[Streety McCarface]

Is it?

Toronto has basically been booming for decades.

You'd have to multiply the amount of activity on that corridor currently by many times (including commercial development) to justify a subway along that route.

In any case, it doesn't really matter. The subway is already there and Sheppard is relatively close to STC - that's what would make it the most sensible line to extend into Scarborough.

Concord Park Place was planned back in 2005-2006, it only started getting built in like 2014. Of course Bessarion and Leslie's ridership levels are bad, their planned developments haven't matured.

Admittedly, housing wasn't as hurt in Toronto during those times, but they were still noticeable, with most new development still being focussed on areas being redeveloped at the time (downtown and North York Centre). Gas prices may have played a role as well, but there certainly weren't the number of developments under construction anywhere in the city that are now. Now, we are seeing a significant portion of that development shift to the Sheppard Corridor (West and East of Bayview), VMC, Science Centre, and Midtown.

Once ridership of the line gets to about 70K PPD, I'd argue the line, as is, is justified in being a subway. I don't even think that'll take more than 10 years to complete. This is the addition of 10K users to the line, meaning peak usage would increase by 5K PPHPD, bringing peak usage into the double digits — The grey area between Light Rail and subway.

 

[syn]

Their ridership levels are bad because it's a low density suburban route largely consisting of single family homes.

A few condo projects won't change that. It's going to take many decades before this is a subway worthy corridor.

I also wouldn't be surprised if the Eglinton LRT pulls riders off Sheppard.

 

[Streety McCarface]

Their ridership levels are bad because it's a low density suburban route largely consisting of single family homes.

A few condo projects won't change that. It's going to take many decades before this is a subway worthy corridor.

I also wouldn't be surprised if the Eglinton LRT pulls riders off Sheppard.

50K is arguably not a bad standard for rapid transit (especially a stub) anywhere in North America, it's only mediocre in Toronto because we have outrageously high standards for transit, even in highly car-dependent areas.

The corridor initially had 20K riders per day, the subway doubled that within 2 years to 40K, and we're now somewhat stagnant at around 50K. If you go to Leslie Station today during rush hour it's not nearly as empty as it was even 2 years ago. You can regularly see 20-50 people on the platform waiting at a time. It's not just condos that influence ridership, but congestion, gas prices, and the community moving in. All those are making transit more and more enticing to the average user.

Eglinton will not pull riders off Sheppard, the only riders it may entice are 25/925 users that are south of York Mills Road, and even then, that's not a significant number of people. Even there, the fastest way downtown is to take the York Mills bus West to Yonge st then take Line 1 South, so no one there is really going north to Don Mills Station unless they're actually going to North York. A subway station can only bring in riders from about a km from the station itself, with bus commuters hovering in at about 3 km. Since almost every sheppard station doesn't have adequate bus connections, ridership won't be lost from Bayview-Leslie, and barely any if any will be lost from Don Mills Station.

The distance between Eglinton and Sheppard is 6.3km, no one that is taking Line 4 today is going to take Line 5 in the future over line 4.

 

[syn]

We've had this discussion before. As I've pointed out in the past, the Spadina Streetcar, a relatively short walk from the University Line, has comparable ridership.

Development along that corridor is actually greater than it is along Sheppard.

We don't have outrageously high standards, we have a dearth of subway lines, especially where they're necessary. Sheppard ends at a mall, right off the highway. That's where the vast majority of riders come from. It's an express route to the Yonge Line, but the stations in between are all among the least used in the system. Comparing 2015 stats to 2018, Bayview, Bessarion and Leslie all lost riders, while Don Mills had a big boost.

What would Sheppard's ridership be like with another subway line a short walk away?

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

Their ridership levels are bad because it's a low density suburban route largely consisting of single family homes.

A few condo projects won't change that. It's going to take many decades before this is a subway worthy corridor.

I also wouldn't be surprised if the Eglinton LRT pulls riders off Sheppard.

Sheppard is far from Eglinton. And it won't be a couple, you have, Warden, Birchmount, Pharmacy, Victoria Park (Consumers), Kennedy, Agincourt GO. That's enough places for large scale gentrification.

 

[asher__jo]

Sheppard is far from Eglinton. And it won't be a couple, you have, Warden, Birchmount, Pharmacy, Victoria Park (Consumers), Kennedy, Agincourt GO. That's enough places for large scale gentrification.

It'll be very interesting to see how rapidly Eglinton develops. There are already a ton of projects planned.

 

[Alex L]

Their ridership levels are bad because it's a low density suburban route largely consisting of single family homes.

A few condo projects won't change that. It's going to take many decades before this is a subway worthy corridor.

