I've suggested before R Ford's gameplan is thus....polling the majority of votes in Scarborough, Etobicoke and York (approx 57%) that will give him 23.66%, picking up 18% (the dedicated Ford Nationals) in Toronto and East York which will give him 5.85% and as I've said before the election will be won or lost on how North York votes...R Ford is hoping for an even split (30%) thereby giving him 7.8%
Added all up 23.66+5.85+7.8 will give 37.31% of the popular vote and that should be enough with a 3% cushion for relection...considering it will be a three way break (Ford/Chow/Tory)
Explanation
Scarborough, Etobicoke and York are 41.5% of Toronto's population X 57 = 23.66%
Toronto, East York is 32.5% of Toronto's popularion X 18 = 5.85%
North York is approx 26% of Toronto's population X 30 = 7.8%
Oh, just in passing R Ford wants to keep K Stintz and D Soknacki in the race thus diluting any swing to Tory....Chow is doing enough to shoot herself in the foot, she needs no assistance....
Secondly R Ford doesn't have get a true majority from S/E/Y he can poll as low as 47.5% in those areas and still expect to be more than competitive