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The numbers are kind of confusing. I was thinking if Foothills MD was added it would be 80 some K, and then you add on the 25K extra growth above Ottawa's that we had last year, subtract the 7000 less than Ottawa we had last year, it comes out close to the 110K difference we are at now. But that would also mean that Edmonton would have had to have done the same thing as they were showing as 1,480,000 last year. They also state they are using 2016 maps. Who knows.
Oh if they're using 2016 maps, that would be why Ottawa is so far behind. The only reason they surpassed us in the census was due to a massive enlargement of their CMA. This being negated from the counts recently posted here would be the reason for the discrepancy. However, Calgary will have already re-surpassed them by a considerable margin (20,000+?) with these new numbers.
 
I believe Ottawa's numbers look correct and jibe with what we've seen over the past year. The latest numbers are including Ottawa's increase of 25K and appear to also include their increase last year due to the CMA area addition. Calgary's numbers are what look funny. They have included the 50K bump from last year, but also another 77K (going from last year's 1,481,000 to saying that we were 1,558,000 last year). We're not sure whether the 77k is an undercount or a boundary change, as the 77K is almost exactly what Foothills MD would be. Ottawa's increase appears to include the boundary addition from last year, but might not be the case either, as last year they were reported as having 1,488,000 and now statscan is saying 1,498,000. That 10K difference and out 77K difference looks be undercounts. Undercounts seems the most plausible explanation as the site does mention they are using 2016 boundaries. Also Edmonton is showing higher than was reported last year, but there has been no boundary change there and won't be for quite some time.

Whatever the case is, it will be the same for all cities, so Calgary will have passed Ottawa regardless, and is back in 4th spot. The true numbers should be somewhere around Calgary at 1,608,000 and Ottawa at 1,560,000 (due to last year's boundary addition)

What's impressive to me, is that sometime in the near future we'll see Foothills added, and it'll be another huge bump. We could see Calgary hit the 2 million mark fairly soon.
 
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I saw a conversation on Twitter where someone confirmed they are undercount numbers. That said, Calgary still takes back 4th place even with Ottawa's area change. The Ottawa border change to include Armprior and Carelton Place added 64K to their total giving them a 7K lead over Calgary, but Calgary's growth this past year was 24K higher, and would put Ottawa at about 1.56M like Surreplaces had put it at.
 
Calgary hitting 2 million prior to census 2031 is highly plausible at this point if Foothills is added in 2026. 2 million by 2032 estimate if it isn’t added. (Approx 40,000 per year).

Equally impressive is the fact that Alberta will be hitting 5 million almost simultaneously.
 
Housing starts in some major cities 2021 vs 2022.
1682050953143.png

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Source https://www03.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/hmip-pimh/en#Profile/1/1/Canada
 
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Trends in Calgary housing types by housing starts 2010-2022. It would be nice to have numbers from before 2010 but with the numbers we have we can see that from 2014 on apartment style units took off and have been mostly higher than the numbers for SFH's.
The first quarter of 2023 is no different from 2022.
Apartment 1715
SFH 1036
Row Home 506
Semi-detached 370

Calgary housing starts by type 2010-2022.png

Source https://www03.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/hmip-pimh/en#Profile/1/1/Canada
 
We’re seeing a real non-Calgary trend with apartment housing starts higher than single-family home starts for seven of the last nine years. And with the price of housing and the interest rates, I don’t see that changing anytime soon.
 
...and apartment housing starts as a percentage of total housing starts. Quebec city loves their apartments.
The median household income in Quebec city is 70,000, compared to 98,000 in Calgary (from 2021 census). And the absolute average household income for QC is 88,,000 compared to 129,000 in Calgary.
Prices for housing is more in Calgary but not much more (about 15% more)
 
Most Calgarians don’t realize the relative ease of buying a SFH here compared to other cities. In Toronto, Vancouver, or in Quebec a large number of people live in apartments because it’s the only affordable option. Same here to some degree, but people have more options and often live apartment style because they want the lifestyle or the location.
The downside is copious amounts of sprawl, but you can see that it’s changing here too as SFH’s are becoming relatively more expensive.
 

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