I am voting with my heart (Chow), with no fear of Druggo getting in. This is from someone who has strategically voted in the past when needed.
I am not placing a ton of stock in the polls. I believe that Ford will be lower than he is polling, potentially substantially, likely in 3rd place and as mentioned earlier, below 20%. I think Chow has more support than the polls show.
I would be a metric ton more surprised to see Doug win before Chow. Even if the polls are taken as somewhat accurate, for Chow to pass Tory, she is going to have to pull lots of votes from Tory. Tory would come down quite a bit, but Chow would go up quite a bit, surpassing Doug. If she doesn't pull enough voters from Tory, Tory still wins. There is no going up the middle for Doug, he is too far behind Tory. At worst it will make it a tighter result, with Tory coming in lower than polled, and Chow higher, with Ford steady and a Tory mayoralty.
That being said, I do think that the strategic vote-Tory-lest-Ford movement will be the decisive factor when all is said and done. Chow really bungled her opportunity to be the champion of that block.