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TrickyRicky said:
^Depends how the competition splits. 30-35% of the vote could easily win the Mayor re-election. Faced for instance with a very left-wing opponent in a head-to-head many soft supporters could hold their nose and add another 10-15% to Ford's vote tally particularly in the inner suburbs.

Ford's re-election is a clear and present danger. Anyone who thinks otherwise is fooling themselves. I hope the people on this forum, particularly those who mock and jest about Ford get serious and actually put their own time, money, and effort into the candidate they hope will unseat him. Otherwise, the ultimate joke is on you!
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Didn't Ford win with only a 1/4 of the possible vote? I seem to remember he got 47% of half all possible votes. Only half the voting public turned out to cast a ballot in 2010 and then the vote was split, so Ford got in with only 1/2 of 1/2 the vote.
Hopefully, more people will vote this year. And hopefully, everyone running will realize that we don't want to split the vote this time around.
 
Just my two cents on Ford’s re-election prospects:

Barring any arrests, I think Ford can bank on getting 35% of the vote. This assumes (plausibly, I think) that he has gained few to zero new supporters since the 2010 election; and also that 25% of his 2010 supporters have seen the light and are looking elsewhere.

But that would also mean that 75% of his 2010 supporters will stand by their man. So unless voter turn-out increases drastically (thus diluting his share), he’ll wind up with 35% of the vote.

Whether he wins with 35% would come down to the number of plausible challengers:
- In a two-way race, he’s done.
- In a three-way race of high profile candidates, it’s really anyone’s guess (though I think a lone, left-leaning candidate like Chow comes out slightly on top in this scenario)
- In a four-way race, he’s certain to win.

The only silver lining if Ford steals a win with a meagre 35%? Perhaps the majority for whom Ford was a last choice will start vocalizing support for ranked balloting. Because left or right leaning, we can all agree that winning any election with only 35% of the vote is not a democratic outcome.
 
scut farkus said:
Whether he wins with 35% would come down to the number of plausible challengers:
- In a two-way race, he’s done.
- In a three-way race of high profile candidates, it’s really anyone’s guess (though I think a lone, left-leaning candidate like Chow comes out slightly on top in this scenario)
- In a four-way race, he’s certain to win.
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Even last time there was an incredible amount of pressure being put on Joey Pants to drop out of the race to give Smitherman a bit more of a chance. I think that most of the people who are in competition for the job at this point have enough sense of civic duty to do the same if it comes down to it.

Which really just means that I wouldn't bet on there being any more than two front-running candidates by voting day: Ford and whoever can convince the others that they have the best chance I suppose.
 
PinkLucy said:
Well, obviously the Board of Trade supports Ford because he has a grand transit vision, i.e., Subways, Subways, Subways! :rolleyes:
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I'm confused, am I missing something, the Board of Trade is for a transit that reaches as many as possible, and compliments a greater transit, Southern Ontario linkage. The fighting for transit in Toronto like the proposed Scarborough B&D extension, especially it since it would provide less transit for the people of Scarborough.
 
http://www.thestar.com/news/crime/2014/01/08/project_traveller_documents_to_be_released_to_lawyers_by_feb_19.html?utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitterfeed

The delay in public access to dozens more police documents connected to a major guns and gangs operation that has been linked to Mayor Rob Ford will stretch into the New Year.

Ontario Court Judge Philip Downes ruled Wednesday the Crown has until Feb. 19 to hand over censored copies of the documents used by police to get search warrants in Project Traveller.

Those copies will only be available to media lawyers at first, so they can prepare arguments for what should be uncensored and released.

There is no timeline set on when the might be available to the public.
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http://www.siu.on.ca/en/news_template.php?nrid=1861

SIU Investigates Toronto Falling Death

Case Number: 14-TCD-004
Appeals Form
Witness Form

Mississauga (8 January, 2014) --- Ontario’s Special Investigations Unit (SIU) is probing the circumstances surrounding the death of a 22-year-old woman in Toronto this afternoon.

Preliminary information indicates the following:
• At approximately 1:15 p.m. on Wednesday, January 8, 2014, Toronto Police Services officers attended an apartment building at 330 Dixon Road to speak with a woman on the 25th floor;
• At some point, the woman fell from the apartment unit to the ground outside the building;
• Her death was pronounced at the scene.
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This is at one of the Project Traveller buildings
 
TrickyRicky said:
^Depends how the competition splits. 30-35% of the vote could easily win the Mayor re-election. Faced for instance with a very left-wing opponent in a head-to-head many soft supporters could hold their nose and add another 10-15% to Ford's vote tally particularly in the inner suburbs.

Ford's re-election is a clear and present danger. Anyone who thinks otherwise is fooling themselves. I hope the people on this forum, particularly those who mock and jest about Ford get serious and actually put their own time, money, and effort into the candidate they hope will unseat him. Otherwise, the ultimate joke is on you!
Click to expand...

If mayors can "easily" win elections with 30-35% of the vote, then you should be able to produce several examples of such a thing actually happening in real life.

Just because something is possible in theory doesn't mean that it's likely in practice. What has historically happened in previous mayoral elections is that two frontrunners emerge that share over 80% of the vote, requiring the winner to get more than 40%. The only exceptions to this trend have been landslides (which we can all agree Ford is in no danger of getting).

To find the last time a mayor was elected in Toronto with less than 40% of the vote, you need to go all the way back to 1978. A split on the right resulted in John Sewell winning with only 39% of the vote. The '78 election is really the exception that proves to rule because it was unprecedented at the time, and we haven't seen anything like it in the 35 years and 11 municipal elections since. And even Sewell's 39% would be a bit of a stretch for Ford.
 
I'm interested to hear others' perceived motivations for DoFo and RoFo's burnng desire to be in politics.

The only thing I can come up with is "the sense of power it brings", and the visibility. I guess Rob lives on whatever affirmation he can get from campaigning.

It's not for the consituents because the real, material one-on-one interaction is non-existent.

The idea of following in Dad's legacy is kind of hollow since he was only a four-year (one term?) backbencher.

If one argues it's for the kickbacks, well - given how they emphasize their hatred of that kind of thing - wouldn't it be just too easy to catch them in their own hypocrisy?

And their hatred of taxes, spending and politicians makes them virtual anarchists anyway. Why be in government if you hate the system? All they want to do is take city-funded services and infrastructure away - they have no proposed alternatives or ideas, because with their level of affluence, they don't rely on it and thus would never be hurt. Also, their minds don't work as visionaries, only as critics.

And they have Deco. So why politics? Why bother with all the hassle? Maybe it's the hassle that they like. The "street fighting".

I just don't get it.
 
Jado said:
I'm interested to hear others' perceived motivations for DoFo and RoFo's burning desire to be in politics.
Click to expand...

My money is on a wretched cocktail of the following:
  • Trying to live up to some bizarre idea of who Daddy Ford was
  • Mama Ford ordained it, so what else should they do?
  • An inability to understand that the world is not high school
  • You can't send anyone to jail for stuff they did while in political office. It's like a amnesty on all that stuff, right?
  • A desire to stick it to the real enemy: the pink Liberal commie bike-sipping, latte-riding elite
  • A burning desire for validation which can only come from throwing things at the less fortunate, either candy canes (Bad Santa aka Rob) or $20 bills (Doug)
 
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