What would it take to be a subway-worthy corridor? What if it was a 'rapid' cross-town route that was an alternative to the 401? End points being the airport and the STC? The stations could be at one-mile points on the main roads. Would that generate enough users to cover its operating costs? I realize it would be hugely expensive, (aren't they all?) but it might be a solution to the conundrum of operating a subway with low local density.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

It'll be very interesting to see how rapidly Eglinton develops. There are already a ton of projects planned.

Eglinton is going to change really fast once it opens.

 

[syn]

What would it take to be a subway-worthy corridor? What if it was a 'rapid' cross-town route that was an alternative to the 401? End points being the airport and the STC? The stations could be at one-mile points on the main roads. Would that generate enough users to cover its operating costs? I realize it would be hugely expensive, (aren't they all?) but it might be a solution to the conundrum of operating a subway with low local density.

Employment and residential density is what would make it a subway worthy corridor.

The subway solution for areas of low density is simple - don't build them. Utilize other effective forms of transit that make sense (buses, LRTs, expanded GO service, etc.).

 

[Streety McCarface]

We've had this discussion before. As I've pointed out in the past, the Spadina Streetcar, a relatively short walk from the University Line, has comparable ridership.

Development along that corridor is actually greater than it is along Sheppard.

We don't have outrageously high standards, we have a dearth of subway lines, especially where they're necessary. Sheppard ends at a mall, right off the highway. That's where the vast majority of riders come from. It's an express route to the Yonge Line, but the stations in between are all among the least used in the system. Comparing 2015 stats to 2018, Bayview, Bessarion and Leslie all lost riders, while Don Mills had a big boost.

What would Sheppard's ridership be like with another subway line a short walk away?

Spadina gets 43K PPD along a 6.2 km corridor, whereas Sheppard gets close to 51K over 5.5 km.

It's an apples to oranges comparison, they serve different needs. I'd argue the riders that the Sheppard line generates are more vital to the health of the city because those riders choose to not drive/own a car in a car-dependent area of the city, reducing the GHG and parking space required downtown. Spadina riders would either walk, bike, or take Line 1 instead. This is not to say that one is inherently more important to the network, but that they serve different needs. Alluding the 510 to be the greatest line in the city is disingenuous because it has far more stops, and serves a completely different market.

I recall having a discussion about the 2018 ridership numbers, and how a lot of the numbers are likely biased. Sheppard Yonge hasn't had a count in years, so Line 4's ridership is already understated, likely by between 3-5K passengers per day, and the conclusion that line 4 has a huge variability between day to day ridership, meaning it's hard to conclude whether Bayview, Bessarion, and Leslie's ridership is actually increasing. They only sample stations at one time of the year, and that can have a huge influence on the number of people that go through a station and accurate counts. All the stations have not seen increases/decreases greater than 3%, so you can't conclude that ridership is actually decreasing there, the r^2 values are just too low.

While not another subway, the York Mills bus and the Finch East bus are in very close proximity to it. Not the 800 meters between Spadina and University, but a fair 2 km between the subway and their main bus lines. Both have ridership levels between 20 and 30K passengers per day. While they extend beyond don mills, they'd have similar ridership to the Sheppard subway if Line 4 was built on either of the corridors. If you are living along those corridors, or close to them (within 500 m), it is faster to take the respective bus lines on each road to their respective bus terminals on Yonge street than it is to head to Line 4 and transfer there. This proves that ridership on the Sheppard line wouldn't really decrease if Finch or York Mills had subway lines running on them. Simply put, those using Line 4 already live really close to it, and those living close to their respective bus corridors choose to take their lines because it's what's faster for them.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

It doesn’t really matter what exactly the numbers are. As long as there are a half-dozen other projects generating more ridership, a Line 4 extension is really hard to justify.

 

[Alex L]

Employment and residential density is what would make it a subway worthy corridor.

The subway solution for areas of low density is simple - don't build them. Utilize other effective forms of transit that make sense (buses, LRTs, expanded GO service, etc.).

But if you wanted to build ridership on that line, and as an alternative to using cars, making the investment worthwhile, maybe a different approach is required. Instead of serving the immediate vicinity along the line, make it serve a greater area as a whole and the large airport employment destination? In fact, if it went a bit west of the airport into Mississauga, I think that would be useful too. Myself, I do not see the Eglinton LRT helping to bring persons to the airport from distance. It has too many stops and is oriented to serve the immediate vicinity along the line. We have the UP express from downtown to the airport, but nothing cross-town to compete in travel time with the 401 at normal times. To encourage transit riders, travel times also matter too. Right now, the Sheppard line is basically a stub of what should be, of what is truly useful. Why it never went at least as far east as Vic Park never made sense to me. I am not saying other priorities aren't higher priorities, just discussing Sheppard.

