHA than Detroit.

Pickering just seems to have a Mirabel aura to it. Build it and they didn't come.

And yet Mirabel had over 66,000 aircraft movements in 2021, comapred to about 180,000 at Trudeau. Meanwhile Hamilton only had 31,000!

Passenger at Mirabel certainly failed. But something else was necessary for large cargo planes. And really, I don't see Pickering being used for much more than cargo for many years - and some very basic service, such as the odd flight to Montreal and New York City - and a few charters.

Part of the reason Mirabel failed for passengers, is that they neither finished the planned Autoroute directly from Trudeau to Mirabel (Autoroute 13 - formerly namedthe Autoroute Mirable), nor the planned rail link (though they did build part of the train station at the airport). Pickering already has both in place, other than the last mile.

 

[Woodbridge_Heights]

Anyway I just think that the issue with Pickering isn't the lack of a population base, I think I've shown that there is a sufficient population base in the area. The main problems are:

- Finding a domestic airline to be an anchor tenant at the airport. AC and WS aren't leaving YYZ, and even if they doe fly to Pickering it will be a tiny footprint.
- Attracting foreign airlines who are either getting second class treatment at YYZ or unable to get attractive slots at YYZ. Specifically Asian carriers if the focus is going to be Markham's tech sector.
- and/or attracting sufficient leisure charter and LCC airlines whose focus P2P travel would make them indifferent to the hub dynamic of YYZ
- Doing all this and being able to attract fliers away from the massive gravity of YYZ in drawing in both passengers and airlines.

Many of these issues are also faced by Hamilton/Waterloo/London only they are extant airports and Pickering would be a new build.

 

[IRT_BMT_IND]

- Attracting foreign airlines who are either getting second class treatment at YYZ or unable to get attractive slots at YYZ. Specifically Asian carriers if the focus is going to be Markham's tech sector.

The only major Asian airlines who are even remotely likely to start service to YYZ in the foreseeable future are probably Asiana, China Airlines, ANA, and JAL, and they'll want to connect with AC and WestJet on the Toronto end. 5 years ago I'd say some of the Mainland China carriers might be interested in serving Pickering, but with the current geopolitical situation I doubt there is going to be much growth on this front.

If there's a business case for Pickering airport, its not for long haul business travel.

 

[gweed123]

If there's a business case for Pickering airport, its not for long haul business travel.

I think the business case for Pickering is a combination of GA (as a replacement for Oshawa and Buttonville), corporate (for Markham's tech sector), and point-to-point discount airlines who want to avoid the high costs of Pearson.

All 3 of those point to an initial airport build-out that's maybe the size of Waterloo Airport. Not even really approaching the size of Hamilton, let alone somewhere like Buffalo.

Personally, unless the demand reaches a point where a build-out like Buffalo is needed, I don't even think it's worth it to go through the trouble of building it in the first place.

 

[christiesplits]

I see some similarities between Toronto-Pearson and the proposed Toronto-Pickering airport with Buffalo-Niagara International (BUF) and Niagara Falls International Airport (IAG).

IAG is the smaller of the two Buffalo area airports and is currently only used by Allegiant. I could hypothetically see a scenario where Toronto-Pickering becomes home of Sunwing, Flair and other discount and charter airlines.

 

[micheal_can]

I feel like there's a lot of scope creep while we are discussing catchment areas. If you are including Windsor's population in the catchment of YHM, YXU, YKF (and now YQG since you've included Windsor), why aren't you including Ottawa (which adds a 1.4 million person population to Windsor's 0.7 million) in the potential catchment of Pickering? Still you cant tell me that 4 times the number of people live between Burlington and Windsor as do between Scarborough and Ottawa, that justifies having 4 airports in the region.

It was in regards to the 450km from Pearson to Ottawa argument.

The fact that there are 4 airports within the larger catchment area of SWO/GTA, is an even bigger argument for not building Pickering.

I don't know but can imagine the further west one lives, Detroit enters the equation.

Pickering just seems to have a Mirabel aura to it. Build it and they didn't come.

I was pointing out that the 450km range on one way is Ottawa, but the other way is Windsor. A lot of people from London west will use Detroit.

I think more go to Buffalo from the GTHA than Detroit.

And yet Mirabel had over 66,000 aircraft movements in 2021, comapred to about 180,000 at Trudeau. Meanwhile Hamilton only had 31,000!

Passenger at Mirabel certainly failed. But something else was necessary for large cargo planes. And really, I don't see Pickering being used for much more than cargo for many years - and some very basic service, such as the odd flight to Montreal and New York City - and a few charters.

Part of the reason Mirabel failed for passengers, is that they neither finished the planned Autoroute directly from Trudeau to Mirabel (Autoroute 13 - formerly namedthe Autoroute Mirable), nor the planned rail link (though they did build part of the train station at the airport). Pickering already has both in place, other than the last mile.

So, why should we open another GTA airport when one of them is still well under served?

 

[Coolibop]

Just keep in mind this is being positioned as primarily cargo and not passenger airport. Pickering is trying to sell it's innovation corridor for large business.

 

[micheal_can]

Just keep in mind this is being positioned as primarily cargo and not passenger airport. Pickering is trying to sell it's innovation corridor for large business.

Even more reason to utilize Hamilton. Why not locate more facilities to Hamilton?

 

[Sunnyside]

Even more reason to utilize Hamilton. Why not locate more facilities to Hamilton?

It is set to grow, as the surrounding lands are to be a comprehensive employment area. I do not know of any modern plans to actually expand the airport dramatically in the near term, however. Given that YHM is getting attention in provincial growth plans, perhaps Pickering is a far cry off. Maybe the Mayor's message that started this conversation was nothing more than municipal panhandling to get some attention from the feds.

 

[micheal_can]

It is set to grow, as the surrounding lands are to be a comprehensive employment area. I do not know of any modern plans to actually expand the airport dramatically in the near term, however. Given that YHM is getting attention in provincial growth plans, perhaps Pickering is a far cry off. Maybe the Mayor's message that started this conversation was nothing more than municipal panhandling to get some attention from the feds.

With the housing crisis in the GTA, it would have been better to ask the government to release the land so that developers can build housing.

 

[Sunnyside]

With the housing crisis in the GTA, it would have been better to ask the government to release the land so that developers can build housing.

There is no shortage of land in Pickering or Markham around here for development... and both municipalities (perhaps especially Pickering) are hungry for suburban growth. But the potential upside in the long term of an airport and associated employment lands is too great to just cast it aside for residential. This land translates to perhaps tens of, if not hundreds of millions of dollars of industrial/commercial taxes someday. It's also not particularly accessible today by transit or even automobile, with very little close by to actually work/go to; lands closer to the built-up area in both Pickering and Markham remain undeveloped. The airport would itself be a catalyst for growth on its own lands and in the surrounding areas, creating an explosion in urban expansion nearby... for better or worse.

 

[micheal_can]

There is no shortage of land in Pickering or Markham around here for development... and both municipalities (perhaps especially Pickering) are hungry for suburban growth. But the potential upside in the long term of an airport and associated employment lands is too great to just cast it aside for residential. This land translates to perhaps tens of, if not hundreds of millions of dollars of industrial/commercial taxes someday. It's also not particularly accessible today by transit or even automobile, with very little close by to actually work/go to; lands closer to the built-up area in both Pickering and Markham remain undeveloped. The airport would itself be a catalyst for growth on its own lands and in the surrounding areas, creating an explosion in urban expansion nearby... for better or worse.

Right now, everywhere is hiring. That is not going away any time soon.So, if we look at that land, if they can build on it and get the housing costs down in the area, that would be better use of the land than any airport development will do.

 

[isaidso]

With the housing crisis in the GTA, it would have been better to ask the government to release the land so that developers can build housing.

There are myriad demands that constantly need to be addressed. Attention to all of them is needed. It's shortsighted and foolhardy to dismiss one need to concentrate on another. Toronto might not need a big airport in Pickering today but what happens when/if the Golden Horseshoe population doubles or triples? Land set aside for parks, airports, agriculture? Once you build housing on it, you can't undo it.

It takes foresight, wisdom, and resolve to reject immediate pressures for the long term good. Some cities are still benefiting from great decisions made a century ago. New York and Central Park? Unfortunately, our ancestors didn't do the same for us. This is yet another fork in the road. Do we make decisions that will benefit Toronto generations from now or squander the opportunities in front of us? It's not like this is the only land available for housing.

 

[micheal_can]

There are myriad demands that constantly need to be addressed. Attention to all of them is needed. It's shortsighted and foolhardy to dismiss one need to concentrate on another. Toronto might not need a big airport in Pickering today but what happens when/if the Golden Horseshoe population doubles or triples? Land set aside for parks, airports, agriculture? Once you build housing on it, you can't undo it.

It takes foresight, wisdom, and resolve to reject immediate pressures for the long term good. Some cities are still benefiting from great decisions made a century ago. New York and Central Park? Unfortunately, our ancestors didn't do the same for us. This is yet another fork in the road. Do we make decisions that will benefit Toronto generations from now or squander the opportunities in front of us? It's not like this is the only land available for housing.

Are you trying to compare the Pickering Airport to a massive park? The property is farmland and will remain farmland till something is done with it.

Why is it good for housing is because it is quite close to Toronto in comparison to other areas in Durham region.

Most of the Golden Horseshoe is to the west of Pearson, so Hamilton's Airport will take the brunt. So can Waterloo and London's. Double all of the Golden Horseshoe numbers, And you just get over 1 million. That is the same as Hamilton would be. Halton would also be 1 million.So would Waterloo. Peel would be about 3 million. York would be around 2.5 million. So, are you building an airport for 1 million people? I doubt it.

 

[Coolibop]

Again, to summarize, the KPMG study suggested beyond 2036 may be required (assuming we utilized all expansion available to us at the time of study). COVID certainly affected projections - probably one of the reasons why they're looking again to see how post pandemic numbers look. Interested parties include both existing/new businesses and the city looking to attract to the area. With cargo being the (primary?) driver for the airport, population of the immediate surrounding may not need to play. Already were seeing some big warehouses moving in (and I think another big player like Amazon/Walmart/Costco being announced soon). They also have a role to play in this airport...

Also of consideration (also up in the air) is Pickering Nuclear; and possibly the accounting for those eventual (10k?) job losses. Mayor Ashe is trying to attract jobs; he has said he wants to be the jobs mayor several times. Overall I think he has the votes to support (4-3) with councilor Robinson (I think)...her being the wildcard from what I can tell.

Independently, HxR is being pursued in addition for passenger travel (or at least to at least get the name in a hat to take a look).