 

[syn]

Spadina gets 43K PPD along a 6.2 km corridor, whereas Sheppard gets close to 51K over 5.5 km.

It's an apples to oranges comparison, they serve different needs. I'd argue the riders that the Sheppard line generates are more vital to the health of the city because those riders choose to not drive/own a car in a car-dependent area of the city, reducing the GHG and parking space required downtown. Spadina riders would either walk, bike, or take Line 1 instead. This is not to say that one is inherently more important to the network, but that they serve different needs. Alluding the 510 to be the greatest line in the city is disingenuous because it has far more stops, and serves a completely different market.

It's only an apples to oranges comparison in that they're different classes of transit. That's exactly the point though.

Spadina has comparable ridership despite:
- being a lower capacity, above ground line (streetcar)
- less than 800m from the University subway line

Spadina functions much like the subway does for most riders. The biggest pickups and dropoffs, by far, are at major intersections (College, Queen, etc.). The vast majority of those heading north are going to Spadina station.

Sheppard has no 'competition' in that it's the only rapid transit option in the area - and it's basically used as an express line between Don Mills and Yonge, with very little activity in between. This hasn't changed in nearly 20 years.

I recall having a discussion about the 2018 ridership numbers, and how a lot of the numbers are likely biased. Sheppard Yonge hasn't had a count in years, so Line 4's ridership is already understated, likely by between 3-5K passengers per day, and the conclusion that line 4 has a huge variability between day to day ridership, meaning it's hard to conclude whether Bayview, Bessarion, and Leslie's ridership is actually increasing. They only sample stations at one time of the year, and that can have a huge influence on the number of people that go through a station and accurate counts. All the stations have not seen increases/decreases greater than 3%, so you can't conclude that ridership is actually decreasing there, the r^2 values are just too low.

There are numbers from 2015, 2016 and 2018 available. The 2018 numbers show a clear drop off from those previous years.

They aren't going to improve dramatically anytime soon as the area remains decidedly suburban in nature.

For some context, The Well on Spadina is going to add 8,000 jobs and 3,000 residents. City reports from 2017 indicate there were just under 16,000 jobs on the Sheppard subway corridor. That means The Well is adding half of the employment on the entire Sheppard subway corridor. That's just one project.

Spadina is already well ahead of the Sheppard subway corridor and continues to grow at a faster rate.

 

[syn]

But if you wanted to build ridership on that line, and as an alternative to using cars, making the investment worthwhile, maybe a different approach is required. Instead of serving the immediate vicinity along the line, make it serve a greater area as a whole and the large airport employment destination? In fact, if it went a bit west of the airport into Mississauga, I think that would be useful too. Myself, I do not see the Eglinton LRT helping to bring persons to the airport from distance. It has too many stops and is oriented to serve the immediate vicinity along the line. We have the UP express from downtown to the airport, but nothing cross-town to compete in travel time with the 401 at normal times. To encourage transit riders, travel times also matter too. Right now, the Sheppard line is basically a stub of what should be, of what is truly useful. Why it never went at least as far east as Vic Park never made sense to me. I am not saying other priorities aren't higher priorities, just discussing Sheppard.

I think the problem with that is the huge cost to extend it to he airport. It would certainly attract more riders from a larger area, I'm just not sure it would justify the cost. In a perfect world that would be great, but the actual business case for a line on Sheppard isn't that compelling.

The problem, again, comes down to density.

 

[11th]

While not another subway, the York Mills bus and the Finch East bus are in very close proximity to it. Not the 800 meters between Spadina and University, but a fair 2 km between the subway and their main bus lines. Both have ridership levels between 20 and 30K passengers per day. While they extend beyond don mills, they'd have similar ridership to the Sheppard subway if Line 4 was built on either of the corridors. If you are living along those corridors, or close to them (within 500 m), it is faster to take the respective bus lines on each road to their respective bus terminals on Yonge street than it is to head to Line 4 and transfer there. This proves that ridership on the Sheppard line wouldn't really decrease if Finch or York Mills had subway lines running on them. Simply put, those using Line 4 already live really close to it, and those living close to their respective bus corridors choose to take their lines because it's what's faster for them.

I think from any location east of Warden and north of the 401, it'd be faster to transfer to an extended line 4, otherwise busing all the way to Yonge is faster.

Sheppard has no 'competition' in that it's the only rapid transit option in the area - and it's basically used as an express line between Don Mills and Yonge, with very little activity in between. This hasn't changed in nearly 20 years.

Agree it's only an express line between Don Mills and Yonge. The original purpose was to serve north Scarborough - obviously that didn't happen, and buses today have to get through the gridlock between Vic Park and 404. The old Sheppard express bus ran express to Victoria Park for a good reason.
The intermediate stations were only built because they are at intersections of main arterials, or vast plots of developable land.